Arlen Specter Aftershocks

I think the only way Ridge beats Toomey in the primary is if Toomey doesn’t run. Ridge would be a better opponent in the general election but the wingnuts are going to have their way in the primary. They aren’t thinking long term at all. From every bit of evidence I can see, they’re taking the approach that they’d rather lose than have someone run that doesn’t agree with them straight down the line.

One finding that hasn’t received much attention is this one -
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Even though voters approve 66 – 29 percent of the job President Barack Obama is doing, they say 52 – 44 percent that the Democratic dominance in the Senate is “dangerous” because President Obama and the Democrats would be able to steamroll over Republicans.
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I think this is a result of years of he said, she said coverage and the tut-tutting about over-reaching that was on display with Joe on the Sunday Chris Mathews show.
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In addition I think it shows the effectiveness of the Republican pearl clutching machine. I didn’t hear any concerns about steamrolling or over-reaching when that is precisely what the Repubs did during the first six years of the Bush admin.

And there’s no way Toomey abandons his run at this point unless somebody uncovers photos of him violating goats. If Toomey and the GOP base would have been happy with a moderate like Ridge, why wouldn’t they have just stuck with a sure thing like Specter? I mean, is there really a big difference between the two? Even if – and it’s a big IF – Ridge did somehow decide to run and won the GOP nomination, my guess is that Specter would still beat him. The only risk for the Dems re: a Ridge candidacy would be if Specter loses the Dem primary to somebody like Joe Sestak. That still may be a tight race but name recognition and past history with GOP voters statewide would probably give Ridge the edge in that race. Sestak, like Specter or any other Dem candidate, would smack Toomey in the general election.

“I think this is a result of years of he said, she said coverage and the tut-tutting about over-reaching that was on display with Joe on the Sunday Chris Mathews show.”

It’s also evidence of how the GOP, now that they are in the minority, have redefined the constitutional separation of powers. Today, in the GOP’s redefining of the founders’ intent, “checks and balances” means “don’t let one party control Congress and the WH”. They’d have you believe that what the founders really wanted was not a separation of the powers granted to the three branches of government in the constitution but split control of these branches by party. Of course, many of the founders who have preferred no political parties at all, but then nobody ever accused the GOP of historical accuracy or honesty.

My last past should read “founders WOULD have preferred…”

Maybe Toomey should become a Democrat too! He could even oppose EFCA and significant parts of healthcare reform. Also, if Tom Ridge is Senator I’m duct taping plastic all around my Pittsburgh home.

I’ve said before that if Specter proves his worth to the democrats by using his vote on cloture to allow a simple majority vote to take place, Obama will campaign for him and the only thing left will be waiting for the fat lady to sing. I’m both happy and amused at the republicans dance with Death, I just can’t figure it out. It’s like they’re convinced the apocalypse is right around the corner and they want to prepare for it by burning down their house.

Its a long time to the primary and a lot can happen between now and then. The problem for Ridge is that he probably would have no better chance of making it out of a primary with Toomey as Specter would have. What we have to wait on now is polling of Specter vs other potential rivals like Torcella or Sestak.

And there’s no way Toomey abandons his run at this point unless somebody uncovers photos of him violating goats.
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He will say that they were taken out of context or Photo-shopped and the MSM will dutifully report it as such. If they actually catch him violating said goat, it will just become another in a long line of “non-stories” that never seemed to make it into the discussion.
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As for Sestak “primarying” his a$$, I’m all for that. I’m having a little trouble figuring out exactly WHAT he actually promised in return for his keeping his seniority.
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Karen, I know you admire Reid, but he really needs to step up his negotiation skills . . . they stink!

afguy
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Democrats in the Senate have already said that Harry Reid doesn’t have the power to promise Specter seniority. In fact it won’t get voted on until after the midterms. So whatever promise Reid made it doesn’t seem all that enforceable.

SG: This is the same Democratic caucus that voted to give Lieberman a chairmanship after he campaigned for McCain. What are the chances they will not live up to a deal their leader made to get another Democrat over to their side of the aisle?

“And there’s no way Toomey abandons his run at this point unless somebody uncovers photos of him violating goats.”
Toomey: I think it’s just wrong that my political adversaries would stoop to using my deep love for animals that God Himself created to try to distract the voters. Besides, have you seen my wife?

K Tizzle
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I think it all depends on how Specter votes. You have to remember that this is also the Senate caucus that will probably include Al Franken at that point. I can’t wait for him to get seated.

I think the Club for Growth can be counted on to shrink the GOP’s chances for a win in Pennsylvania. The Blue Dog Democrats will blunt the claim that the Democratic party members in Congress ill repeat the rubber stamp behavior demonstrated by the Republicans during GW Bush’s administration.
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The PA GOP will end up being represented by Limbaugh listeners who consider Joe the Plumber an intellect. The GOP simply has no message that will appeal to beleaguered working class Pennsylvanians.
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Remember, these Pennsylvanians, who were presented as the woman who wondered why Obama did not wear a flag pin in his lapel, were never supposed to vote for Barack Obama. The mood of the country has changed.

afguy: With better than 80% job approval among Democrats, significantly higher than Casey’s, I’d also say the chances of any other Democrat having a serious shot in a primary is pretty low. Democrats in Pa appear to LIKE Specter. A lot.

Toomey represents the old guard of the Republican Party. Those who want fiscal responsibility and a smaller government. As long as he maintains that platform he wins. It is that simple.
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Specter cannot be trusted and deserves to be with his now cozy democrat scum buddies.

So whatever promise Reid made it doesn’t seem all that enforceable.
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Hope so, sgwhite.
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It looks like the membership will have to force some discipline onto Sens. Reid and Specter by telling them that it doesn’t matter what he now calls himself – he’s going to have to earn the perqs by voting and supporting the positions. If he keeps doing and saying what he has been doing recently, then support Sestak or another good candidate and let him sink or swim on his own.
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There’s just a Lieberman feel to all of this (Spector is for Spector, first and foremost, as was Joe L.). Both are questionable in the “principles” department, as far as I am concerned.
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If you are going to “use” Arlen, just make sure who is using who.

Democrats in Pa appear to LIKE Specter. A lot.
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Karen,
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Have any surveys been done with the Dem voters AFTER the latest series of statements by Arlen? Are they “down” with his non-support for “card check”?
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Not saying that any one thing he has said or done will be a “game changer”, but he has been pretty “non-supportive” of the president (and a few of his appointments) lately. Pretty much his “R” voting position is being continued.

afguy:

Democrats in much of Pa are very conservative. And, yes, they are “down” with his opposition to EFCA. See question #19 on the poll: 61% of Dems said it made no difference; 13% said it made them MORE likely to vote for him.

Thanks for the replies, Karen. They’re appreciated.

And, for the record, my views on unions are decidedly mixed, having worked around the UAW as a contract (non-union) employee when the Saturn plant was being built in Spring Hill, TN.
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I see both sides of unionization and, presently, lean more toward the “a pox on both of their houses” position because of first-hand experience.

First this is in effect Arlen Specter’s inauguration. He will never have polling numbers this high again with Dems unless he does some heavy lifting and probably not even then. Second our President and our Secretary of State both campaigned for Joe Lieberman in a Dem primary two years ago and he still got beat by relative unknown Ned Lamont. Third 23% of Dems said it made it less likely they would vote for Specter if he opposes EFCA. Thats 9 pts higher than those who said it would make them more likely to vote for him. Fourth if Ridge runs and he is seen as being neck and neck with Specter its likely Dem leadership might want a real Dem running against Ridge.
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I still say we need to see polling of Specter vs likely primary candidates before we can make any kind of informed assessment other than the fact that Toomey isn’t likely to beat Specter in a general.

SG: But what do you make of his stratospheric job approval and personal favorability numbers? This is a guy who these voters have known for a very long time, so I don’t think this is some kind of blip. They like him.

Great comment from a reader of TPM: “Arlen Specter thinks he’s a middle of the road moderate because he says one thing and then votes the opposite and he believes that somehow balances things out.”
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I’ve spent next to no time in Pennsylvania, but I don’t understand the Democratic support there for Specter. Here is a guy who has spent the past 29 years voting against the things that the core constituency’s of the Democratic Party support. Then, he decides one day last week to switch teams and walks into an 81% approval rating?!

……..Toomey represents the old guard of the Republican Party. Those who want fiscal responsibility and a smaller government. As long as he maintains that platform he wins. It is that simple.
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Toomey may win the GOP Primary. Toomey will lose in a General election. It is that simple.
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The Club for Growth helped defeat the following Republicans, Wayne Gilchrist (R-MD), Heather Wilson (R-NM), John Swarz (R-MI), and Lincoln Chafee (R-RI). Only 21% of voters self-identify as Republicans. 200K Republicans shifted to the Democratic Party in the Presidential election.

Wonder how his positions will look now with the Dem crowd in PA with jobs iffy and/or leaving?
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Voting as he did with the economy humming and relatively low unemployment was one thing . . . wonder how economic reality will affect their outlook toward him?

Post No. 25 Should read …..200K Republicans in Pennsylvania shifted to the Democratic Party in the Presidential election.

KT, I posted part of this the other day. It is from an article in the Phila Inq in August, 2007. I think Arlen’s efforts on retail politics partly explain his popularity.
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Specter uses congressional recesses to visit all 67 counties in Pennsylvania – his version of a permanent campaign. Most politicians try to mingle with voters, but few are as methodical and intense about it.
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The tradition dates to mid-1980, when Specter trailed the Democratic candidate for Senate, former Pittsburgh Mayor Pete Flaherty, by 19 percentage points. Specter promised to go to every county, and the press loved the gimmick. He succeeded by the end of August.
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“That’s the way I caught him,” Specter said.
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The forums, a mixture of relentlessness and intimacy, have helped the moderate Republican sink deep political roots in all corners of the state, one reason he has withstood challenges from both the left (1992) and the right (2004).
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At midafternoon Wednesday, Specter’s maroon Lincoln Town Car crested Rural Route 78 in the center of Mehoopany, population 993, a township dotted with dairy farms and a Procter & Gamble paper plant. It is about 140 miles northwest of Philadelphia.
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Additionally, if you don’t listen carefully or pay attention to how he actually votes, you’ll think he supports your position. He had a couple of position statements on his web page that prompted me to call his office and said I was grateful for his stand against renewing FISA, but ooops when the vote came, he voted the other way. If I hadn’t followed that, I would have assumed he supported my position.

K Tizzle
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Its REAL simple, Specter just changed parties. Thats why I said its his inauguration right now. Lets go back to the March numbers on him from the same polling firm
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http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1327.xml?ReleaseID=1280
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At that point he had a 60% favorable rating by Dems and 71% approval probably because he voted for the stimulus bill. Also notice that just a couple months ago Dems would have by in large voted for a Democratic opponent in a general. Nothing major has happened since then to up his ratings with Dems so you have to go with common sense. Everybody is happy right now because he switched over. But if that doesn’t translate into votes those sentiments can and will change.

Can’t help wondering: Club for GROWTH??? What have actually done other than kaiboshing moderate Republicans? Are they serious players in Penn.?

SG: See Ivy_B’s post. People there know him and they LIKE him. (His favorables actually dropped after he voted for the stimulus bill; they were 55% or above last year.) In 2004, when John Kerry carried the state, Specter won re-election with an 11-point margin. Sometimes, I think you guys try to see everything through a partisan lens. Specter has a relationship with Pennsylvania voters that goes back decades, and that will not necessarily rise and fall on his support for Obama. And the Democrats there do not necessarily fit the national profile. The Democratic electorate in Pa voted for Hillary Clinton–who ran as the more conservative candidate–by a 10-point margin.

KT: You hit the nail on the head when you said that Pennsylvanian democrats don’t fit the national profile. Most states don’t. I’ve lived in the tri-state area for over 40 years and Ohio, W Va, and Pennsylvanian democrats are all different animals. Hillary beat Obama in Pa by 10 points and Obama beat McCain by a similar margin. Hillary beat Obama big here in Ohio and Obama narrowly won Ohio. Ohio’s voters tend to be more conservative than Pa’s. Pa has been trending blue for years and Ohio is heading that way too. Specter is well liked in western Pa because they like the mix of his politics. My guess is that Pa voters will look at his switch as nothing more than him trying to stay in office. Just politics. It won’t affect how he represents them and that’s the most important thing.

rustyreturns Says:
Monday, May 4, 2009 at 2:01 pm
Toomey represents the old guard of the Republican Party. Those who want fiscal responsibility and a smaller government. As long as he maintains that platform he wins. It is that simple.
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Specter cannot be trusted and deserves to be with his now cozy democrat scum buddies.

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Toomey is Ricky Santorum without that man-dog thing going on. We know how Ricky did last time. can you even find PA on a map?…of PA?

I’m so glad that this kid got some protection. Unfortunately, there are so many kids out there in developing nations that will not get social workers to help them out. The U.S. should be doing way more to address the Millennium Development Goals. The plan to end world hunger has been getting seriously ignored.

$30 billion: Annual shortfall to end world hunger.

$550 billion: U.S. Defense budget.

(source: borgenproject.org.)

K Tizzle
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In a month or so I will reference this conversation. You have stated that basically there is no way anybody can beat Specter in a primary. Thats YOU being absolutist, not anybody else. So if he votes against the agenda and his numbers go down with the Democrats you can be sure it will come up again. And oh by the way, the unions are thinking of backing his challenger in a Democratic primary. I guess you think that won’t make a difference either.
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http://theplumline.whorunsgov.com/labor/labor-leader-threatens-not-to-back-specter/

SG: What I said was:
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The numbers suggest that any other Democrat would likely have an uphill climb against Specter in a primary, even without the support and resources that Barack Obama and Governor Ed Rendell have promised their new fellow Democrat.
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That is NOT the same as saying NO WAY. Any number of things could happen. But at the moment, it looks quite difficult.
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Please don’t twist my words. I used the verb “suggest,” and described it as an “uphill climb.” You are the one who is making absolute statements about MY statements.

That said, if it’s Rich Trumka against Ed Rendell in a political fight in Pa., I’d put my money (not all of it, but some of it) on Rendell.

SG says “You have stated that *basically* there is no way anybody can beat Specter in a primary.”
I would say that’s a fair reading of KT’s (welcome) comments.
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KT says “that is NOT the same as saying NO WAY”. Followed by “You are the one who is making absolute statements about MY statements.”
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Hmm.

K Tizzle
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To refresh your memory, this is what you said in comments
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afguy: With better than 80% job approval among Democrats, significantly higher than Casey’s, I’d also say the chances of any other Democrat having a serious shot in a primary is pretty low. Democrats in Pa appear to LIKE Specter. A lot.

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I stand by my statement.

afguy: With better than 80% job approval among Democrats, significantly higher than Casey’s, I’d also say the chances of any other Democrat having a serious shot in a primary is pretty low. Democrats in Pa appear to LIKE Specter. A lot.
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nonsense. Democrats approve of Specter switching parties, but that’s just about it.

SG Once again, please note the words that I used. I said the chances were low. I did not, ever, say what you assert:
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You have stated that basically there is no way anybody can beat Specter in a primary. Thats YOU being absolutist, not anybody else.
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Please do not put words in my mouth.

oops, forgot the link!
http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1327.xml?ReleaseID=1238

oh, as to Dems affection for Specter, check out this November 2008 poll. Among Democrats, Specter had a 56% approval rating… but in a hypothetical Matthews/Specter race, he would lose to Chris Matthews by 30 points among Democrats.
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In other words, there is a whole lot of room for a real Democrat to win a Democratic primary when Specter would have received the support of only 25% of Democrats in the general election against a Democrat.

SG and pluk: I am doubtful that Matthews would have done well in a real race, but I guess that is something we will never get to see. As for this, we’ll see.

SG and pluk: I am doubtful that Matthews would have done well in a real race…
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the poll i cited shows Specter with a 45-33% lead over matthews among all voters — but that’s not the real issue. Its what Democrats actually think of Specter, and here in pennsylvania he’s always been considered “not bad for a Republican”, but the vast majority of Democrats don’t think “not bad for a Republican” is good enough. For instance, in 2004, when Arlen got only 28% of the Democratic vote against a poorly funded Joe Hoeffel http://us.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/pages/results/states/PA/S/01/epolls.0.html

I don’t understand why the voters of PA like Specter, and he has given no sign that I can see that he’s changed anything but the letter beside his name. Can not understand why this is a boon for Democrats.
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Am interested, KT, in how you see this having played out with Sessions now being ranking member on Judiciary. Did the Republicans simply want to put a bigger thorn in Leahy’s side? Will it actually make any difference to the outcome of issues before Judiciary? I think Leahy and Specter have worked fairly well over the years, but does the majority really need that for anything other than appearances?