Meeting the Iranians

Good post Joe

It’s amazing how much of American public discourse has faded in the last eight years of Dubya bloviation. So much of true diplomacy happens behind the scenes, in small gestures, that only come to fruition when changes in policy manifest themselves. Even in the darkest hours with the Soviet Union there was ALWAYS an open line of communication between Washington and Moscow. If something like that were to be established in Teheran, that in and of itself would be a sea change. Iran has every right to be cautious; after all, thirty years of mistrust and suspcicion don’t evaporate with the wave of a hand. I sincerely hope Obama et al seize the opportunities opening up ahead of us to make it a better world for all of us.

It still boggles my mind that GHWB had so little influence on W. vis a vis foreign policy. It’s good to see the grown ups in charge again.
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Thanks for the post, Joe.

i think it’s rather remarkable how very little controversy there is on the substance of Obama’s foreign policy approach, besides the fellow neocon.
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I wasn’t old enough to understand G.W.H.Bush’s ultra-realist policy but i feel so much more safer and approving of it than either a super-dovish or a neocon policy. I think the only substantial strikes against it would perhaps be that we’re willing to sacrifice some values if our objectives exceed them in importance, and perhaps accept that a midrange,or extremely dangerous short-term situation justifies a long-term headache (like cia channeling arms to potential future enemies.)
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overall, i can’t say im disappointed.

This sounds very hopeful and I take it that gavotte is some sort of term you learn in Foreign Service school? Nice word! Thanks for the post, Joe.

Joe Klein:
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Clearly, cooperation on the Af/Pak part of the program is proceeding apace and it ain’t happening by osmosis.
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It appears that you are correct, and events do bear out your impressions of the situation.
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The new counter-narcotics initiative introduced by Iran’s Mohammad Mehdi Akhundzadeh is quite encouraging.
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Proper cooperative engagement on “Af/Pak” –as you like to term the Afghanistan Occupation– as John Kerry recently described it

“In 2001 and 2002, we should not forget, Iran provided critical assistance to helping us stabilise Afghanistan,” John Kerry, the top Democrat on the US Senate foreign relations committee, noted last week in the confirmation hearing for the nominee for US ambassador to Afghanistan, Lt Gen Karl Eikenberry

is not without the realm of possibility, given Akhundzadeh’s statements

[Akhundzadeh] repeated Tehran’s criticism of the Nato role in Afghanistan, but used relatively moderate language, saying: “The presence of foreign forces has not improved things and it seems that an increase in the number of foreign forces will prove ineffective, too.”
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Akhundzadeh added: “The military expenses need to be redirected to the training of the Afghan police and army and Afghanisation should lead the government building process” – an apparent nod towards the Obama administration’s decision to send 4,000 more American military trainers.
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Western officials expressed hopes that the west and Iran could return to the close co-operation over Afghanistan that took place in the months after the 9/11 attacks. Iranian officials even helped the US target the Taliban, but the relationship cooled after Bush’s “axis of evil” speech.

So please continue to help readers keep informed on these very interesting developments, Joe Klein.
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Thanks so much for this substantive post.

One of the more depressing exercises you can engage in is to look at the Cui Bono of a hostile state between two countries. If there weren’t people for whom Peace is an undesirable state of affairs, then it would be significantly easier to achieve. But unfortunately there are significant factions among ANY population for whom the benefits of warfare and bellicosity outweigh the costs. Of course arms manufacturers are high on the list but even entertainment and (dare I say it) news organizations can profit from international hostility.
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Identifying and publicly outing such people is an important public service.
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They can be spotted by the growing irrationality in their attacks on our current President.

[...] 1, 2009 · No Comments joe klein: Obama issues Nawruz greetings, Supreme Leader scoffs, Larijani fumes, Holbrooke shakes hand of [...]

Any thoughts on Juan Cole’s take on the situation, Joe?
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http://www.salon.com/opinion/feature/2009/03/30/afghanistan/index.html
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As for a threat to Pakistan, the FATA areas are smaller than Connecticut, with a total population of a little over 3 million, while Pakistan itself is bigger than Texas, with a population more than half that of the entire United States. A few thousand Pashtun tribesmen cannot take over Pakistan, nor can they “kill” it. The Pakistani public just forced a military dictator out of office and forced the reinstatement of the Supreme Court, which oversees secular law. Over three-quarters of Pakistanis said in a poll last summer that they had an unfavorable view of the Taliban, and a recent poll found that 90 percent of them worried about terrorism. To be sure, Pakistanis are on the whole highly opposed to the U.S. military presence in the region, and most outside the tribal areas object to U.S. Predator drone strikes on Pakistani territory. The danger is that the U.S. strikes may make the radicals seem victims of Western imperialism and so sympathetic to the Pakistani public.

Joe, great post. Thanks.
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When thinking about this whole situation, I can’t help but remember the quote from George H.W. Bush on why he didn’t invade Iraq and depose Saddam. “I don’t think we’d ever be able to leave.” Or something to that effect.
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I got called up for my first deployment to the middle east on December 26, 2002. Currently I’m scheduled for a second one beginning sometime in late 2011. I’ll return from that deployment (assuming nothing changes, which is unlikely) a decade, more or less, from the first time I left.
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When I get back, no child under the age of 11 (6th grade or so) will have ever known a world where the U.S. wasn’t at war. I wonder how high that number will get before this all ends?
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Hopefully efforts like this will help bring that day about sooner, rather than later.

Paul Dirks said:

“One of the more depressing exercises you can engage in is to look at the Cui Bono of a hostile state between two countries. If there weren’t people for whom Peace is an undesirable state of affairs, then it would be significantly easier to achieve. But unfortunately there are significant factions among ANY population for whom the benefits of warfare and bellicosity outweigh the costs. Of course arms manufacturers are high on the list but even entertainment and (dare I say it) news organizations can profit from international hostility.
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Identifying and publicly outing such people is an important public service.”
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QFT! Great post, and exactly what I’ve been thinking and saying for a long time.

So Tobin thinks Holbrooke was reluctant. The people at Commentary weave gossamer fables, Joe. If you have time to drop in to Qatar you may find evidence of Iran-American conversations over the last three months.

[...] Yesterday Richard Holbrooke met with an Iranian diplomat, about which Joe Klein [...]

Bitter–

Yes, I”ve been to Qatar in the past month. I’ve been hearing the same whispers in the breeze.

[...] if a few members of that team were being consulted about the diplomacy that is ongoing. Meeting the Iranians :: Swampland – TIME.com [...]

Joe Klein:
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Thank you so much for responding to commentary; it is greatly appreciated.

The Israelis and their lovely lobby will do whatever they can to make reconciliation between America and Iran impossible or diminished. After all, Iran has much more to offer American interests than Israel ever has. Can’t really look to “public overtures” for clear indications of what is going on as both the Americans and Iranians know the type of propaganda tactics the Israelis will use to meddle in affairs they are being left out of.

persianadvocate:
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I think Isreal is already tossing monkey wrenches in the direction of the wheels of diplomacy. Though somewhat unrelated, Avigdor the Bigot is already setting the table for yet another round of extremism:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/7977002.stm
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Israel may become a millstone around the neck of American efforts for peace as Bush is a millstone around the necks of the GOP.
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The Isrealis are likely to try to keep things hot, and I think that the threat Israel represents to the economies of the world (through it’s efforts to promote an attack on Iran) that Obama may have to take concrete measures to signal Israel that the buck stops here.
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The best initial move:
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Refuse Lieberman’s portfolio.