Scary Numbers of the Day

Not really scary. Read this: http://www.salon.com/opinion/feature/2009/05/12/social_security/index.html
Let’s make sure any SS or Medicare reform comes with budget reform, especially MAJOR cuts in Defense (which consume more of our budget than anything else.) If we want to get serious, we need to where the money is.

Does anyone on here seriously think that by the time they will retire that both Medicare and Social Security will be viable? Obama would have to not only cut Defense, but every other entitlement program just to keep pace with the retiring boomers yet to come.

From Wikipedia:
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In each year since 1982, OASDI tax receipts, interest payments and other income have exceeded benefit payments and other expenditures, most recently (in 2004) by more than $150 billion. [90] As the “baby boomers” move out of the work force and into retirement, however, it is anticipated that expenses will come to exceed Social Security tax revenues if there are no changes in current law concerning taxes, benefits, and the retirement age.
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It would appear that the rollercoaster you describe as careening toward insolvency is in fact still ratcheting up the ramp.

Social Security is not “careening towards insolvency.” It is taking in LESS of a surplus, perhaps, and shortening the time, from 40 years to MAYBE 36 years, when it will have to reduce payments by 20%, if nothing is done, like raising the wage ceiling between now and #% YEARS FROM NOW.
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Medicare and Social Security are completely different programs. Medicare may be in big immediate trouble, but Social Security is not. Get your facts straight. And watch that alarmist, inflammaory terminology, when the facts don’t back up your assertions, Karen.

“the Medicare and Social Security trust funds, which are careening even faster toward insolvency”
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Sheesh-what temperate language.

Social Security’s reserves now face depletion in 2037, four years sooner than the previous projection of 2041.
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GOOD LORD THAT’S ONLY 28 YEARS AWAY. WE MUST ACT NOW OR LOSE EVERYTHING FOREVER.

Let’s:
– raise the retirement age by 6 months a year for the next 20 years,
– means-test benefits, and
– eliminate the regressive $96K cap on taxable SS earnings.
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Scariness over. Careening ended.
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Next pandemic?

Can’t we just blame Bush?

http://www.political-buzz.com/

JNS, stenographer extraordinaire.

Remember the good old days, when folks talked about how it would make fiscal sense to allow social security recipients to invest in the stock market? Ah, the memories.

You people had better pray to God that global warming kills us all before Social Security runs out, because once that day comes, we’re going to be seeing packs of cannibal Golden Girls roaming the streets.
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Not to be alarmist or anything. Just sayin’.

My language on this was not unlike Tim Geithner’s, guys.

I see nothing in that piece suggesting that SS is “careening” toward insolvency. In fact, just the opposite. The language in the piece was markedly more measured than yours, Karen.

Also, losing four years worth of solvency in one year counts as careening in my book, and that medicare date isn’t so far away.

Right, because Tim Geitner is the very picture of authority, wisdom, and knowledge.
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Listening to a bunch of Washington politicians who are admittedly in the pocket of Wall Street talk about Social Security is like listening to DC pols advocate for weapons systems.
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Oh, look, the North Koreans might – one day – build a missile that might strike North America. QUICK – let’s invest money that could go into Social Security (or schools or health care) into Star Wars.
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Let’s remember that every time a politician opens his mouth that he is serving someone’s interest.

From the piece KT linked to-
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The Treasury secretary, Timothy F. Geithner, said in a statement on Tuesday that the new projections underscored the need for a bipartisan approach to shoring up the two programs, through what he said would be “difficult but achievable changes.”

“That is why even as this president has focused on pulling our nation out of economic recession, he has made clear his commitment to working in a bipartisan way to address the long-term health of Medicare and Social Security” and, he added, “not simply pass on our debts.”
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Maybe there is more to his statement where his language is not unlike KT’s. But not from what we were sent to.

Since Geithner is close to Pete Petersen, whose whole mission in life is to dismantle social security, I’m not surprised. (Petersen was on the Fed Board who hired him for NY Fed job). I’m only pushing back because I’m so sick of this constant refrain – Social Security is going broke! It just isn’t true. Hyperbole does not help engender rational discussion. Did anyone go to the link I posted earlier?

Key quote
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The shorter deadline for Social Security insolvency does not mean that future retirees would receive nothing after that date.
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The trustees noted that even when the Social Security trust fund is exhausted in 2037, tax revenues will presumably continue to come in. But benefits would be limited to the amount paid in that year, and would probably continue at only 75 percent of their promised level — 3 percentage points less than was projected in last year’s report.

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Tim Geitner’s words or not Social Security is good for at least a couple of decades or more.

I also find it odd that the same people who insist that Social Security must be fixed RIGHT NOW are the same people who think we can wait to get serious about global warming.
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And my guess, sadly, is that Obama is content to kick global warming down the road while being willing to sacrifice Social Security to get a vote from Susan Collins on sending a few hundred billion dollars to Goldman Sachs.

Worst-case global climate change look at scenarios 90+ years in the future- doesn’t mean that now isn’t a good time to start thinking about preventive measures (though I agree that doomsday language isn’t always the best idea).

Obama has stated that he intends to raise the wage ceiling on SS. That would give back that purported 4 year ESTIMATE and much much more. Geithner may want to give the SS trust fund to Wall Street, but Obama, the boss, does not. And yet, the DC press buys this alarmist BS hook, line, and sinker, every single time. Evidently they have no head for numbers nor analytical ability. The numbers and the timeline is very, very clear, and demonstrates unequivocally that there is NO Social Security crisis. There is a need to act sometime in the next ten years in a very measured way.

Sheesh, wait 25 minutes to click the submit button and suddenly your comment is careening towards irrelevance.

From pobo’s link in the very first comment.
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” From annual report to annual report, the two key dates — the date at which Social Security payouts from the Trust Fund exceed payroll tax intake, and the date at which the Trust Fund is exhausted — advance or retreat, depending on the contemporary economy and changes in calculations. For example, in 1997 payouts were supposed to exceed revenues in 2012 and the Trust Fund was supposed to be exhausted in 2029. By 2004, the trustees were more optimistic: The two dates were 2018 and 2042, respectively. If as a result of today’s bad economic conditions future growth rates are revised and the two dates are slightly closer to the present in the latest report, should you be concerned? No. Relax. When estimates vary so much, it would be crazy to try to make public policy for the United States of nearly half a century from now.”
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So yeah, maybe careening doesn’t convey the situation.

You and Geithner can come join me in my Social Security Survival Bunker, KT.
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But you’ll have to leave the kids behind. They’re weak.

Let’s make the retirement age from this day forward 152 qualify for medicare at the same age. Problem solved. Everybody chill.

Captain Morgan’s Private Stock is teh awesome.

Heyyyyyy I can see numbers again! For the moment…

sgw,
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Captain Morgan will be beating a tattoo on the back of your skull tomorrow morning unless you drink plenty of water before hitting the rack tonight.
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This is a publice service announcement brought to you by the B.O.O.Z.E. Council

LOL not to worry Friar, I have been out of practice for awhile but I am old hat at this. Still I just love the private stock. I don’t even like rum much either but I needed it today. Hey High Sherriffs can you keep the damn numbers in the middle please? Thanks in advance.

@ sg, YES. Private stock is the best.
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AND, if I could opt out of social security at my young age, I would do it in a second. No hesitation. I’d rather put that money toward a retirement program that’s a sure thing.

Hey, apolly, I’ve got some hedge funds that I think you’d like. right up your alley. They’re a sure thing, too. You can’t lose.

Yes, that’s exactly what I meant James. You read my mind.

apollyon
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On behalf of my now ravaged 401K allow me to tell you that’s not a wise decision. The greatest thing about SS is that its not sensitive to market conditions. Don’t forget that 401Ks are supposedly “safe” investment vehicles. Bull effin sh*t. What you would want to do is have both to cover yourself but if you had to have just one choose SS.

That should have read “not AS sensitive to market conditions.

Yes and by the time I retire (let’s say the retirement age is 70 when I’m there…it will likely be much higher but let’s just say 70) that will be in the year 2068. I have a hard time believing that 1- Social Security will still be solvent by then and 2- If it is, that it will provide a reasonable amount of income a month (in other words, enough to live on).
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401K’s are sensitive to the markets but the long term trend is for them to increase, just like the stock market, despite ups and downs, unlike the way SS is going. I plan to start a Roth IRA as soon as I graduate college and put in the max on that every year. I don’t know how old everyone else on here is, but I would gander that it’s much easier to trust SS if you’re going to retire in 20 or so years than in 60 years.

Hell, I bet I’d have better luck putting the money that they take for SS and just putting it in a regular ol’ savings account.

Oh and I had a lapse in math skills on post 34. Should have been 2058 and 50 years. My bad. (The 50 year thing is approx., it’s really 49 years).

Um, is anyone even looking at that medicare number?

apollyon
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The problem is of course timing. I can tell you that if you had saved all your pennies and invested your SS money up until last year you would be up sh*t creek right now. And there is no way to predict if your retirement is going come during an upturn or a downturn in the market. SS will be viable probably forever because the only alternative would be to scrap it and that sh*t will NEVER be politically viable. You don’t really have a choice anyway right now but if the day comes that you do I am telling you that you want to be able to invest on your own and have money sitting in SS. I understand that as a younger person right now it seems like the market is great and SS sucks but the older you get the more you will come to appreciate SS and the more your eyes will be opened to the pitfalls of the market.
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That’s spoken of course as a ripe old 35 yr old.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/01/15/AR2009011504114.html
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But the president-elect exuded confidence that his economic team will succeed where others have not.
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“Social Security, we can solve,” he said, waving his left hand. “The big problem is Medicare, which is unsustainable. . . . We can’t solve Medicare in isolation from the broader problems of the health-care system.”
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Medicare, the government health program for retirees and the disabled, is projected to be insolvent by 2019, according to the most recent report by the Social Security and Medicare trustees. Over the next two decades, Medicare spending is expected to double, consuming nearly one-quarter of the federal budget.

KT
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I can’t speak for everyone but I already knew Medicare was phucked. Thats why its not really that scary. Its also why healthcare reform has to get done come hell or high water and really its another talking point the Obama administration can use to help push it through.

Focus, people, focus! Med-i-care.

“Medicare’s hospital insurance trust fund will be exhausted in 2017″ is this sentence the same as this “Medicare, the government health program for retirees and the disabled, is projected to be insolvent by 2019″?
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Are those two the same as “The trustees project adequate funding for a separate Medicare trust fund that pays doctors’ bills and other outpatient expenses, known as Part B.”?
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“Focus, people, focus! Med-i-care.”
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KT’s right! Whoever conflated the issues and referred to SS as careening toward insolvency owes everyone an apology.

P-NNTO: 2019 was last year’s projection. it is now 2017. Part B is in better shape, but Part A is hurting, and the whole thing is going to eat the federal budget by the time most of our commenters need it.

of course, i’ll probably be dead by then, so what the hell…

KT I just think if we, as a nation, are going to have a serious discussion about Medicare the media needs to do better.
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No conflating SS and Medicare. No using Medicare as shorthand for Medicare’s Hospital Insurance Trust Fund.

SG, that does make sense that perspective on this could change for me when I’m older. Noted.
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Medicare IS in much more troulbe than SS, much of this is due to the prescription drug benefit. Thanks George Bush.

Yes, we have all (on the liberal side) been aware that Medicare is careening towards insolvency. It isn’t helpful, Karen, when you reporters tack on Social Security and equate the two programs. The Medicare program is why we liberals are so loudly and obnoxiously trying to win the health care reform debate, despite the barriers that you reporters throw up to deter us. Maybe you can be a good role model to your peers and quit conflating Social Security with Medicare. Two different programs, two different problems, of different orders of magnitude.Then we can have a constructive debate about how to solve the Medicare problem and the larger health care problems in this country.
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apolly, you have been taken in by the legacy media and the Republicans if you think that SS won’t “be there for you” when you retire. It is backed by the full force of credit of the United States of America in Treasury bonds. The only way it won’t “be there” is if the United States of America won’t “be there.” Whether it will be enough to live on by itself is another question. You are well advised to invest in 401ks and/or 427s or whatever and start planning for your retirement now. If you do that, you will be a millionaire, if you invest wisely. That should provide for a comfortable retirement. But the there are no guarantees in the capital market, and we see now that corporations have robbed their own employees’ retirement funds. So your SS retirement is your BEDROCK security. Everything else can go away. I urge you to divorce yourself from the lousy, sloppy reporting of the legacy press and the Republican talking points and learn this stuff by your own research.

Medicare IS in much more troulbe than SS, much of this is due to the prescription drug benefit. Thanks George Bush.
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There is hope for you yet young one.
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Obama could, of course, solve Medicare in one simple stroke and make it the public plan that anyone can buy into. Taking the beneficiaries from 40 million to 300 million (with 140 million plus paying in) would reduce any insolvency issues to pretty nuch nil. I wish he wasn’t just toying with that option and would just DO IT.

Look, J-LA, the two numbers were announced in the same report. So I reported them both. The excerpt that I used was pretty clear, I think. But you, as always, insist that I am throwing up barriers to deter you from your pursuit of truth and justice. Whatever. And the fact is, something does need to be done about Social Security as well. And as the President has pointed out so many times, it will be easier to do it now than later.

The rich are going to take one for the team. It won’t be their idea and they won’t like it…but too F’ing bad. The ceiling will be at least doubled. There will be means testing and we might even have to add another year onto the retirement age. The tax rates will probably go back to where they were under Reagan (at least for those making 250k+ a year). The more well-to-do will hoot and holler, but it won’t do them any good. With the republican party fading away into regional party status, they won’t have the votes to stop any of it. They can talk secession all they want. If they’re stupid enough (highly possible) to even try something like that, we’ll have people lining up to join the military for $15 an hour to bring them back in. For the ones who’d rather die than be a part of the new America…that works for me too.

The Medicare program is why we liberals are so loudly and obnoxiously trying to win the health care reform debate, despite the barriers that you reporters throw up to deter us.
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Finally, J-LA, I don’t think I need to be lectured by you about doing my part to win this health care debate.

Well if I continue to live and work in Germany, then Medicare bankruptcy won’t hurt me. However, I’m not a selfish Bar Steward so I guess the question for now is, will it be possible to merge Medicare reform in with wider Healthcare reform? Even if the answer to that question is yes, it will involve some kind of socialized scheme, because the only way this works is if the young who don’t get sick very often pick up the “slack” for the old who require more regular medical care.

Never waste a good crisis. A single payer system might start to look awfully good to people if they can be convinced that SS and Medicare depend on nationalizing healthcare. How do you think the elderly (and soon to be elderly) will vote?

Sacred: 65 was set at the retirement age in 1935. 1935!!! It was set when people living past that age was a complete miracle. Now it is barely considered old. When you have folks living until their 80s and even 90s routinely then your age of retirement is totally out of whack. There are many many individuals who do want to work well past 65 but can’t due to arcane pension/401(k) rules and regulations. Let’s get the retirement age actually reflecting reality and then we can discuss fixing SS.

of course, i’ll probably be dead by then, so what the hell…
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C’mon KT have some faith. I know we’re being rough on you today but you should be a little more optimistic. I get the feeling you’re gonna have great-grand Swampkids in your future and you’ll be more than around to see them.

The recession is taking its toll on the Medicare and Social Security trust funds, which are careening even faster toward insolvency:
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Karen, You wrote this? Well, I’d say you irresponsibly conflated the two programs in an alarmist manner, with an alarmist title. The piece you linked to did not do that. YOU wrote this and you should take responsibility for it and post an update. You can be annoyed and irritated with me all you want but it is your responsibility as a reporter to clarify this for your readers. You don’t need to do it for me, because I know better, but for people like appolly who believe cr@p like this, and for other readers who still look to you reporters in the mainstream media and think you are writing factual items.
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Then instead of clarifying your sensationalist, alarmist and inaccurate post, you do a comment for US to “focus on Medicare.” Yes, well, we HAVE been focused on the Medicare crisis. And it IS a barrier when you do sloppy, inaccurate stuff like this. You force us to spend time trying to debunk your inaccurate statements on Social Security instead of talking about the Medicare crisis. And I’m particular surprised at you, Karen, since you have an MBA, and because health care reform is one of “your” issues.

“It was set when people living past that age was a complete miracle.”
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Unless I am mistaken, 65 was the average life expectancy when it was set as the retirement age, not “a complete miracle”.

Our posts crossed.

Alas, J-LA, I am not surprised at you.

i will repeat: Medicare and Social Security are careening even faster toward insolvency.

Here is an item about how the retirement age was set for the SS program.
Social Security Online – HISTORY

I am truly sorry that I get under your skin like that, Karen. I mean that, without snark. I’m actually a pretty nice guy, my friends and family tell me.

*Sigh*
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1) Social Security and Medicare are completely different programs.
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2) Social Security isn’t “careening even faster toward insolvency” (you can quibble about careening if you like but since it’s not going to become anything like insolvent anytime soon, it sounds like hyperbole).
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3) The only thing that unites the two programs is that they are both called “entitlements” by rich elites, “conservatives” and corporatist libertarians trying to undermine public support and faith in two very effective federal social safety net programs (you should know better, Karen).
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4) Healthcare reform is urgent and important, Social Security changes are not yet urgent.
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5) Stick with healthcare reform and Medicare and you won’t get hurt.

yutsano: I can retire next June at 55 with a full retirement. I’m not going to, but the option is there.

This is from the actual trustee report
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Social Security could be brought into actuarial balance over the next 75 years with changes equivalent to an immediate 16 percent increase in the payroll tax (from a rate of 12.4 percent to 14.4 percent) or an immediate reduction in benefits of 13 percent or some combination of the two.

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So basically its already known what needs to be done to “fix” Social Security but its probably not politically doable in the middle of a recession. This means to my thinking that it is not “careening” anywhere. Even the report states that:
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This increase is due primarily to the recession, slightly lower estimates for real GDP after the economy recovers in 2015, and faster reductions in mortality rates

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Which again means that current conditions are affecting the outlook and if the economy bounces back faster the outlook could improve. Which also means it isn’t urgent as the word “careening” would suggest. If I said a car was “careening” usually you would expect a crash before almost 30 years from now. Besides that, conflating medicare with SS is problematic on its face because their projected insolvencies are supposed to occur 20 years apart.
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Now at this point its pretty much a consensus from several different regular well informed commenters that SS is not an immediate threat, so I have to ask why your are pushing back so hard Karen? Is it so important to you that we not describe the context of your post as irresponsible that you would rather dig in and argue everyone down, than allow even for a moment that maybe, just maybe the characterization WAS over the top as most of us have asserted? I am being for real here. Do you really think that every single person who has complained is just being an ass or is somehow against you? And if not wouldn’t it behoove you to maybe allow for the fact that you might have misstated the situation? I don’t think anyone is saying you did it for malicious reasons or to try to purposely mislead us but damn everybody is wrong some time you know?

I think we’re all missing the very last line in the paragraph that says “The projections assume that there are no changes in current benefits, policies and tax rates”. We’ve all gone under the assuption that there WILL be changes when the article bases the figures on no changes. Apples and oranges. First time I’ve ever used that. Maybe the last.

I don’t think anyone is saying you did it for malicious reasons or to try to purposely mislead us but damn everybody is wrong some time you know?
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Seemed worth repeating for emphasis. From time to time we all do and say something which is revealed, upon reflection, to have been inaccurate or misleading or unfair or just dumb. I prefer my crow broiled, but I will eat it steamed if that’s the way it’s cooked. Happens to me often enough.

“I prefer my crow broiled, but I will eat it steamed if that’s the way it’s cooked.”
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I actually find it quite tasty. Every time I eat some I know in my heart that I just learned something.

Some of my life’s most beloved precepts were learned from watching Mystery Science Theater 3000.

I just thought my image of the roller-coaster edging slowly up to the top was cool.
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You guys can argue all you want.
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FWIW, I guess the reason I’m less worried about Medicare is because I’m confident that some form of health care reform WILL PASS. If it turns out to be a lousy law, it can be changed but at least the baseline of consumer expectation will have moved towards more inclusive coverage.

FT: Eating crow and THEN commenting about MST3K? That’s cannibalism big guy.

In fact, I think it was Crow who made the reference:
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“Would you like your portion of crow broiled, or steamed?”
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But now that you mention it, it does sound kind of creepy.

Okay y’all did it now. I know out there in the tubes is a recipe collection for crow. When I get home from work tonight I’m gonna hunt for it and I refuse to be held responsible for the consequences.

yutsano: Did you just admit that you’re posting from work?

yutsano: Did you just admit that you’re posting from work?
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It gets better: my boss knows I do and is fine with it! Hey it’s something to do in between calls and there are dead periods where I work! Like tonight, I literally did nothing for the last 28 minutes of my shift.

As promised: crow recipes! (scroll down a bit there’s an interesting selection available) It is unknown if another fowl can be substituted for any of these.
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http://www.crowbusters.com/recipes.htm

A good rule of thumb is to never eat anything that talks. And talks and talks and talks.