In the Arena

Cole on Pakistan

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Juan Cole offers some reasoned thoughts on Pakistan, bringing some needed balance to the conversation. I would add a few caveats, though:

1. The Taliban are a small minority, but they nearly blew up the entire Zardari cabinet at the Marriott Hotel last September. They(Add: Their first-cousin jihadis, Lashkar-e-taiba) also nearly brought Pakistan to war with India after the Mumbai massacre–and who would gainsay the possibility of war if they hit India dramatically again?

2. Proximity is destiny: the Taliban are located very close to the twin cities, Islamabad and Rawalpindi, the governmental and military capitals of Pakistan, and therefore have disproportionate power to make trouble. (Add: They also have strong connections with the Pakistani military and intelligence services, which makes the sale or theft of nuclear fuel a not implausible horror scenario.)

3. I’m not so sure about the Army: Yes, the Pakistani Army has traditionally been closely allied with the U.S. military–but for 16 Clinton-Bush years, we were “punishing” the Paks for their nuclear program and didn’t train, or establish relationships, with the most promising young Pakistani officers (i.e. those moving into positions of real authority now). Furthermore, the Pakistani Army has little experience in the sort of counter-insurgency warfare necessary to fight the Taliban, if they choose to do so. And further-furthermore, successful counterinsurgency requires a strong civilian component–a coherent system of justice, education, economic development–which the Pakistani government seems incapable of providing.

4. The Obama Administration, unlike its predecessor, strongly favors bolstering Pakistan’s democracy–$7.5 billion Kerry-Lugar bill ain’t peanuts–but, contra Cole, while the two largest Pakistani parties may be well-established, they are hopelessly corrupt.

5. I don’t think a coup is as much of a threat as a disintegration–and the biggest threat of all is a reunited Af/Pak Pastunistan, led by the Taliban, a virtually impregnable safe haven for Al Qaeda and the rest of the world’s worst.