Cole on Pakistan

Joe
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It was the Taliban behind that explosion in India? I am being serious because I hadn’t heard who had either took responsibility or who the investigation had led to. It would seem to sophisticated an attack for them to carry out, but if that did then they are a lot more worrisome than I originally thought.

Oh and I wanted to thank you for addressing Cole’s post.

“I don’t think a coup is as much of a threat as a disintegration–and the biggest threat of all is a reunited Af/Pak Pastunistan, led by the Taliban, a virtually impregnable safe haven for Al Qaeda and the rest of the world’s worst.
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Joe, I think, in this case, it might be in some respects “impregnable”, but on the other hand, such an entitiy might be preferable in that it would be possible to isolate it and provide focus. It is easier to zero in on specific state than it is to focus on a shadow movement confined to parts of several sovereign states.
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I know my reasoning isn’t perfect, as nothing is cut and dried, especially this stuff, but such an entitiy could be subject to sanctions and other tools we can’t use against Afghanistan and Pakistan.

“They also nearly brought Pakistan to war with India after the Mumbai massacre–and who would gainsay the possibility of war if they hit India dramatically again?”
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The Taliban hasn’t been linked with the Mumbai attack. According to India, the most likely culprit is Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT), perhaps aided and abetted by the Interservices Intelligence Agency (ISI).

Off topic but something people might want to read about
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http://www.newsweek.com/id/195089/output/print
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But Soufan had poured through the bureau’s intelligence files and stunned Abu Zubaydah when he called him “Hani”—the nickname that his mother used for him. Soufan also showed him photos of a number of terror suspects who were high on the bureau’s priority list. Abu Zubaydah looked at one of them and said, “That’s Mukhtar.”
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Now it was Soufan who was stunned. The FBI had been trying to determine the identity of a mysterious “Mukhtar,” whom bin Laden kept referring to on a tape he made after 9/11. Now Soufan knew: Mukhtar was the man in the photo, terror fugitive Khalid Sheikh Mohammed, and, as Abu Zubaydah blurted out, ” the one behind 9/11.”

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The reason this is important is because pro torturist and Cheney apologist Marc Thiessen who has been given a microphone to provide rank propaganda has a post up at NRO giving credit for the gleaning of this information to the CIA and enhanced interrogation techniques. Soufan if of course FBI
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http://corner.nationalreview.com/post/?q=ZTEzMjc3YWU3ZmJiNzA3NThhNjdiMmY4MDkzNjRlMDY=

I do not think that taliban can take over the entire Pakistan any time soon. Only thing the taliban can do in Pakistan is to engage stealth attacks, suicide bombings blow-up hotels here and there. These capabilities are not enough to bring down an entire country or take on the Pakistani army head-to-head. If taliban is at the doorsteps of Pakistan’s capital, it’s because the Pakistan’s army and ISI has let them do just that.
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There is very little support for taliban and it’s antics within the Pakistani Public, if there was any support, why did the religious parties loose big in the previous elections.
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I believe all that we are seeing is a ploy by the Pakistani government to extract as much concessions as possible from the US government and other freaked out western governments.

Taliban and Mumbai? Have seen nothing in serious Indian circles about this. Linkage with Lashkar-e-Taiba more like it. (pneogy raises a useful caution).

Cole does not push the Taliban meme all that much and I am inclined to listen to/read his analyses in preference to the anointed ones in the “think” tanks of our metropolis.

I see that Atlantic has got into the swing of things: our esteemed Villagers getting their off the record jollies with the well connected. And drinks and dinner too.

uan Cole offers some reasoned thoughts on Pakistan, bringing some needed balance to the conversation. I would add a few caveats, though:
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LOL!
Cole basically pwns Klein’s personal Taliban alarmism, Klein acts as if he is not among those whom Cole is writing about, then Klein resumes his Taliban alarmism.
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Joe really embarrasses himself here, with nonsense like 2. Proximity is destiny: the Taliban are located very close to the twin cities, Islamabad and Rawalpindi, the governmental and military capitals of Pakistan, and therefore have disproportionate power to make trouble.
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Cole already disposed of this nonsense with this
” It is like saying that Lynchburg, Va., is close to Washington DC and thereby implying that Jerry Falwell’s movement is about to take over the latter.”

For some years, I’ve been in the “We have to be in Afghanistan because of Pakistan” camp. Interesting to watch Juan Cole’s calm and cogent points, balanced by Joe Klein’s near irrelevancies, slowly tipping my convictions the other way.

“Power to make trouble” is Joe’s key phrase. If he can’t unpack it into something more serious than “power to launch frequent small attacks in Pakistan and an occasional small attack in Western countries” – then this doesn’t really amount to some huge geopolitical deal.

More and more, I get to thinking that our primary concern in Pakistan ought not to be the tribal areas, but looking for a way to be honest brokers on Kashmir. If that tinderbox were deprived of fuel, Pakistan would lose its studied ambivalence toward the Taliban. As long as it’s not so deprived, only a perception on Pakistan’s part that its own survival is contingent on quashing the insurgents could end that ambivalence. And Cole makes a pretty compelling case that Pakistan quite sensibly entertains no such perception.

Another cop killer upset about Obama being President and convinced the government was out to get him.
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http://www.nwfdailynews.com/news/cartwright_16963___article.html/elizabeth_deputies.html
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Will anybody notice the pattern emerging?

I think a Pushtunistan would be a GOOD idea.

The entire problem of “Pakistan” is that it was founded as a multi-ethnic, multi-lingual state whose sole source of national identity and unity was Islam. Regardless of its founders’ intentions that that Islam be of a moderate variety, such a framework creates a “more Muslim than thou” race that extremists will quickly win.

Furthermore in order to suppress the national aspirations of its component ethnic groups the central government must either be tyrannical or buy off local leadership with massive corruption or overwhelm locals with an influx of aliens as in Tibet. Islamabad does all three and is failing.

Worst of all, the Pushtuns currently exploit their statelessness as an asset. The “Pakistan”/”Afghanistan” border that neatly bifurcates their homeland creates smuggling opportunities and refuge from central authority.

And there’s no way to hold them accountable through diplomacy, sanctions, or war.

Ending this mess and breaking up this creaky and ramshackle construct is long overdue.

“East Pakistan” broke away already.

A Pushtunistan would be or have a reasonable potential of being a viable nation-state, one which other states can hold accountable.

As a nation-state, it could have an identity based on ethnicity, kinship, language, and local culture rather than a fanatical and sterile version of a faith from faraway Arabia.

We’d of course have to break up “Afghanistan” as well, another stapled-together Austria-Hungary limping along well past its “best by” date.

The local Uzbeks, Tajiks, Kyrgyz, Turkmen, etc. would no doubt rather be part of a land of their ethnic kinsmen rather than hear more endless lectures about multi-cultural utopia, and I’m certain their already existing nations would not object to annexing the relevant regions of “Afghanistan”.

Finally and most interestingly we have the Baloch. We can merge the Baloch regions of “Afghanistan” and “Pakistan” to make another new and independent nation-state of Balochistan.

And this one would serve as a very useful base to exert pressure on “Iran” (yet another empire in need of break-up) which has a large Baloch region that borders Balochistan.

“Iran” is barely majority-Persian and all its borders straddle non-Persian ethnic groups that either already have nation-states (Arabs, Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan) or want them (Kurdistan, Balochistan, Pushtunistan) etc. etc.

I am glad to see this post getting the indifference it deserves.

I join you FT, except gotta put in 2 cents. Withdraw. Leave them to sort it out. We’re not their mamma.

The mess in Pakistan can still be contained but American enthusiasm and Pakistani army is not enough.

Rather than making it an American problem – as it has been because of Taliban and Al-queda’s proximity to Afganistan – it should concern all the country that border Pakistan, i.e. India and China. Jardari’s government should invite both of these countries to commit the troops with signifcant American help in with the training and logistics.

Taliban always does better when it has a single enemy to deal with. It is easier to win the hearts of local population and young recruits if Taliban is seen as the only savior against the marching enemy. Soviet union’s loss in Afganistan attribute to this nature of it’s operation.

At this moment, after America, the mortal enemy for their way of lifestyle is the moderate government of Jardari. But when China and India are involved taliban’s PR war will suffer a blow.

On the other hand I think India and China ( mildly however) will agree to take out Taliban rather than have a crazy neighbor with nukes aimed at them.

Formerlyjames: Amen to that.

I join you FT, except gotta put in 2 cents. Withdraw. Leave them to sort it out. We’re not their mamma.
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Ditto here.
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It’s not like the history of foreign interventions in that part of the world is rife with examples of success.
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Throughout history, pretty much EVERYONE has left the area with a toe ot two missing where they shot themselves in the foot trying to correct what they perceived as the “problem”. All that seems to be happening is that we hand the gun to someone else so they can repeat the mistake.