Re: The Story to Watch Today

Here‘s the new CBO report on the president’s budget. It estimates a $1.8 trillion deficit in 2009, lowering to $1.4 trillion in 2010 and declining to 4% of GDP by 2012, though overall it expects $4.8 trillion in deficits 2010-2019 — in other words remaining between 4% and 6% of GDP for the decade.

Update1:
The percentage of GDP number here is important because President Obama had aimed to slash the deficit to $533 billion or 3% of GDP by 2013. We’re still reading through the 56-page report and White house Press Secretary Robert Gibbs is expected to brief soon — so I’m sure there will be more to come.

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  • stuartzechman

    Jay Newton-Small:
    .
    Does this mean that we don’t have enough money to occupy two countries indefinitely?

  • rustyreturns

    Physicians’ Payment Rates. A proposed change in the calculation
    of the rates paid to physicians under Medicare
    would result in additional outlays totaling an estimated
    $285 billion over the next 10 years. Under current law,
    Medicare’s payment rates for physicians’ services will be
    reduced by about 21 percent in 2010 and by about 6 percent
    a year for most of the rest of the decade
    . The President’s
    policy would freeze those payment rates at the
    2009 level through at least 2019.
    .
    Yes, change we CAN believe in…Now there will not be a doctor to go to even if you have Universal (Socialist) Healthcare paid by the government. All of the Physicians will now become engineers.
    .
    “Eat Cheese” says President Obama!
    .
    CBO’s Short Term Forecast
    In CBO’s forecast, the decline in output continues until
    the fall. But the rate of decline slows after the first quarter,
    in part because the effects of ARRA begin to take
    hold. Reduced tax-withholding rates and increased aid to
    low-income households in the form of expanded unemployment
    insurance and payments from the Supplemental
    Nutrition Assistance Program
    will support consumer
    spending in 2009, as will lower prices for energy. And the
    stimulus legislation will also contribute to growth via
    purchases of goods and services by the federal government
    and averted reductions in spending or increases in
    taxes that would have otherwise occurred at the state and
    local levels. However, CBO expects that high unemployment,
    tight credit conditions, and the declines in wealth
    will restrain the growth of consumption.
    .
    Since January, CBO has lowered its estimates of inflation
    for all of the projection period. The expectation of a
    deeper recession and slow recovery implies high unemployment
    rates and a great deal of excess capacity for
    many years. Those factors make it likely that the United
    States will experience very low inflation for a long time.
    .
    Yes Ladies and Gentlemen, this is great news! Great news because by April 30th, we should have enough evidence to IMPEACH this idiot and get him out of office once and for all!

  • Tom in The Swamp

    Given the way that the non-military public sector has been starved of discretionary funding since 1980, and the inevitably resulting crumbling infrastructure in this country, and given the economic cluster#@ck bank deregulation has brought upon us, 4% to 6% of GDP for a decade sounds about right.

    And, of course, this number could be significantly reduced if we were, instead of spending considerably more than the sum total of the rest of the world’s nations on our military, we reduced that spending to only 50% of the sum total of the rest of the world’s nations.

    We could do that easily without endangering our national security one whit, though we might have to give up some level of hegemony.

    Seems like a fair exchange to me.

  • stuartzechman

    Jay Newton-Small:
    .
    …and, BTW, notorious assclown @jaketapper became a total tool today by actually blocking @TPMMedia from following him –in addition to @jayackroyd, @adamserwer and other members of the now growing list #badgeofhonor.
    .
    @jaketapper tweets: “if blog comment board is bile-filled and obnoxious, isn’t the blogger’s job to keep it clean?
    .
    Obviously he hasn’t been near a blog’s commentary ( like @swampland ) in his life. Pretty incredible for a supposed member of the modern press corps.
    .
    What planet does this guy live on?

  • Tom in The Swamp

    Poor rusty can’t read. The paragraph he quotes states that Obama’s proposal revokes existing scheduled rate reductions for physicians — yet he draws from that statement that Obama plans to reduce rates paid to physicians, the exact opposite of the facts.
    .
    Hey, rusty, whose talking points e-mail did you cut-and-paste that from?

  • stuartzechman

    rustyreturns:
    .
    Under current law, Medicare’s payment rates for physicians’ services will be reduced
    .
    The President‘s policy would freeze those payment rates
    .
    Got that, Rustydog?
    .
    Here it is in caveman-Tarzan-Frankenstein-Tonto language:
    .
    CURRENT LAW REDUCE PAYMENT…OBAMA NOT LIKE
    .
    PRESIDENT KEEP PAYMENT SAME INSTEAD…HE CHANGE LAW
    .
    Did you not actually read what you posted?

  • shepherdwong

    *Sigh*
    .
    Read this and tell us why deficits are “the story to watch” this day or any other for the next 20 years. Because you and your peers say so isn’t cutting it anymore, in case you haven’t seen the memo.

  • http://nicewhitelady.blogspot.com/ joyomama

    SZ, I found myself fishing for my twitter grammar guide, but I think I mis-constructed a tweet that you construed as Tapper’s. Here is the actual exchange:

    jaketapper: enough bile out there that i dont need it here on twitter.dialogue, yes. insults no. blog comment board and bathroom walls still avail 4 all

    joyomama: @jaketapper if blog comment board is bile-filled and obnoxious, isn’t the blogger’s job to keep it clean? I suppose you’ll block me now, too

    jaketapper: @joyomama It’s a good point – but when ABC monitors try to keep it clean, folks complain of censorship.i used to love to read the comments

    jaketapper: @joyomama @teribeau the alternative is 2 not block anyone and not read the comments, as is more or less case with bile-y blog comments

    joyomama: RT @jaketapper the alternative is 2 not block anyone and not read the comments. RIP Web 2.0 so sad. (tear trickles down my stoic visage)

  • gysgt213

    Is twitter some kind of lame instant messenger? For godsakes.

  • stuartzechman

    OMG!
    .
    joyomama:
    .
    I apologize for mis-copying your tweet. Thanks for clarifying.
    .
    His actual tweet makes @jaketapper sound like even more of a douche than my mis-copies, however!
    .
    What a colossal tool…

  • Friar Tuck

    Sorry to be a Luddite, but remind me why it’s important for everybody to be able to grok Jake Twit’s Tapper, or whatever?
    .
    Somebody that can still Tap Twit’s Tweet will just have to pass the pap along to the rest of us, which is apparently what’s already happening?

  • Friar Tuck

    I’ve said it before – this stuff is just burning the heck out of the CPM cartridge in my COmmodore 64.

  • Aaron

    Thanks to Jay Newton-Small for the summary.
    .
    I started pulling together a comparison to show the January report, the pre-budget estimate, and the estimate, but then I remembered this from Justin Fox (posted Wednesday):

    Helicopter Ben finally hauls out the helicopter

    The big news of the week isn’t that the deficit is big, but why the next CBO defict estimate will be bigger no matter what. The recession we are in is so ridiculously huge that Ben Bernanke is figuratively throwing money out of a helicopter. The Fed is going to start buying up to $750 billion worth of mortgage securities and up to $300 billion worth of long-term Treasuries for the first time since World War II.
    .
    Seriously, read this post at The Curious Capitalist. (Just trying to add some context.)

  • http://nicewhitelady.blogspot.com/ joyomama

    gunny: Perhaps it is a “lame instant messenger”, if you just look at form. Content quality varies, just like books and newspaper. And blogs. pourmecoffee’s haiku translates well, though, and there is a voyeuristic element to twitter that is completely different from IM. Clearly, like fashion, it is not everyone’s cup of tea.

  • Aaron

    Is twitter some kind of instant messenger?

    Yes. That is all it is.

    Is twitter some kind of lame instant messenger?

    Aren’t they all?

  • bitterpill8

    Query: is Jake Tapper and his twitterers now reducing their discussions to 140 letters at a time. Must make for really lucid commentary. Sounds very third dimension to me.

  • stuartzechman

    Sorry, FT.
    .
    ABC News’ Senior White House Correspondent Jake Tapper is responding to people’s polite, valid criticisms of his work by blocking access to his twittering.
    .
    Basically, if there’s anything valuable he has to say from the White House, he’s not willing to share it with you unless you always say good things about him.
    .
    It’s an enormous breech of the honor code, and the kind of thing real pricks do. It corrupts the whole idea of Twitter. Only the authors of truly and chronically abusive messages should be literally blocked access.
    .
    @TPMMedia is Josh Marshall’s Talking Points Memo twitter account. The fact that Tapper blocked access to TPM –another news organization– really hammers home how pernicious this kind of bad behavior is, and how it destroys the value of the whole system.
    .
    There’s now a growing search list called #badgeofhonor whose members are blocked by Tapper. Basically, everybody should try to get tapper to block them, so that he has a choice: block everybody, and have no value at all, or block nobody who isn’t abusing the system, and participate the way the thing was intended.
    .
    It’s incredible what kind of egomaniacs these media celebrity-wannabees are, FT.

  • shepherdwong

    “The recession we are in is so ridiculously huge that Ben Bernanke is figuratively throwing money out of a helicopter. The Fed is going to start buying up to $750 billion worth of mortgage securities and up to $300 billion worth of long-term Treasuries for the first time since World War II.”
    .
    And any functioning press, worth a bag of warm snot, would be reporting on the imminent disaster we are facing and what still needs to be done to try to avert catastrophe. Instead, their “conservative” masters easily convince our air-headed press corp that “the story” is about deficits and what Tim Geithner knew and when did he know it. We are absolutely screwed.

  • Friar Tuck

    Thanks, SZ, both for the information and the correct assumption that I wasn’t ragging at you.
    .
    Egomania is legion.

  • bitterpill8

    SZ: Tapper and Twit are interchangeable.

  • stuartzechman

    Here’s more on the Tapper Twitter Toolism.
    .
    Now Tapper has walked back by unblocking @TPMMedia, apparently.
    .
    So if you’re just you and me little guys, he’ll be completely dishonorable with no thought about it.
    .
    If you write for a major blog like TPM, then he’ll think about it, unblock you, ignore screenshots of it, and try to pretend that it didn’t happen.
    .
    What an assclown.

  • http://phd9.blogspot.com Paul Dirks
  • http://nicewhitelady.blogspot.com/ joyomama

    This is more fun than a soap opera.
    .
    yellowduc @jaketapper lets talk about transparency jake
    jaketapper @yellowduc ok lets- what’s up?
    jaketapper @yellowduc tpm is unblocked. My bad.

  • stuartzechman

    Example of a tweet (from @jryanlaw ) that gets Jake Tapper to take the proactive step of blocking you:
    .

    @jaketapper I’m also preparing 4 a day of hiprocrisy when some journalists act lk S.O. remark is a story & focus on that rather than economy

    .
    , unless you write for a huge blog, and his wrongness gets exposed, in which case he’ll say “My bad”.
    .
    OK, sorry about this, folks.
    .
    I’ll get back to reading that CBO report PDF at the link Jay Newton-Small was totally cool enough to provide for us.
    .
    I apologize for hijacking your thread, Jay Newton-Small.

  • stuartzechman

    Jay Newton-Small:
    .
    What’s scaring you is the big drop total deficit to gdp, but what should scare everybody is the big drop in gdp potential to real output, and how long they’re projecting that climb back up to take.
    .
    This is the story of the deficit:
    .

    Largely as a result of the enactment of recent legislation
    and the continuing turmoil in financial markets,
    CBO’s baseline projections of the deficit have risen by
    more than $400 billion in both 2009 and 2010 and by
    smaller amounts thereafter. Those projections assume
    that current laws and policies remain in place. Under
    that assumption, CBO now estimates that the deficit
    would total almost $1.7 trillion (11.9 percent of gross
    domestic product, or GDP) this year and $1.1 trillion
    (7.9 percent of GDP) next year—the largest deficits as
    a share of GDP since 1945. Deficits would shrink to
    about 2 percent of GDP by 2012 and remain in that
    vicinity through 2019.

    .
    That’s not really what’s chilling about the report.

  • Art Pepper

    2% of GDP is about where you want a gov’t deficit, isn’t it?

  • rustyreturns
  • dfh

    The big story this week among the people I work with was the “Obama raise’ everyone got. The main office was swamped with people asking why there was extra money in their paycheck this week. Interesting how this got no coverage by the press. Were we the only ones who got a tax cut? The media was all over the stimulus checks Bush sent out but silence on this. Tweety was just talking about all of the tax increases Obama is planning but reality flies in the face of that.

  • shepherdwong

    “2% of GDP is about where you want a gov’t deficit, isn’t it?”
    .
    At the moment, with a tanking job market, frozen credit, flattened real estate values and retirement accounts and financial nukes possibly buried all around the globe, I could give a flying f*ck what the gov’t deficit is. Not that you’d know it from listening to the people who are employed to inform us about what is important but, for the foreseeable future, deficits are the least of our problems.

  • Art Pepper

    Because Tweety is in the bracket that will get a tax raise. Forget the peons, who cares.

  • shepherdwong

    Actually that’s not right. I would very much like to see enormous government deficits for at least the next 3-5 years.

  • Art Pepper

    Shepherd: Yes – larger deficit spending now. But assuming we’re out of the mess by 2012, I thought 2-3% was approx what economists say is reasonable. (However, I base that entirely on my own faulty memory of various Economist articles, so I could be way off!)
    .
    Also, as I understand, our wiggle room during this crisis is less than it might have been, because the previous administration ballooned the debt.
    .
    I suppose the media could analyze this stuff.

  • Art Pepper

    Also maybe 2012 is too optimistic! I sure hope not.

  • palininatowel

    I note Halperin gives McCain’s statement prominent play…
    .
    McCain: Obama’s Budget A “Threat to the Nation”
    .
    Note to Mark Halperin: the campaign is over. Obama won.

  • formerlyjames

    I was just watching the teevee and learned of one of the AIG incompetents named Joseph Cassano, guru of the London office, stuffing away millions in compensation all the while taking unheard of risks until he flushed $62 billion down the sewers.
    .
    Everybody is always focused on criminal behavior and locking these people up. Obama said last nite that the sad part is that there was little actual illegal activity. But you can sue in civil court anybody for anything. Gross negligence and incompetence is one thing you can sue for. I suggest that some stimulous money be devoted to a special team of civil attorneys to pursue suit against every penny these bastards possess. A big, big, team to recover as much as possible from the gang of idiots. Let them sleep in cardboard boxes. I’ll bet that a not insignificant sum of money could be recovered.

  • stuartzechman

    formerlyjames
    .
    Joseph Cassano, guru of the London office
    .
    …is actually Joseph Cassano, of the disgraced junk bond criminal enterprise Drexel Burnham Lambert.
    .
    James Lieber makes the case for RICO-style fraud prosecutions in his must-read piece.

  • formerlyjames

    BTW, my proposal would be teams of lawyers on salary. Not the common class actions attorneys who take the booty and give each litigant a penny on the dollar.

  • formerlyjames

    Thanks, sz.

  • shepherdwong

    No Art, I think you’ve got it right. Trouble is, nothing that went before looks like it will be of much use going forward.

  • formerlyjames

    sz, I’ve only read the first page and am laughing and crying at the same time at the “Market Masters” title. I don’t know how you keep all of your sources straight, but it is to our benefit. Thanks again. Before this thread goes dead, I urge everybody to check sz’s link at 6:59 pm.

  • stuartzechman

    Let them sleep in cardboard boxes.
    .
    This is the reason why so many ordinary American are upset about this.
    .
    Everybody saw Randolph and Mortimer Duke lose all of their money and status in Trading Places, and we had the severity of their just rewards confirmed when we saw them again five years later huddled together in rags on skid row in Coming to America.
    .
    Everybody knows that charismatic, talented Eddie Murphy characters are supposed to prevail over the dishonest, establishment financier class when he finds out that they’ve been playing with our lives.
    .
    Everyone knows that the Eddie Murphy protagonist pays the old money guys back for their hubris by separating them from the the thing they love most in the world: their money.
    .
    How can Obama not put the world right? How can he let the Dukes keep everything? How can the bright Eddie Murphy character be suckered by the clubroom/boardroom guys? How can this be?
    .
    Everybody knows that the Dukes end up sleeping in cardboard boxes. Something must indeed be wrong with the world –something deeply, disturbingly wrong– if the Eddie Murphy character ends up being the one laughed at.

  • rustyreturns

    Here you go my “librul” loons. Feast your eyes on the thousands upon thousands of comments on this site.
    .
    http://theglennbeck912project.com/
    .
    “Take back America, starts now!”

  • Cliff

    Do you mean hundreds upon hundreds? Because the three articles I clicked on had 121, 27, and 150 comments.

  • shepherdwong

    “Take back America, starts now!”
    .
    Let’s make this easy. Make us an offer.

  • rustyreturns

    Spread The Word
    .
    Follow the discussion Login Comments (4,069)
    .
    Oh Cliffy the little liberal. Just one article has over 4 THOUSAND comments.

    I suppose you are to stupid to follow links other than those here at Swampyland.

  • http://realclearthinker.com/2009/03/23/budget-bull/ Budget Bull « Real Clear Thinker

    [...] at news numbers that confirm the Obama budget is irresponsible? So it was jarring news Friday, when the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) released its preliminary analysis of Obama’s plans for the nation. In one of the first non-partisan, independent reviews of his administration’s [...]

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