I thought this piece, by Jeff Goldberg in yesterday’s NY Times, was a very good assessment of Benjamin Netanyahu’s state of mind. But when the two meet today, I don’t think Barack Obama will be buying. Several Administration sources have told me that:
1. Obama isn’t going to take his eye off the two-state solution, especially the need for Israel to stop building illegal settlements (and, as I’ve pointed out before, all the Israeli settlements on Palestinian lands are illegal). It is amazing to me–well, actually not so amazing–that Israel’s American Likudnik defenders will go on and on about Iran’s provocations against Israel, which are absolutely real and undeniable, but never mention the constant Israeli provocation represented by the settlements, the settler highways, the wall. These are turning the West Bank into Swiss cheese. Every new settlement, each new settler, is perceived by Palestinians–with good reason–as an act of violence directed against them.
2. The US simply does not see Iran as the Crazy Mullah State that Netanyahu posits. Obama is intent on proceeding with the Iran negotiations, if the Iranians are amenable–which is still a significant if–after their June 12 elections. There is some debate in the Administration about strategy. The Iranians are going to want comprehensive talks about a range of issues, not just their uranium enrichment program…and it is uncertain, at this point, whether the Obama Administration will agree to the wider talks absent some progress on nukes. (Several weeks ago, Ahmadinejad promised a nuclear offer–which hasn’t been forthcoming.) I think the best chance for success is if the US proposes comprehensive talks at the ministerial level–say Dennis Ross meeting with the Supreme Leader’s foreign policy adviser, Ali Larijiani–which also include immediate bilateral meetings about Iran’s nuclear program. There are plenty of crucial issues that require immediate bilateral attention. For example, there are ways the Iranians could be very helpful to our Afghanistan war effort. Among other things, Iran probably offers the fastest, safest potential supply route for our troops fighting in southern Afghanistan.
In any case, Mr. Netanyahu should know by day’s end that the future of US-Iran relations will be decided in Washington and Tehran, not Jerusalem.