Way To Go, Joe.

Biden said of his family’s personal precautions: “That’s me.”
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It’s almost as if he has lost family members to tragedy or something.

KT-One thing that I think is getting very little attention is the fact that there are a whole host of employers that do not offer their employees any sick time. If the employees don’t go to work they don’t get paid and can even get fired. Those people work for contractors employed by airlines, ride the subways to work, work in our malls, clean our offices and are our wait staff. Everyone also knows that daycare centers and classroooms are toxic breeding grounds for all sorts of infections. Several months ago we had one employee here in my own office that took 5 other people because that person came to work with the flu. We just had a child here in Houston die at Texas Children’s so. No reason to panic.

I’m guessing Obama and his aides are missing the secretive nature of the last Veep right about now. I can see it now; “Joe, why can’t you be more like Cheney and disappear?”

http://www.political-buzz.com/

One that amazes me is that this is not really about people going into a panic and losing their lives. The panic is about losing money. Because money rules our world we can’t have serious conversations about closing businesses, schools and the borders until a threat passes.

Maybe we should cut down on the blogging. All of us in here at the same time from all over the country…and world for that matter. At least wash your hands before typing.
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I’m in Texas and the whole Fort Worth School District just shut down for a couple of weeks. Parents don’t know what to do with their kids while they work.
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Sports in the state have been shutdown for almost a month, I think.
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Panic vs. Precaution…thin line sometimes.

As someone living in an economy that relies almost completely on Airline and Cruise Ship passengers, I’d like to extend my extreme gratitude!
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Though I would like to remind everyone that a good working definition of gaffe is ‘inadvertant honesty’

KT:
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Please don’t feed the trolls!

There’s like 50K students out here in Texas, WHO just raised the level again after saying a day ago they were not even going to meet to consider it.

FYI not referring to swampcritters…

NEWS RELEASE FROM THE CATHOLIC DIOCESE OF CORPUS CHRISTI:
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Due to the seriousness of the Swine Flu, which recently took the life of a child here in Texas, let us take the following measures as a precaution until the danger has passed:
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(1) The chalice is not to be shared with the faithful during Mass. Holy Communion is to be given only in the species of the consecrated bread.
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(2) Give Holy Communion in the hand and not on the tongue.
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(3) The faithful should be encouraged not to hold hands during the Our Father and to share the sign of peace without touching hands or kissing.
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(4) Priests, deacons and extraordinary ministers of Holy Communion should be encouraged to practice special hygiene before Mass begins.
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(5) Encourage parishioners not to come to Mass when they are sick.
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(6) If people come forward for a blessing at communion time, the blessing should be given without touching them.
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(7) Care should be taken to make sure that people with celiac or special needs may receive communion in a manner appropriate to their condition.
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Once the emergency of this danger has passed, we will immediately return to our traditional practices.
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http://www.kiiitv.com/news/religion/44022232.html

Bugs me more, from CBS interview with Biden.
“Are you and the president prepared to offer your unconditional support to Senator Specter even if a Democratic candidate comes along who more closely aligns with your agenda?’
Biden-”yes”

“Panic vs. Precaution…thin line sometimes.”
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My wife is in ill health, so to be on the safe side, I set two appointments for this moring. That was two days ago.
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I figured if it wasn’t serious, then we already had reasons to go. If things did get worse (they are), then I could use the opportunity to make sure she was in line for Tamiflu and the vaccine when they distribute it.

“Are you and the president prepared to offer your unconditional support to Senator Specter even if a Democratic candidate comes along who more closely aligns with your agenda?”
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Trick question. There will be no other Democratic candidate coming along. Those thinking of bucking teh machine will find muscle on their doorstep to disabuse them of the notion.

Sorry to read that fifty, best wishes for you and your wife.

You are likely right gunny, I really hate the anti-democratic wing of the Democratic party.

I don’t know, gysgt213, the Dems are a motley crew. We just don’t have a really “pure” ideology.
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I think Specter isn’t that bad a catch after looking at his record. He’s not going to make the far left happy, but Obama’s only somewhat left of center.

PNNTO:
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Sorry for giving the impression that she is sick now, she’s not. Her health right now is just naturally fragile.
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Thanks anyway. She’s good!

The way I see it Spector 79 years old and he has exactly one term left to give. So I think that can be used in some way.

My reading comprehension strikes again! Glad to read your clarification fifty.

53_3, hope today goes well for you and yours.
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I never have a problem with erring on the safe side. I just know some parents who are in a pickle about what to do with their kids. It seems, as Gunny noted above, that one day we shoulnd’t panic and the next day school is shut down for two weeks.
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My girlfriend just returned from a 2 month trip to Africa and thinks she needs to be tested for a parasite. Her sister, who is still in Africa, has contracted it so she’s a little concerned.

He’s not even as bad as our own Blue Dogs. They’re not going to go for EFCA, so that’s a push, we’ve got Liebermann, who is farther left on social issues, but way right on FP.
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Specter is good on Civil Rights, moderate on social issues, but will go a bit left I think.
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He just doesn’t have that good backhand!

somepeoplelikeit:
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Thanks to you too, but she’s good. She is just in “ill health” by definition only. Right now, I’m just doing what Biden is talking about – staying two steps ahead of the curve on it.

gysgt213:
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I think that’s the idea the Dems have in mind. He’s certainly a better catch in my opinion than Liebermann, and if another one decides to cross over to the Dark Side, then maybe we can start the process of ousting him.
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It’s a sign of the times, I think. There’s no one but us left in the middle. Snow said it best when she compared the GOP to ‘Survivors’.

Here is the video of what he actually said
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http://today.msnbc.msn.com/id/26184891/vp/30494440#30494440
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Check out the question
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And check out the qualifier
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“If they had another mode of transportation…”
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This is what you call much ado over nothing. I don’t know how many people are encouraging their family to ride the subway or an airplane right now but if they are I would say they are either stupid or uninformed.

sg:
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We’ve just spent years trying to get people in buses instead of cars, and our Light Rail system is nearing completion. All of which are confined spaces.

DC Recommendations for the swine flu.
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* Stay informed. This website will be updated regularly as information becomes available.
* Influenza is thought to spread mainly person-to-person through coughing or sneezing of infected people.
* Take everyday actions to stay healthy.
o Cover your nose and mouth with a tissue when you cough or sneeze. Throw the tissue in the trash after you use it.
o Wash your hands often with soap and water, especially after you cough or sneeze. Alcohol-based hands cleaners are also effective.
o Avoid touching your eyes, nose or mouth. Germs spread that way.
o Stay home if you get sick. CDC recommends that you stay home from work or school and limit contact with others to keep from infecting them.

* Follow public health advice regarding school closures, avoiding crowds and other social distancing measures.
* Develop a family emergency plan as a precaution. This should include storing a supply of food, medicines, facemasks, alcohol-based hand rubs and other essential supplies.
* Call 1-800-CDC-INFO for more information.
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During large outbreaks avoiding large crowds is always advised. Children. pregnant women, elderly and those with weakened immune systems are the highest risk.
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The Mexican experience with the H1N1 virus is much different than what has been seen in the US despite the virus strain being identical. In Mexico, there have been cases of rapidly progressive pneumonia requiring ventilator support. Several cases in Mexico have progressed to rapid lung failure (the medical term is adult respiratory distress syndrome).
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Most of the cases in the US have not required hospitalization. The one death is in a child from Mexico brought to Texas for treatment. Closing the border is ineffective.
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http://www.cdc.gov/swineflu/
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From the NYT:
Closing borders is dangerous because many goods needed in a pandemic are made abroad, said Dr. Michael T. Osterholm, director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota, including most masks, gowns and gloves, electrical circuits for ventilators and communications gear, and pharmaceutical drugs and the raw materials to make them. (For example, most suppliers of shikimic acid, the base ingredient in the antiviral drug Tamiflu, are in China.)
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“You cut those off and you cripple the health care system,” he said. “Our global just-in-time economy means we are dependent on others.” Much of our food is from overseas. “A Kellogg’s Nutri-Grain bar has ingredients from nine countries in it,” he noted.
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http://www.nytimes.com/2009/04/30/health/30contain.html?_r=1
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For now surveillance and treating those effected are the best attack plan.

53_3
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And we are also on the verge of a pandemic.

Just wondering which causes a worse panic. Joe’s comments or the Beck and Hannity’s of tv and radio airwaves shouting socialist, giving out red scares, banana republic and Obama is going to take your guns and business away on a daily friggin basis? Or maybe even Lou Dobbs screaming about illegal aliens about to over run us.

sg: Exactamundo. FYI, breaking news:
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CNN and MSNBC say jobless claims down 14,000 from 631,000 last month.
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Way to go, Bammer!

rmrd-A report on NPR this morning saying that most people are getting over this without medication let alone hospitalization.

gygst213:
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I was over at Fox yesterday to see what the commenters were like, and I noted that most of them are in a fear, fear, fear mode. But one thing I also noticed:
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A lot of more middle of the road people and some lefties were making very un-conservative comments like on firefighter [sic]:
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“It’s not in the Constitution, but I think every American should have access to health care.”
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There was actually a lot of stuff like that on their ‘First 100 Days: Sound Off!’ BB.

Congratulations to Joe. With the outbreak spreading (it’s here in Ohio too), family comes first. Health AND money are the two biggies. I just finished paying off thousands on medical bill co-pays and deductibles and have no wish for anymore. Our house is a hangout for my son and his friends and I just put a hold on that last night.

By the way, this is what President Obama said last night.
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http://www.cnn.com/2009/POLITICS/04/29/obama.transcript/index.html
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The key now I think is to make sure that we’re maintaining great vigilance, that everybody responds appropriately when cases do come up, and individual families start taking very sensible precautions that — can make a huge difference.
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So wash your hands when you shake hands. Cover your mouth when you cough. I know it sounds trivial, but it makes a huge difference. If you are sick, stay home. If your child is sick, keep them out of school.
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To — if you are feeling certain flu symptoms, don’t get on an airplane, don’t get on a — any system of public transportation where you’re confined and you could potentially spread the virus.

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President Obama warns about the threat of the virus being spread on public transportation and nobody says a peep yet Biden’s quote is now being promoted as a gaffe. I swear man this meme is getting old as hell.

An update. I was wrong on the exact numbers, but heres the horse at the source:
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/30496064/
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I noticed that Mexico seems to be the only one with an extremely high death rate. It seems to me that the people there hosted the 1st and 2nd generation of the newly minted flu.
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Maybe it’s becoming less harmful?

sg:
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They have to have something to complain about. The GOP is imploding and they just don’t have anything else to offer.

I noticed that Mexico seems to be the only one with an extremely high death rate.
Perhaps because Mexico’s medical infrastructure, especially where these cases originated, isn’t as strong as ours.
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Tucked away in this small mountain village, off a dusty road flanked by pig farms, is where the earliest case of swine flu — a virus spreading globally — was confirmed
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http://www.cnn.com/2009/HEALTH/04/28/swine.flu/?iref=mpstoryview

FYI on swine flu mapping:
http://healthmap.org/swineflu
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I’ve noted that the others, Google, MSNBC, CDC, are very slow to update, and some show status of two days ago.
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These people update hourly, and have numbers that are quite a bit at variance with what the last news cycle had (uncheck ‘influenza’ and ‘respiratory illness’ first). They do post their sources, but keep in mind this might not be accurate.

53_3: Thanks for the link.

somepeoplelikeit:
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I can think of two other reasons why this might happen:
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1. Our health system can detect milder cases that might be ‘under the radar’ in Mexico. Also in this mix: The average Mexican might not see your average flu case as a reason to go to the doctor. That’s not true here, where people sometimes go at the slightest sniffle.
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2. Our cases havn’t matured yet, resistance varies, so there will always be some who get over it quickly.
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FYI other breaking: Chrysler’s going bankrupt!

KT – this is what I mean when I talk about you and your brethren being irresponsible.
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The lead is the white house is concerned that Biden’s comments could cause panic. However, if you see the exchange in its entirety, including the set up from Matt Lauer, you realize that this is not the case at all. The white house should have said that they were concerned that an immature media would frame the conversation in a way that would cause the greatest number of Americans to panic.
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So by all means panic the nation, make it as hard to govern as possible, do as much damage as you possibly can, because you have to get ratings right? And KT what do you suggest I do this time, close the web page?

Given that the disease can be communicated before symptoms are apparent I think Joe makes a lot of sense – particularly with the qualifier sgw noted. We’ll know soon enough how big a deal this is likely to be, and letting the possibilities factor into transportation choices is just rational behavior. The Veep isn’t responsible for maximizing the income of air carriers at the expense of the public’s health.

53_3, the CDC awaits definitive laboratory confirmation before posting an update. Current CDC info is as of 04/29/2009 at 11:00 A.M.

rmrd:
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That explains it. Just went to site, thanks!

FO:
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I know also that people who have no other transportation options and work for an employer who doesn’t pay sick leave will get on the bus anyway.
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And a bus is really nothing but a safe haven and a captive audience for airborne pathogens when it comes to the virus itself.

I have almost a year of sick leave built up. I might be using some of it.

noticed that Mexico seems to be the only one with an extremely high death rate.
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There are many potential reasons but I think the most likely is severe underreporting of non-serious cases.

I hope not sacredh!
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I have about 470 hours myself. I hope I don’t have to use it.

PD:
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I think that’s true too. After all, in a country with limited health resources, would they waste expensive lab efforts on a peasant with a sniffle in the pre-outbreak mindset?
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I think not.

What is ironic about this faux gaffe is that MSNBC which is held up as the refuge of lefty libruls has cut the Biden answer to make it seem like he was talking to the American people and not responding to a question about what he would tell his family or that he included the caveat of if you have other means of transportation. I mean it WAS the Today Show he was on which aired on NBC. Hell if you go to the MSNBC site thats how you get to the Today Show site where I got the full video to begin with. Now they are asking reps of the CDC if they agree with Biden like he was announcing a plan for the nation or something. I guess we will have to put with this sh*t for the rest off the day.

Since it looks like Mexico is ground zero, it’s possible that most people thought it was just an ordinary case of the flu and by the time they realized it was serious, fatalities were already occurring. Look at how fast it’s spreading here in the states and our healthcare system is lightyears ahead of theirs. I wonder what the map is going to look like in a week?

53_3: Last night at work I put out anti-bacterial wipes and posted reminders for people to wipe down the radios and phones after use. I finished up 7 midnights this morning and have the next 10 days off. I have the feeling that things are going to look quite different by the time I go back. I may be over-reacting, but I told my family not to buy any takeout fast food either. I don’t want to eat anything that someone else has touched. The food itself could have been sneezed on (accidentaly) or else the wrapper could be contaminated.

sacredh: I certainly hope you’re over-reacting, but I would frame your actions as being pro-active and thus very sound.
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I believe it’s time for me and Mrs. Tuck to lay in the “iron rations” and be prepared to hunker down if necessary. This is the day (last half-hour, in fact) of my “temp” job, so we can stay out of circulation for a while if need be.

I don’t know how many people are encouraging their family to ride the subway or an airplane right now but if they are I would say they are either stupid or uninformed.
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SG, relax. The evidence does not suggest the situation is that severe outside of Mexico.
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I keep seeing these extremes, with some people already panicking and others saying that this is all overblown since only 1 person has died in America and 36,000 die every year from the flu. Both extremes are disregarding the evidence, or more precisely they’re disregarding the concept of graduated risk levels. It’s scary how few of us are in that middle ground.

I meant to say “last day.” Even preview didn’t catch that one.

Just a heads up — I just coughed on my laptop.
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The regular seasonal flu is far more destructive than most people realize (a good friend died of it two years ago, without being terribly ill until the last few hours). How vulnerable you feel probably depends on your individual situation. I am certainly more concerned about my son, who lives in a dorm and has a chronic illness, than about myself, working at home and achy but fit. If he were planning to travel by plane in the next couple of weeks, I’d worry. But that’s just me!

FT: My wife had a near fatal illness this past year and still isn’t 100%. I’m not taking any chances. I did encourage my MIL to attend church services and kiss all her friends to show them how much she loves them. If something terrible does befall my beloved MIL and I get blamed, I figure a new Kitchen Aid mixer would get me out of the doghouse. She loves to cook.

Keep convincing yourself that this isn’t an asinine story KT.
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All in all not someone else’s best day either.

Solid thinking, sacredh!

Jo-notmymomma, I’ve got Purell by my keyboard, thanks for the heads up!

NBC and MSNBC are being totally irresponsible with this type of crap. If people are panicked, it will be at the doorstep of MSM.
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Can media please shed light on medical issues like this rather than turn up the heat?
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In an area with a large number of cases, sporting events will be canceled, schools will be closed, and trips to the mall decreased. Travel to areas with a high number of cases will be discouraged.
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If the public is addressed like responsible adults, MSM deconstructs the statement into a childish “gotcha”. Family practitioners, pediatricians, and internists will have the phones ringing off the hook due to NBC/MSNBC.
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There is concern, but as of right now the US cases have been mild. No one can predict the future, but for now, just take some basic precautions. There have been computer simulations run on worst case scenario for the behavior of this virus, and the outlook is not bleak.
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Here are some more scary numbers the media can use. There are 36,000 annual deaths from complications of influenza. A computer simulation based on worse case scenario (nothing being done, no hospitalizations, vaccine, or antiviral drug therapy) done at Northwestern, suggests 1,000 deaths from the swine flu nation-wide. Again, that is without any action by physicians, hospitals, the public, or public health officials.
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The 36K deaths are hypothetical because not every flu case is documented by nasal swab or blood work. The computer simulation is a guess based on hypothetical numbers thrown into the computer.
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So here we are with mild cases in most instances in the US. Use common sense. Use extra precaution with high risk individuals.That is the message MSM needs to be emphasizing.

It’s so strange, last time I posted here it was about the swine flu and jcapan suggested I was being a little paranoid (he didn’t use that word, but it was implied). Now a couple of days later I come back and people are stocking up on food.
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Keep convincing yourself that this isn’t an asinine story KT.
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P-NNTO, oh come on. The VP just contradicted the official American medical advice, which mentions nothing about healthy people avoiding airplanes and subways. That is a story.
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And there is no such thing as “personal” advice from the VP. Everything he says (about a likely flu pandemic; this isn’t a trivial subject) has the weight of an official statement.

If the MIL sneezes, would it be wrong to use a flamethrower on her? Would that kill the virus?

rose83
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I guess you think the WHO raised the threat level to 5 just for sh*ts and giggles huh? I didn’t say anything about mortality rate, I am talking about TRANSMISSION rate. Now you can lay back and think its not serious because we haven’t had any American deaths but somehow I don’t think you would care about who has died or who hasn’t if you find out one of your family members has swine flu.

For those counting at home we are now up to 12 states with confirmed swine flu cases.

“And there is no such thing as “personal” advice from the VP”
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Rose, I guess this part through me “Biden said of his family’s personal precautions”.
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Having said that, I’m sure Biden has learned his lesson.

“And there is no such thing as “personal” advice from the VP”
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Rose, I guess this part threw me “Biden said of his family’s personal precautions”.
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Having said that, I’m sure Biden has learned his lesson.

.Here are some more scary numbers the media can use. There are 36,000 annual deaths from complications of influenza. A computer simulation based on worse case scenario (nothing being done, no hospitalizations, vaccine, or antiviral drug therapy) done at Northwestern, suggests 1,000 deaths from the swine flu nation-wide. Again, that is without any action by physicians, hospitals, the public, or public health officials.
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rmrd, Is there a timeframe for that simulation? I assume it’s based on a low prevalence; we have no reason to be confident that this is milder than regular influenza.
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So here we are with mild cases in most instances in the US. Use common sense. Use extra precaution with high risk individuals.That is the message MSM needs to be emphasizing.
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All true, but I just want to add that it’s not perfectly clear who high risk individuals are. The Mexican deaths have included many healthy adults, like the 1918 pandemic, while most of the American hospitalizations (as of yesterday, 5 out of 91 confirmed cases; not a horrible or great figure) have involved traditional patients who are traditionally at high risk in a flu outbreak.

Sorry all tried to stop my homonym error.

Deja Vu.

Rose83, rmrd, thank you. The problems caused by panic being whipped up is sure to be worse than the actual disease itself.
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sgwhiteinfla–that’s exactly the kind of language used to drum up support for the Iraq invasion; ‘You wouldn’t be saying that if it was one of YOUR relatives in the WTC!’
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Take a minute to relax and think things through. You, and everyone in your family, is a thousand times more likely to die in a car accident. Are you going to go and set fire to your car? Given the fact that car fatalities are so much more common than public transportation fatalities, the numbers say that you’re probably only increasing your risk of unnatural death by avoiding public transportation.
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What is needed right now is for people to take a few common sense precautions, like washing your hands, covering your mouth, and otherwise doing the things you were taught to do in kindergarten. Lifestyle changes, like what transportation to use, whether to eat out, go to work, go to school, etc, is gross overreaction at this point, and probably a net-negative for society.
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God I hate these media-orcestrated panic attacks. They come along every year or two like clockwork. Every year it’s the same sh!t in a different pile, everyone gets all worked up, and then forgets about it in two weeks. Yet they willingly go bananas again next year when the next big thing strikes terror into our hearts.

sacredh:
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“If the MIL sneezes, would it be wrong to use a flamethrower on her? Would that kill the virus?”
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Only if you are a wingnut.
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I had a family meeting too yesterday and bought four bottles of hand sanitizer for around the house. We’re not religious hand-washers, so I think this is a good move as all you need is just a teensy squirt and you’re good to go.
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sg:
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I’ve been over at FOX. I’m not sure what happened, but I’ve found, since I went there, I no longer have the ability to count that high.

Statement by WHO Director-General, Dr Margaret Chan
29 April 2009
Swine influenza
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Ladies and gentlemen,
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Based on assessment of all available information, and following several expert consultations, I have decided to raise the current level of influenza pandemic alert from phase 4 to phase 5.
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Influenza pandemics must be taken seriously precisely because of their capacity to spread rapidly to every country in the world..
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On the positive side, the world is better prepared for an influenza pandemic than at any time in history.
.
Preparedness measures undertaken because of the threat from H5N1 avian influenza were an investment, and we are now benefiting from this investment.
.
For the first time in history, we can track the evolution of a pandemic in real-time.
.
I thank countries who are making the results of their investigations publicly available. This helps us understand the disease.
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I am impressed by the work being done by affected countries as they deal with the current outbreaks.
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I also want to thank the governments of the USA and Canada for their support to WHO, and to Mexico.
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Let me remind you. New diseases are, by definition, poorly understood. Influenza viruses are notorious for their rapid mutation and unpredictable behavior.
.
WHO and health authorities in affected countries will not have all the answers immediately, but we will get them.
.
WHO will be tracking the pandemic at the epidemiological, clinical, and virological levels.
.
The results of these ongoing assessments will be issued as public health advice, and made publicly available.
.
All countries should immediately activate their pandemic preparedness plans. Countries should remain on high alert for unusual outbreaks of influenza-like illness and severe pneumonia.
.
At this stage, effective and essential measures include heightened surveillance, early detection and treatment of cases, and infection control in all health facilities.
.
This change to a higher phase of alert is a signal to governments, to ministries of health and other ministries, to the pharmaceutical industry and the business community that certain actions should now be undertaken with increased urgency, and at an accelerated pace.
.
I have reached out to donor countries, to UNITAID, to the GAVI Alliance, the World Bank and others to mobilize resources.
.
I have reached out to companies manufacturing antiviral drugs to assess capacity and all options for ramping up production.
.
I have also reached out to influenza vaccine manufacturers that can contribute to the production of a pandemic vaccine.
.
The biggest question, right now, is this: how severe will the pandemic be, especially now at the start?
.
It is possible that the full clinical spectrum of this disease goes from mild illness to severe disease. We need to continue to monitor the evolution of the situation to get the specific information and data we need to answer this question.
.
From past experience, we also know that influenza may cause mild disease in affluent countries, but more severe disease, with higher mortality, in developing countries.
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No matter what the situation is, the international community should treat this as a window of opportunity to ramp up preparedness and response.
.
Above all, this is an opportunity for global solidarity as we look for responses and solutions that benefit all countries, all of humanity. After all, it really is all of humanity that is under threat during a pandemic.
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As I have said, we do not have all the answers right now, but we will get them.
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Thank you.

SG, read my other posts. I’m talking about middle ground here…
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BTW, I may have more information later today. I have been hacking into a media conference call with a public health agency – not in America – for the past couple of days about the swine flu. Also “hacking” isn’t the best word; I just stumbled on a website that had the call and participation info. Anyway, it’s been interesting to see the gap between media coverage and what actual public health officials are saying.
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Rose, I guess this part threw me “Biden said of his family’s personal precautions”.
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P-NNTO, my point of course was that it’s not possible for Biden talk about “personal” precautions against the swine flu on a network TV show.

[...] like the Vice President of the country causing more panic about a yet-to-occur pandemic.  A Pandemic Alert Level 5 yes; a need to close schools and major [...]

Friar Tuck:
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Have you checked the gun emplacements yet? I’d put those ammo boxes on top of those milk cartons. Don’t want ‘em wet, you know.
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Seriously, those sandbags on the SE corner are not high enough.
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Sorry to hear about the end of the temp job. Hope you have better luck ASAP!

rose83
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Believe it or not everything doesn’t equate to the run up to the Iraq war. Now maybe you don’t think its a big deal. Good for you. I have two kids to worry about and its a big deal to me. I don’t give a damn if its fatal or not. Its pretty evident at this point that the transmission rates for this disease are high. It makes all the sense in the world to me to error on the side of caution. And the reality is the only reason why more restrictive guidelines on travel haven’t been instituted yet is because of the state of the economy. Give it another week and see if they don’t come out with advisories against taking public transportation. It is what it is.

rose:
.
You can find the maps at:
http://rocs.northwestern.edu/projects/swine_flu/
.
The projection estimates 1700 cases at 4 weeks.
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There is also a link to another computer model done using a different technique at Indiana University. Both models tend to agree on the number of cases.

Interesting stuff for modelling and other research items:
http://www.pandemicflu.gov/research/index.html#prediction

Honestly I’d be mildly surprised if this is still the top story in, say, another 2 weeks. That’s usually about the absolute most the MSM can run the same story without much changing before the public gets bored. I see this virus going the same way as SARS, the Bird Flu, West Nile Virus, Ebola, and whatever came before that, on the endless list of new superbugs threatening to wipe out humanity before fizzling out after causing a few dozen or even hundred fatalities (at most)–while other things that have been around for decades, centuries, or time immemorial continue to kill us off at far more alarming rates but get largely ignored because we are used to them and have learned to live with the fact that sooner or later we all die.

President Obama warns about the threat of the virus being spread on public transportation and nobody says a peep yet Biden’s quote is now being promoted as a gaffe. I swear man this meme is getting old as hell.
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@sg: I think it’s all in how it’s said. Biden doesn’t say stupid, reckless things; he says reasonable things poorly phrased, which then can sound stupid and reckless when taken out of context. Many of his statements lack that greasy sheen that most politicians have perfected.

Believe it or not everything doesn’t equate to the run up to the Iraq war. Now maybe you don’t think its a big deal. Good for you. I have two kids to worry about and its a big deal to me. I don’t give a damn if its fatal or not. Its pretty evident at this point that the transmission rates for this disease are high. It makes all the sense in the world to me to error on the side of caution. And the reality is the only reason why more restrictive guidelines on travel haven’t been instituted yet is because of the state of the economy. Give it another week and see if they don’t come out with advisories against taking public transportation. It is what it is.
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SG, you’ve confused my post with nhautamaki’s. I can be accused of many things but not taking the swine flu seriously enough is not one of them! Obviously the transmission rates do appear to be fairly high. Likewise erring on the side of caution makes sense; we cannot rule out that this will have a mortality rate of say 0.5%, which is actually very serious. A WHO pandemic level of 5 is not something to disregard.
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But panic is also something we have to guard against. You have no evidence for this assertion: And the reality is the only reason why more restrictive guidelines on travel haven’t been instituted yet is because of the state of the economy. Give it another week and see if they don’t come out with advisories against taking public transportation.
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You are seeing this as a binary issue, where the only two choices are “avoid public transportation” and “the WHO is paranoid.” That’s not true. Reality is between these two extremes.

I just want to thank the commenters covering this issue.
Lots of information and it is almost cliché now but it’s striking how the amount of information in the comments exceeds the information in the posts.

Sorry to panic you, but Joe’s right. For a level five pandemic alert status, Joe’s recommendations reflect WHO’s own recommendations.

rmrd, thanks for those links.
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I’ll pass on the Guardian live blog link, which is the best collection of information I’ve seen: http://www.guardian.co.uk/news/blog/2009/apr/30/swine-flu
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They’re doing a new one each day.
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nhautamaki, I think you could be very wrong about the severity of this. It is quite transmissible, and we do not know enough to be confident that it has a low mortality and severity level.

rmrd:
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Took a look and I’m thinking this:
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1. Because the numbers are based on only labratory verified cases, the model might run low. As this progresses, more and more cases will come from real time diagnosis by doctors (basic assumption: the patient has swine flu), especially as it isn’t flu season. I don’t think, as this thing progresses, it will be possible for everyone to get a labratory verified diagnosis.
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2. I wonder if they can’t use statistics similar to what the Census bureau used to use to include non respone to correct for this, and other causes for underreporting.
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3. The map I linked to is much softer, rigor-wise, and indicates 514 cases already for H1N1. I’m thinking this is probably closer to reality, but I have to admit, I can’t swear by it and must acknowledge that it has it’s drawbacks.

I’m posting it again, because after looking at the participants, MIT, Harvard, CHIP, and childrenshospital.org, it may be more rigorous than I thought.
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I don’t think these people would publish a “panic map”.
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http://healthmap.org/swineflu

rmrd, it’s unlikely NYC had less than 50 cases as of yesterday. NYC is pushing to gain the authority to deem cases “probable” or even “confirmed.” Currently only the CDC can confirm a case, and things are lagging behind real time.
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The “many hundreds” students with swine flu symptoms the NYC health commissioner mentioned on Tuesday are unlikely to all have swine flu, but it’s also unlikely none of them have it.
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Does anyone know where they talk about the level of contagiousness they’re assuming?

Rose83:
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Did you take a look at the link at 10:54?
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I think the 1700 cases from that model might be low, becasue of the rigorousness applied to data being used as the start point.
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Also, since it’s not really flu season, it might be that many do have it. The timing is pretty suspect, but I don’t know the particulars.
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I’m just feeling my way around and throwing out ideas.

rose83
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This is from Tom in the Swamp’s link to the WHO site
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Societal level measures
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 Implement social distancing measures as indicated
in national plans, such as class suspensions and
adjusting working patterns.

 Encourage reduction in travel and crowding of the
mass transport system. 63

 Assess and determine if cancellation, restriction, or
modification of mass gatherings is indicated.64

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Now the administration has come out and said that part of the reason they won’t try to shut down the border or put in travel restrictions is because of commerce considerations. Like I said before, it comes down to the economy. Unless you have an alternate credible reason why we aren’t following the WHO recommendations for levels 5/6

53_3:
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The CDC count is 109 cases as of 10:30 AM today.
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There could be a lag between newspaper reports of presumed cases cited on the map at healthmap.org and verification by lab data required by the CDC.

53_3, I suspect you’re right. I can’t see how a moderately contagious virus that people have no immunity to could only reach 1700 people in 4 weeks without any containment measures. It just seems implausible. Maybe I’m missing something.
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The public health officials I’ve been listening to on the media conference calls are assuming very low contagion levels, although that seems to directly contradict both the CDC and WHO. (And I have more confidence in the CDC and WHO.) The NYC outbreaks suggest fairly high contagion levels are a feature of the virus outside Mexico. Perhaps the Northwestern model is making a similar assumption that only people who live with swine flu patients are at risk.

We have six cases hear in Seattle. They are suspected cases, but they don’t show up in the CDC data, which really is too conservative I’m thinking.
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They are included in the map I’ve provided.
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My line of thinking right now is that most likely, the doctors that diagnose these cases aren’t wrong, for the most part.
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If that is the case, then the model rmrd posted links to is likely to run very, very low.

This is what happens when we talk without context. Clearly Matt Lauer, despite his qualifier promising that this wasn’t a gotcha question, asked the vice president a question designed to do exactly that. In fact, everyone should recognize it because it was a variation on the Dukakis what if it was your wife that got raped question?
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There was no winning answer, if Biden would have repeated the government talking points, he would have been derided for not being real and keeping it in a personal context given his own tragic background, his answer is obviously appropriate, but the moment we repeat the exchange without hearing the set-up we conclude that he’s speaking out of turn.
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The funny thing is that Biden knew what was happening which is why he laughed in response to Lauer’s qualifier. He should have chosen not to trust the integrity of a media personality, because they don’t have any and not answer the question.
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Now Rose, sometimes your response suggests that you’ve misunderstood what the other person has actually said, or at least not the context in which they said it. SG’s response to what would you do if it was your family makes sense to me. That’s not the same thing as saying what the vice president should have said as vice president, especially when he is specifically asked to respond personally not as VP.
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The fact is anyone watching the events unfold and the alerts increase should be considering what they can do in their own lives to reduce the chances of transmission. Long before the president said wash your hands, I hung a hand sanitizer on my grandchild’s belt for when she’s out of my sight. Yes, I cancelled her soccer practice and karate class this week and since I work from home and have my grocery delivered, I think we’re good. Now, I don’t think I’m a paranoid crazy panicking at the drop of a hat, I’m taking a common sense approach to avoid transmission, because there is just not enough info to guarantee that this thing will continue to be mild–why take the chance with the people who matter most.
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We should be saving our most severe remarks to the media who have both distorted and blown up this story for their personal entertainment. They’ve decided that a Democrat must play the court jester. Despite all of the obviously foolish people with GOP slapped on their forehead, the media has decided that the only person they ant to make look foolish is Biden. I would say have at it except for the last time we allowed you to manipulate reputations like this we ended up with George W. Bush for a president.

SG, that’s for the affected communities. They’re not suggesting Tokyo shut down it’s subway system. Look, no one’s suggesting we should travel on Mexico City subways.
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Now the administration has come out and said that part of the reason they won’t try to shut down the border or put in travel restrictions is because of commerce considerations. Like I said before, it comes down to the economy.
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Has the administration said that? I’ve heard public health – not economic – experts say that because the economy is so integrated now and even basic goods are manufactured from raw materials around the world shutting down borders is dangerous. Also pointless because the virus is already out.
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Unless you have an alternate credible reason why we aren’t following the WHO recommendations for levels 5/6
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Level 5 recommendations do not call for shutting down transportation systems in areas without community-wide outbreaks.

rmrd:
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I think you are right on that, but as rose83 is commenting above, the ‘worst case’ is based on the dollar circulation model that they put together. It runs very low for worst case, in my opinion, now, for two appearant reasons. I noted that and I wonder if it is not as sophisticated a model as those that the CDC or WHO run.
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I wonder what kind of person to person communications base they run theirs on. I know there have been some.
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I think that fundamentally relying on rigorous verification as the seed for the model is probably not the best. I think they probably need to go with including unverified diagnosis by doctors as well as a statistical means of adressing nonresponse and other effects that cause the seed population to be lower than expected.
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Madrona school here has been closed.

“Never waste a good crisis”, says Rahm Emmanuel. I wonder how far this administration will go while thousands of people die, just to get a good point across on a National Healthcare agenda?
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What better way to pave for a socialist healthcare program. I just wonder how much of this is really hype, and to further the Obama healthcare agenda? Could they have unleashed a pandemic, just to prove a point? I wouldn’t put it past them all.
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I just hope that if they are playing with fire, they get burnt and burnt really bad with it.
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And, I agree with rose83. A statement like Biden gave will be taken as gospel by most Americans, no matter how stupid he is / was.

Now Rose, sometimes your response suggests that you’ve misunderstood what the other person has actually said, or at least not the context in which they said it. SG’s response to what would you do if it was your family makes sense to me. That’s not the same thing as saying what the vice president should have said as vice president, especially when he is specifically asked to respond personally not as VP.
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Dee, I’ve had family killed in terrorist attacks. That doesn’t mean I support crazy and ineffective anti-terrorist measures.
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I’m signing off for a while, but I’ll end by reiterating that acknowledging there is no need for healthy individuals to avoid public transportation systems in unaffected areas does not mean I think this is a minor issue. There is a middle ground here. And I can assure you that if a family member was one of the swine flu patients I would still happily use a subway.

53_3 and sacredh,
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ROTFLMAO
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Except that y’all now jointly owe me a keyboard for my home computer.
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sacredh – the flamethrower will most certainly kill the virus, along with accomplishing your other tacit objective. It’s a two-fer.
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53_3 – we’re located in a favorable strategic position with respect to both our apartment building and the complex as a whole. I’ve got a 180 degree on the entire southern exposure of the property and a blind in the guest bath. If they come for our tuna and crackers, it’s gonna be Stalingrad, baby!

I’ve been exploring the link
http://healthmap.org/swineflu
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It appears to operate by doing google news searches and tracking reports of the flu. The links in Central Florida and Dominica for instance point to news stories about swine flu but neither story reports cases occuring in those locations.
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Stick to the CDC for official news……

Thanks, PD. Important distinction.

Well if Bush was still in office the stores would be running out of plastic and duct tape right about now.
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Headlines after Today Show interviews:
- V Obama thinks Jessica Simpson is fat!
- VP Biden says don’t take public transportation!
You be the judge.

[...] http://swampland.blogs.time.com/2009/04/30/way-to-go-joe/ [...]

53_3:
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From a standpoint of the public health response to a new viral strain from an usual source (swine), the CDC has to be very specific in criteria to track the disease and determine the true response to antiviral agents and vaccines.
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Oseltamivir and zanamivir are being shipped to the states now. Vaccine development has begun, but there could be a 6 week lag period until an effective vaccine is ready.
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Actually, I think most people posting are already doing the basic things that need to be done in their situation. My wish would be that the MSM bring on public health and infectious disease people to provide prevention information. More emphasis on what can be done and less emphasis on Biden is what I would want.
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Regarding the computer simulations, I find them interesting and possibly helpful in the future. The simulations are works in development. I view them as I do political polls. Two polls may agree with each other, but be completely wrong when the actual votes are cast. The same could be true with the Northwestern and Indiana sims.

Did he announce that the Office of the Vice President constitutes a double-secret fourth, omnipotent, completely unchecked branch of government? No?

Well, then, consider us ahead of the game.

Ezra Klein on Biden’s “gaffe”
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http://www.prospect.org/csnc/blogs/ezraklein_archive?month=04&year=2009&base_name=is_joe_biden_right_about_swine#114808

somepeoplelikeit Says:
Thursday, April 30, 2009 at 9:02 am

“I noticed that Mexico seems to be the only one with an extremely high death rate. Perhaps because Mexico’s medical infrastructure, especially where these cases originated, isn’t as strong as ours.”

—

Easily resolved. Let’s just tax the hard working people of the United States and offer free healthcare to Mexicans. Heck, why stop there? Take Americans even more and we can support the whole planet.

^*Tax Americans even more

I know that the virus is a mutation caused by the combination of the avian, swine and Asian avian flu, but if it spreads is there a risk of further mutations or does this have to run it’s course before a new strain pops up? I’m just wondering that if a very significant number of individuals contract the virus can there be ongoing mutations?

sacredh
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I believe that mutation is a possibility and something the health officicals are worried about.

sacredh, all flu virus mutate, although this one is mutating less rapidly than some.
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About the computer simulations, the most recent of the 109 cases the CDC is confirming today are from Sunday. So they are lagging far behind the actual flu cases.

melrose001
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Since Mexico appears to be the epicenter for this outbreak, and is on our southern border, should the US expend any effort to try to aid Mexico in containing the disease? Is helping suppress the disease in Mexico beneficial to the US from a national security and public health standpoint?

I wonder what Obama thinks of crazy, old Joe. I also wonder what other folks are thinking in general about this swine flu. Will it affect YOUR life? You can weigh in with your thoughts at educlaytion.wordpress.com

[...] own family to stay off commercial airlines and even subways because of the new swine flu." Way To Go,#Joe. – Swampland – TIME.com Everybody knows, "You don’t mess with Joe." __________________ The problem is not that [...]

“Regarding the computer simulations, I find them interesting and possibly helpful in the future. The simulations are works in development. I view them as I do political polls. Two polls may agree with each other, but be completely wrong when the actual votes are cast. The same could be true with the Northwestern and Indiana sims.”
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That is something I can agree with, Paul Dirks pointed out some of the issues relating to that map that I posted, and I am still between and betwixt about it, in particular.
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I think what can safely be said is that the northwestern model is very conservative, and I think, might turn out to be too conservative.
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One way to look at it is that there is a range of possibilities embodied in both, and that would be the one I posted as probably the upper limit of what is possible, and the northwestern model representing the lower limit.
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I think that there’s too many people that expect perfection from Obama & staff.
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If only the GOP had limited themselves to this degree of error, instead of putting the entire country at risk…

Joe Biden is an idiot. What a surprise.
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Get your flu shots every year. I wish he had said that instead.

[...] Read the original here [...]

Yeah, Rose, I was wondering about you yesterday:
~
http://swampland.blogs.time.com/2009/04/29/pitchforks-on-parade/#comment-61806
~
This thread is too funny–you, the voice of understatement!? You were the only one talking about this for days.
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We may have our first case here in J-town! A HS boy in Yokohama just back from Canada. A huge holiday week here beginning tonight and the notoriously well-travelled Japanese (paying double for flights to begin with) must be really pulling their hair out now. So happy my return from the US (April 13th) was just before the media wave began.

This one’s for you Rose:
~
http://andrewsullivan.theatlantic.com/the_daily_dish/2009/04/swine-flu-in-the-hundred-acre-wood.html

[...] own family to stay off commercial airlines and even subways because of the new swine flu." Way To Go,#Joe. – Swampland – TIME.com Everybody knows, "You don’t mess with Joe"… Of course, the WH is scrambling to [...]

jcapan, LOL.
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And I hate to disappoint you and horrify SG, but I have actually been using public transportation in the past few days. Without wearing a mask.
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I guess this is the problem with being in the middle ground: you have to deal with opposition from both extremes. Soon I’ll be using “centrist” as a synonym for “good” like the MSM…

Couldn’t join the forum yesterday, hope we have another post on this subject.
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There is, as yet, absolutely no sign this is more deadly than seasonal flu, and efforts to get people to take seasonal flu more seriously are generally futile. Go figure. Maybe people will pay more attention to seasonal flu now.
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People have returned from all over Mexico with this flu, which means it has been much more widespread in Mexico than the initial reports suggested, which means the “small” numbers of death do not show it to be out of line with seasonal flu mortality.
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It would have made sense to isolate cases if there had been a chance we could nip this infection in the bud, but we are evidently past that.
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Time to work on a vaccine for this fall’s season.
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And no, I’m not complacent about these things. Every single time I enter my house, year round, I wash my hands with the bottle of Purell just inside the door.

[...] Time Magazine quotes the travel industry; “Elected officials must strike a delicate balance of accurately and adequately informing citizens of health concerns without unduly discouraging travel and other important economic activity. [...]

[...] Time Magazine quotes the travel industry; “Elected officials must strike a delicate balance of accurately and adequately informing citizens of health concerns without unduly discouraging travel and other important economic activity. [...]

[...] 9)        VP Joe Biden – He’s not a doctor or medical expert; he just plays one on morning talk shows. [...]