Swine Flu — Deja Vu?

It’s worth posting this resource here too, KT.
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Google Maps H1N1 Swine Flue Map
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Check it out:
http://maps.google.com/maps/ms?ie=UTF8&hl=en&t=p&msa=0&msid=106484775090296685271.0004681a37b713f6b5950&ll=32.639375,-110.390625&spn=15.738151,25.488281&z=5

Its also worth pausing a moment to remember the pandemic preparedness funds that were stripped from the stimulus bill after the GOP pitched a hissy fit and the MSM acted as enablers.
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http://www.thenation.com/blogs/thebeat/430261
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Those silly partisan liberals trying to prepare the country for an emergency. What were they thinking?

I just read that about Susan Collins on the other thread.
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The timing! The timing.
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I think I’m gonna be sick…

KT:
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One thing I’ve noted in the article about the Swine Flu fiasco (I remember it vaguely) is that the technology was far less certain then than it is now. Misidentifications back then I don’t think are likely to be a problem now.
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I think that what they should do is two things:
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Ramp up production of the vaccine (they have a seed stock on hand) to some middle level and distribute in outbreak areas, as, in this case, there are deaths.
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It seems that one of the reasons we aren’t seeing deaths yet here is that it is being caught earlier, before the patient has become an advanced case.
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If it gets worse, ramp up to pandemic levels.

Oh, I forgot:
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The second one?
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Run you local Republicans out of town…

In addition to any need for swine flu vaccine, we’re already in need of a big anti-lie inoculation. The worst nutbars of the Right are already blaming the anticipated (hoped-for?) epidemic on the president, based on a claim that he has rejected (for liberal political reasons, of course) a CDC recommendation for outright closing of the Mexican border. I’m pretty sure no such recommendation has been made.

Rest assured, this new lie will engulf the Loony Right while the truth is still putting on its shoes.

Yes, and lets not leave out how the GOP conservatives are still holding up confirmations of the HHS Secretary. Hmm now luckily, the Obama administration was set up in such an intellectually elegant way that even the obstacle game being played by the GOP is not preventing him from being on top of this potential pandemic.
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How long ago was it that under the Bush administration we had a major flu outbreak and discovered we had the wrong flu vaccine on hand and had to buy vaccine from European sources and wait for them to get here and be distributed or should In say rationed before we could even think about saving lives. Thank god for the Obama administration that has already moved anti-viral drugs in geographic position in case its needed. Elections do indeed have consequences.

FO:
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It will convince the ones who are True Believers. You know, dittoheads and all.
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I can imagine them trying to defend their position right in the middle of a pandemic. I have a sneaking hunch that we might see Republicans run out of town on the end of a pitchfork.
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BTW:
http://www.cdc.gov

“But one thing is clear: Our capacity to deal with a public health challenge of this sort rests heavily on the work of our scientific and medical community,” the president said. “And this is one more example of why we cannot allow our nation to fall behind.”
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Odd. On the other thread we were just discussing anti-intellectualism and the cultural pressures to “fit in’ rather than excel academically. It would appear that our Presidant feels rather strongly about that issue as well…….

BTW the secessionist Governer Rick Perry of Texas has now asked for “foreign aid” from the federal government. I thought Texas didn’t need any help from the oppressive facists. Can’t they just defeat swine flu with the sheer patriotism of their citizens?

Obama’s response may be flawless, but the angry right will find some way to blame Obama for the entire thing.

Maybe he created swine flu to kill of conservatives? That’s it!

http://www.political-buzz.com/

I’m sure that Obama will get blamed if he doesn’t singlehandedly cure this disease.
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On the other hand, if he does singlehandedly cure this disease, he’ll get blamed for wasting resources on something that never was a threat.

Unrelated, but Holder is touring London torture site:
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/30420040/
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What could that portend, pray tell…

sg:
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Can’t we just airdrop aid to Texas?

As I recall, Obama recently shook hands with not only the president of Mexico, but the president’s dog!
That bastard!

I could NOT resist!
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http://gretawire.foxnews.com/2009/04/26/swine-flu/comment-page-9/#comment-4695051
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I apologize, everyone, but I had to drop my load in the only toilet nearby…

This is all the fault of the dirty, stinkin’, disease infested illegals.

Hideous!
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Commies and pinkos and gays! Oh no!
Commies and pinkos and gays! Oh no!

KT:
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After having read this piece, I’m having trouble answering some basic questions brought up by the piece, and I’m wondering if that’s because the article descends into rank He Said/She Said, or if it’s because I have trouble with reading comprehension.
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Here are some of my questions related to quotes from the article:

Although most agree that it was a public relations disaster, health historians still debate the merits of the 1976 swine flu vaccination campaign.
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Critics call it one of the worst medical boondoggles in modern history. Defenders say it’s a classic case of aggressive public health mobilization that saved the nation from a modern plague.

Q: Would the aggressive remedial action of the Federal Government have saved lives, if the contagion in question were to have been pandemic? Is the debate over what officials did, or is it over whether there should have been anything done at all? Who are these “critics”? Who are these “defenders”? What are the agendas of each side? What are the interests of the debate’s participants?

…Army doctors said they were looking at an outbreak of swine flu.
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At the time, epidemiologists believed that a related strain of swine flu had been responsible for the great “Spanish Flu” pandemic of 1918-20, which killed more than half a million Americans and at least 20 million worldwide.
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That’s not so clear today. A recent genetic reconstruction of the 1918 virus by a team of public and private researchers suggests that it was a strain that never actually passed through swine but jumped directly from birds to humans.

Q: Were scientists, medical professionals and politicians at the time foolish for conjecturing a link between the 1918 holocaust and the outbreak in 1976? Is it possible or likely for public health officials to make such calculations without error in a timely fashion given the circumstances?

“While the manufacturers’ ultimatum reflected the trend of increased litigiousness in American society, its unintended, unmistakable subliminal message blared, ‘There’s something wrong with this vaccine,’ ” Sencer and Millar recalled.
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“This public misperception, warranted or not, ensured that every coincidental health event that occurred in the wake of the swine flu shot would be scrutinized and attributed to the vaccine,” they wrote.

Q: How does that happen, exactly? How did an “unintended” yet “unmistakable” message become a “public misperception, warranted or not”? What was the press doing during all of this? How were our professional fact-distributers covering the story? Were their stories headlined with unhelpful questions like “Is This Swine Flu a Case of 1918 Déjà Vu…or is the government-purchased vaccine a defective health risk?”

Critics say the program was too hasty and ill conceived — and that it ultimately undermined the public’s confidence in the nation’s public health apparatus.
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But Sencer and Millar, who were in the thick of the fight, said they had no regrets.
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“When lives are at stake, it is better to err on the side of overreaction than underreaction,” they wrote. “Because of the unpredictability of influenza, responsible public health leaders must be willing to take risks on behalf of the public.”

You know, KT, it occurs to me that the same sort of declaration could be made concerning the professionals who wrote this piece.
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These writers (and their editors) must be very satisfied at the refuge from criticism they were able to take by putting out this exemplary He Said/She Said. They could never have been accused by anyone of error, since they were scrupulous in their avoidance of the risk inherent in taking sides in a public debate.
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Perhaps they should have been creative enough to consider Sencer and Millar’s statement in light of its applicability to their jobs as such:
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“When lives are at stake, it is better to err on the side of taking sides than promoting confusion“. “Because of the complicated nature of technical, legal or scientific debate, responsible journalists must be willing to take risks on behalf of the public.”
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Thanks for reading and considering this, KT.

Thank God for “moderates” like Susan Collins of Maine who single-handedly stripped support for fighting pandemics out of the stimulus plan
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http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2009/4/27/724835/-Collins,-Republicans,-Killed-Off-Enhanced-Pandemic-Preparedness-
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She actually brags about it on her website.
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We should also thank the milquetoast “moderate” leadership of the Senate (Reid, Schumer, Durbin) for allowing know-nothings like Collins, Bayh, and Nelson to run over them.
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Here is a tip for Reid. Your job is not to placate the opposite party or to protect the feelings like Evan Bayh, Susan Collins or Orrin Hatch. Your job is to pass effective legislation that protects and promotes the health and welfare of the citizens of the United States.
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What is so frustrating about this is that we are facing the worst crisis in living memory. And yet, despite everything, the Senate still cannot act unless it is to protect the interests and ideology of those who got us into this mess.
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One would think that the results of “thinking” displayed by the Republicans and the Blue Dogs in the Senate would be enough to have them displaced from positions of influence. And yet Reid and Schumer continue to allow the bad ideas to have influence. It is an incredibly sorry situation. No wonder Hillary is smiling.

Stu-You are back! Thank you. Please never leave again. Thank you.

Choska-I mentioned Schumer in another post. Thanks for reminding us about the blue dogs in all of this.

Welcome back stuart! Unconditionally!

chsoka:
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How popular do you think Susan Collins might be if we reach pandemic levels?
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Also, how long before any references to her blocking the CDC money are removed from her website?
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tick tick tick tick

Thanks, Gunny.
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Thanks, 53_3.
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Somebody got in touch with me, so yesterday I went back and read some of the incredibly supportive posts regarding my decision to leave the forum, and reconsidered in favor of returning to commentary.
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It’s quite an amazing thing, actually. I’m very, very appreciative of so many compliments. I’ll try to do a better job of commenting here.
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It’s highly encouraging to see that folks with whom I’ve had substantial –even heated– disagreements (like my fellow prolific commenter 53_3) agree with me that the opportunity for such debate is a good thing. It’s great.
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This is the best pro-journo-based commentary forum I can find. The commenters here –right, center and left– are committed to helping the professionals help them. There is so much valuable commentary from everyone involved –and now almost all the pros are commenting on their own threads– so it’s been exciting to be a part of for the past two years.
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This is Journalism 2.0, and it’s quite a good thing to keep going.

No problem stuart. And make no mistake, while I continue to disagree with you on the one core issue we’ve butted heads over, I have taken home some good ideas that you’ve provided!

53_3 and everyone:

Just for the record, and before it goes down the memory hole, this is still up on Collins’s site in a 2/05/09 news release:

“After meeting with Mr. Obama, Sen. Collins expressed concern about a number of spending provisions, including $780 million for pandemic-flu preparedness. ‘I have no doubt that the president is willing to negotiate in good faith, that he wants to have a bipartisan bill,’ Sen. Collins said.”

This doesn’t have tons to do with the current efforts to deal with the swine flu problem, but does illustrate how serious this disease is.
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Back in 2001 I had just graduated college and was preparing to try out for the Army’s Special Forces units. I weighed about 200 lbs, could bench over 300 lbs and run a five minute mile. In other words, I was about as healthy as its possible to be. Then my unit got some new flu vaccines that were (supposedly) an updated version of the old swine flu vaccine.
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Within two weeks I was in a coma on life support. I stayed there for three months. Swine flu is no joke, being young and healthy and not prone to sickness isn’t a defense. That stuff will mess you up, bad. This is one of those things that we actually really do need to be afraid of and deal with extremely aggressively.

Clarification: The Collins quote on her site is a republication of a WSJ article.

I’ve noted that Susan Collins only speaks to Maine residents.
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Despite doing something that has helped f*ck up the current situation.
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And I wanted to thank her!

BTW:
Obama ordered the release of about 1/4 of the Tamiflu stock the CDC has.
http://abcnews.go.com/Health/ColdandFluNews/Story?id=7436935&page=2
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Good move!

Sean, that’s a horrifying story. Did you get sick because of the vaccine, or because it didn’t work and you got the flu?
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Also, joining my voice to those welcoming SZ back to the swamp.

Sean, wow. That must have been so difficult…
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stuart, welcome back!
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So I’ve been following the flu story obsessively, not because I’m a paranoid hypochondriac but because I’m fascinated by medicine, and pandemics in particular. Anyway, I thought this was a useful recap of some of the key questions about this flu outbreak: http://www.nytimes.com/2009/04/27/health/27questions.html?_r=1
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Also it’s worth remembering that in the 1918 epidemic about 500 million were infected and 50 million died, for a mortality rate of 10% without antibiotics, respirators, antiviral medication, etc. Even if you caught the 1918 flu, you had a 90% survival rate, which is somewhat reassuring. But the other side is that no deaths in a sample of 40 is not necessarily that reassuring.
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And again, this one is worst for the young and healthy, like the 1918 epidemic. I keep hearing people talk about how they’re young and healthy and thus not worried. Well, it’s probably not going to be a high mortality pandemic so it makes sense to not be worried. But not being worried because you’re young and healthy makes absolutely no sense.

KT,
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I’m ready to cut a deal. Please get Amy Sullivan to interact with her commenters. In return, I will stop making nasty comments on her threads. In fact, I will refrain from making any comments to her posts if she will stop acting like such a fragile flower.
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Her drive-by posting has become a real sore point.
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Many thanks.

Friar Tuck – I gave Amy up for Lent – wanting to avoid the occasion for sin and all (though saying so probably counts as sin, doesn’t it) – and I’ve gotten along just fine without her posts. Just saying.

Stuart – so glad you’re back, and I too hope the stay is permanent.

kathy,
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I admit, the problem is mine as much as hers – I’m supplying the chalkboard for her fingernails, so to speak.

Sean – how awful. Did you have any long-term effects from the swine flu? One of the characteristics of this flu, apparently, is that its effect is more serious in those with a more vigorous immune system – i.e., not the old or very young.
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I agree with others that Obama’s in a difficult box. If this is successfully contained it will look like it was a paper tiger, and as in Ford’s day, there will be many who wonder what the big deal was.
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At the same time, I wish more people would pay attention to the (largely preventable) 36,000 deaths each year in this country from the “regular” flu. I think it’s Japan that requires school kids to be vaccinated, and that largely protects the rest of the population. (I’ll look for links if someone wants me to. Otherwise, being lazy in the heat).

“I’ll try to do a better job of commenting here.”
Welcome back SZ, you were sorely missed. But PLEASE…do not do a better job of commenting. You make me look bad enough already. If you do any better I’M going to leave and come back as sacredhreturns.

KT – I caught your stint on CBC News Sunday (in a rerun this morning at 5:30). It’s always nice when you’re given enough time to actually answer questions at length. Is this a regular gig? I often catch the “National” at night. Not surprisingly, the CBC isn’t as prone to sensationalism as the MSM here. Glad to see your expanding your horizons in preparation for the possible deluge….
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Speaking of which, I thought the analogy to Hurricane preparation by Napolitano was apt. There are always those who get annoyed when a big one is predicted and then it doesn’t arrive, but I hope they’re fewer after Katrina.

Tuck – A lot of my problem with Amy is that she sounds like she’s trying so hard to be something like “cool,” and not succeeding – which no doubt says more about me than her…

Kathy, OT, but I immediately thought of you when I saw this: http://shakespearessister.blogspot.com/2009/04/clinton-pwns-pence.html
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HRC: That is my bottom line, Mr. Pence. My bottom line is: I am here to serve my country, which I have loved ever since I was a little girl.

So I appreciate your strong feelings, but I think that, ah, we are pursuing a course that, uh, may very well open up some additional opportunities that we hope will be in our interests and advance our values and protect our security.
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I don’t know if you’ve already seen that but I thought you’d appreciate it.

Rose – thanks for the link. The thing I admire most about Hillary is her ability to swallow her pride and dig down into deep loyalty – a rare virtue, and one I’m not sure I have to that degree, though I haven’t been tested like she has.
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Don’t remember if I ever told you that when Bill and Hillary were leaving office I got into a bit of an argument with a friend (who supported Hillary this primary) who insisted that Hillary would divorce Bill. I was very certain she would not. She took vows, and she took them seriously. So we set a time limit of five years. My friend forgot, but – knowing I was going to win, I remembered! – and called her on January 21, 2006 to remind her she owed me dinner out.

Don’t remember if I ever told you that when Bill and Hillary were leaving office I got into a bit of an argument with a friend (who supported Hillary this primary) who insisted that Hillary would divorce Bill. I was very certain she would not. She took vows, and she took them seriously. So we set a time limit of five years. My friend forgot, but – knowing I was going to win, I remembered! – and called her on January 21, 2006 to remind her she owed me dinner out.
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I would have made the same bet, although for more cynical reasons! She never could have run for President or probably even the Senate if her ex-husband were the party’s last President. But I agree that she is loyal to him. And it was clear that he desperately wanted her to win so I guess her loyalty was returned.
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I was just thinking recently that this is the first time she could divorce him without paying a severe professional price. Obama couldn’t and wouldn’t fire her for getting divorced, and she has no future political prospects to protect. Maybe you could point this out to your friend and convince her to make another bet! I’m sure you’d win it again.

Thanks so much for your too kind words, folks.

Stuart – So glad you think us kind, but beyond that there’s a certain self interest here. The ole’ Swampland would not be the same without you. So I’m just hoping you know it’s more than kindness.

Stuart – So glad you think us kind, but beyond that there’s a certain self interest here. The ole’ Swampland would not be the same without you. So I’m just hoping you know it’s more than kindness.
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I second that.

The republicans pray for rain when Obama moves his convention speech to Mile High Stadium and a hurricane hits during theirs and forces the cancellation of some of their events. Bobby Jindal mocks volcano monitoring and one erupts in Alaska. The republicans strip pandemic funds from the budget and a swine flu pandemic hits. Is this just a coincidence or is God trying to make them look even worse for using HIS name for political purposes?

KT, yeah, it was due to the vaccine and my bodies’ overreaction to stamping it out, which ended up destroying my entire neuromuscular system. At least that was the majority opinion of my doctors and whatnot. (I tend to believe them due to numbers and experience level – I never dealt with any doctors below department head level)
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Everyone else that expressed sympathy, thanks. Mostly OK now, some lingering effects, but nothing that makes it impossible for me to function as a productive member of society. And that’s enough about me.
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Welcome back SZ.

SZ I think I can feel the heat off your cheeks from here. Trust me my workdays would be even more of a chore without your incisive commentary. You REALLY need to get your own blog or something. Plus KT missed you and was quite upset at your departure, and I don’t think making KT upset is a wise idea!

sacredh:
” Is this just a coincidence or is God trying to make them look even worse for using HIS name for political purposes?”
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If it weren’t so sacriligious for me to say so, I would say that God is clowning on ‘em.
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How else would you suppose it is? Besides, like spob has pointed out, since you can’t prove it’s not true, it therefore must be true!

Rose – I’ve thought a lot about why Hillary did stay with Bill after such humiliation – the “vast right wing conspiracy” comment from her was a defense against the attacks on Bill. It must have become searingly clear that the rest of us had made a more accurate assessment of him than she had – and then besides she had to endure those who were sure she had known but had put on the act for her own purposes. Pretty hard to take.

One should never accuse God of not having a sense of humor. After all, he did give Ann Coulter a penis and left Rush without the ability to use his. And we wonder why they’re so angry all the time.

Kathy, honestly it seems that most powerful people have strange marriages. Looking at Chelsea, I suspect theirs is better than a lot of other political marriages. He’s better than John Edwards…
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And I suspect that she suspected something, but we’ll never really know.
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But I actually think she was right to stay with him. She came so close to the Presidency and that chance would have been lost if she had left him. Maybe that seems cold, but even a chance at the Presidency is a lot to give up. I remember hearing that Obama left a white woman he was seeing because he just couldn’t feel comfortable with her white, prosperous family. Well maybe that’s true, but he also wouldn’t be President if he had a white wife. And I wouldn’t blame him if his political ambitions informed his decision.
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Politicians have to pretend to know pop culture, and bowl, and do normal people stuff. But they’re not normal and we don’t even want them to be normal. Maybe it’s too much to ask that their personal lives be normal.

One should never accuse God of not having a sense of humor. After all, he did give Ann Coulter a penis and left Rush without the ability to use his. And we wonder why they’re so angry all the time.
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“…not knowing that God is also a generous God, but he also has a sense of humor. And if you leave that much open for God, some wonderful tricks are going to come into play.”
-Bill Cosby