President Obama DisOBEYed? (Corrected below)

At the start of the year, Barack Obama’s team announced, to some significant fanfare, that the president wanted 40 percent of the stimulus package, or about $300 billion, to come in the form of tax cuts.

On Friday, the Congressional Budget Office scored the bill passed out of the House last week. It  contains only $182.3 billion of tax cuts, or about 22 percent of the total cost. A previous CBO review of the bill, when it was introduced days earlier in the House, had a slightly larger figure for tax cuts, $211.8 billion, or about 26 percent. A week before that, on January 15, the top tax writer in the House, Democratic Rep. Charlie Rangel, announced that the stimulus bill would include $275 billion in tax cuts. This is what mathematicians, accountants and your local dive bar bookie would call a trend: 300 –> 275 –> 212 –> 182. [Updated Correction (2/3): This trend is, it turns out, misleading, since the CBO, the White House, and Rangel all use different accounting procedures to estimate the size of the tax cut provisions in the bill. For further explanation of the differences, click here.]

Now the White House says correctly that the House-passed bill is just an imperfect first step, and the stimulus package will be changed as it goes through the Senate and then gets renegotiated in the conference committee. (White House spokesman Robert Gibbs is still non-committal about how much Obama will be involved in this process.) So it’s too early to know whether these latest figures — 22 percent, $182 billion — will have any meaning in the end.

Maybe they are just opening gambits by House Democratic appropriators like Rep. David Obey and tax writers like Rangel to show who is boss when it comes to the U.S. Treasury. Maybe they give Obama room to ride in on his bipartisan white horse in the final hours to make peace with tax cut-hungry Republicans. Or maybe, just maybe, they are the first clear sign of just how hard Obama is going to find his task of controlling his own party’s Congressional leadership, a problem that always dogged and eventually damaged President George W. Bush. We shall find out soon enough.

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  • wvng

    Perhaps its because tax cuts don’t deliver the kind of stimulus to the economy that are actually needed and they are choosing to err on the side of being effective versus, well, not being effective. Tax cuts deliver almost no economic jolt, aid to states generally the biggest multiplier (food stands ~ $1.73 for every federal $ spent), infrastructure ~$1.59 for ever fed $, numbers from Moodys).

  • pippapippa

    Or maybe, Michael, Obama isn’t stupid and knows that tax cuts are ineffective but are for some reason manna to Republicans, and so talked them up while signalling to the Dems in the House that he would be happy if they decreased them substantially.

    What, you think only Karl Rove knows how to play politics? You really should accept that Obama knows what he’s doing in DC, even if Karl Rove doesn’t advise him. (And maybe Obama will end his term NOT the most unpopular president ever, huh?)

    Considering that NO Republicans voted for the bill, I think maybe Obama would be right to let go of something he doesn’t believe in. That big a tax cut was only proposed to get a few Republican votes, and they didn’t go for it, so why bother to try? The American people voted for a Dem president and a Dem congress for a reason, because we tried the other way, and that way lay disaster.

  • formerlyjames

    Tax cuts = trickle down, the Repub mantra. Of course, if you ain’t got no income, no matter anyway. Eat cake. As far as I am concerned, the generic tax cut jibberish is just that. Political nonspeaksence.

  • http://www.inworldstudios.com jayackroyd

    This win-lose narrative is really tiresome. The real story here is the Republicans, unpatriotically rooting for failure, are refusing to participate in the legislative process in any substantive way.
    .
    Just as they rubberstamped every disastrous Bush policy, they are obstructing every Obama policy. Regardless of merit.

  • lwisne

    Or maybe…Obama really doesn’t believe in tax cuts, since he is a liberal Democrat and massive tax cuts are not really the style of his type. He will claim he wants them, let the House and Senate do the dirty work of whittling them down, and then when he’s given the bill say “Well, it seems those rascally Democrats took out the tax cuts I wanted soooo much. Darn.” Then he’ll sign a bill that he and the Congressional Dems are all happy with, while maintaining a pretense of bipartisanship.

  • http://www.124monkeys.com Sean DeCoursey forgot his password

    I’ve got it! The Republicans are the love children of Samuel Gompers and his ultimate creation – the UAW. They only see negotiations as win-lose and the only answer to how much tax cuts or corporate welfare they know is MORE! MORE! MORE!
    -
    Morons.

  • Cliff

    Maybe they give Obama room to ride in on his bipartisan white horse in the final hours to make peace with tax cut-hungry Republicans.
    .
    Or maybe you’re a f@cking moron, and nobody really gives a rat’s ass about what the Republicans want because they’re going to try to block everything anyway.

  • textee

    “On Friday, the Congressional Budget Office scored the bill passed out of the House last week. It contains only $182.3 billion of tax cuts, or about 22 percent of the total cost.”

    -

    Actually, much of those so-called “tax cuts” are, in fact, welfare payments to the 40% of households in the United States who pay NO federal income taxes. Obama confiscating property from Republican taxpayers to give to his voters (citizens and illegal aliens) who pay no federal income taxes ain’t a “tax cut”.

  • g_crush

    .
    MS: …task of controlling his own party’s Congressional leadership, a problem that always dogged and eventually damaged President George W. Bush.
    .
    ‘Always’, Michael? You could argue that was the case after the ’06 elections when the Congressional GOP fell into the minority – no harm in distancing themselves from Bush then…But you have to have some form of severe memory loss to forget about the six years prior to that.

  • jcapan

    As a bemused spectator (in a nation in even more dire fiscal straits), where in the hell is the sacrifice? Tax cuts, regardless of amt. or to whom, tax cuts!?
    ~
    And maybe I’m outside the US media bubble, but is Obama sufficiently selling this to the American people? I don’t care about Super Bowl parties with GOP invites (great PR leading to votes?), but is he explaining the disconnect between his inaugural call for sacrifice and this bill? Cuz I gotta tell ya, the time political and popular stomach for “sacrifice” is never going to get riper.

  • jcapan

    “outside the US media bubble”
    ~
    Mind you, this is said, sniffle, with extreme regret.

  • sacredh

    “…eventually damaged President George W. Bush”. Did you mean the eternally damaged President George W. Bush? Bush was damaged before he ever took the oath of office in 2001. Drawing a parallel between Obama’s 1st 10 days in office and the republicans repudiating their own president seems iffy at best. I think the congressional democrats know what horse their wagon is hitched to.

  • James, Los Angeles

    .
    jc,
    .
    no you are right. Neither Obama nor the congressional Dems are doing a very good job with message management. It’s pretty appalling. Ask Mr. Scherer, Time White House Correspondent, what a disorganized mess the Obama press office is. Or read this: Who’s Undercutting Obama? : CJR
    .
    And the media message management for the House and Senate is incompetent to non-existent. Meanwhile, Repub message management is effective and superb. It’s maddening.
    .
    Here’s what I heard from one reporter Wednesday in response to my question (and Josh’s question Talking Points Memo | Where are They?):

    Just taking today:
    .
    I called and emailed Brendan Daly [Nancy Pelosi's press flak] at 10 am today. Nothing. I have had maybe 15 email exchanges and phone calls with his counterpart on the GOP side.
    .
    Call or email GOP press aide, you get a response somewhere between 2 mins (best) and 3 hours (worst) but usually within 20 minutes. Call or email Dem press aide, you get a response somewhere between 15 mins (best) and never (worst) but usually not for at least three hours.
    .
    But here’s the basic outlook: You’re a reporter with an end-of-day deadline. You call up X# Republican spokespeople, including from the leadership, and X# Democratic spokespeople, including from the leadership. What happens?
    .
    GOP leadership calls and/or emails within two minutes. They call back if needed. Dem leadership press folks never call back.
    .
    After that, for the rank-and-file, or committee chairs, the best GOP time was about 2 minutes. On the Dem side, about 15 mins. The worst GOP time was three hours. The worst Dem time was “never.” Most GOPers called or emailed within about 20 minutes. On the Dem side, it was at least three hours.
    .
    Now, reporters are not entirely dependent on flaks to do their work. In some cases, the bosses of the people I was trying to reach came out and spoke in public, which answered my question. But if Team A gives me quick, substantive answers and Team B gives me silence, how do you think that affects the story?
    .
    On the Democratic side, leadership flaks won’t or can’t answer questions about policy (like whether they are for/against a given bill) rather than procedure (like what’s coming next on the floor).
    .
    I don’t get the same warnings from the GOP on the Hill. Boehner’s main press guy, Michael Steel, drops what he’s doing and calls me back usually within 15 mins. And is ALWAYS pleasant and knowledgeable.
    .
    But Hoyer’s people are pretty quick. So are Durbin’s. So it’s not that bad across the board.
    .

    .
    This is a straight reporter, not a hack.
    .
    So, what does that tell us?

  • http://phd9.blogspot.com Paul Dirks

    I’m still waiting for someone to explain to me why the Republicans are obsessed with tax cuts? Tax cuts or spending both inject money into the economy to the same degree. When done with spending, the money can be directed by a legislative process to where it can do the most good. Tax cuts on the other hand end up in the hands of people we hope might do something good with it but history teaches up won’t.
    .
    Never mind. I answered my own question…..
    .

  • iwasindependent

    This tells us that Micheal and the Village suffer from the same short term myopia that misjudged Obama’s campaign during the primary and the general election. Republicans are trying to play McCain’s “Win the news cycle” game that produces headlines but won few votes.
    By the time the stimulus bill is passed, signed, and executed, a lot of us will look back and see that the patient, careful, and diligent work that characterizes Obama’s leadership style overcame the short-sighted and cynical GnOP tactics. Again.

    Micheal, everyone wrote the “Dems in disarray” article last week. If you want to be unoriginal, at least have the decency to do it when everyone else is.

  • James, Los Angeles

    .
    I see this as a long term problem that the Dems need to deal with. This is the big time, and there is no excuse for this kind of disorganized amateurism. The Dems, both in the WH and Congress, should always have someone available to answer a questions from a reporter, period. It is the Democrats who suffer from myopia in letting the Republicans manage the mainstream news message. The Dems got punked on Wednesday.
    .

  • jcapan

    Thanks for posting that J-LA. Calls into ? GOP “scorn” for the “liberal” media. Don’t shoot the messenger, hack or otherwise.
    ~
    In the end, I’ll take the bill, but it could and should be better. Thus far I’m not seeing the muscular role the times demand of Obama–letting the likes of Boner or MS & co. massage a message that should be unquestionably his. Screw the radio address–he should be on the soapbox, on live TV, daily if necessary, fighting for a clean bill and the change he’s selling. Thus far I’m seeing a far too cautious president, resembling his transition persona–again, from my narrow window in Asia (and no P-luk, it’s not manufactured by Overton). I turn on CNN international and puke rice literally within moments. So far, too much William Jefferson Clinton and too little FDR.

  • iwasindependent

    I don’t disagree that they got punked, but when you look at Wed. terms of a Senate debate and passage, a joint committee negotiation, and a final vote that will take place in the next 2-3 weeks (with cash-strapped GOP governors chiming in as well), and a signing with public fanfare, it might not look like a big deal.

    Can the stimulus still be bipartisan with the support of the governors and not the Repub members of Congress?

    All I’m saying is that process is more important than message right now.

  • jcapan

    iwasindy:
    ~
    I want to look at it that way, but Obama has to proactively counter the media inclination to turn on the saints they’ve built up. God knows they’re gnashing their teeth. His popularity and political capital are fleeting commodities–he shouldn’t allow things to settle into their comfortable slots, including his own. Midterm elections are right around the corner. In other words, don’t go prevent with a lead you overestimate. And what worked in a campaign against deeply flawed candidates might not work while in office, in times of nearly unprecedented freefall.

  • formerlyjames

    Where did all that money the theives stole go (not all Repubs, mind you)? Did it evaporate? Where is it? Just a random thought I had while enjoying the posts.

  • James, Los Angeles

    .
    All I’m saying is that the message is ALWAYS important. The Democrats are always going to get punked until they can compete with the GOP on media message management.
    .
    I think it’s a mistake to think that competent media message management should somehow be a secondary strategy. A reporter who calls up wanting a Dem side message to include in his/her story ought to be cheerfully accommodated in a timely manner, period. How frickin hard is that? Real hard, apparently.
    .
    Thursday, the message that got out was that Obama “failed.” Okay? The bill lost handily, the Repubs boycotted and obstructed, but Obama’s efforts at bipartisanship “failed.” That is catastrophic messaging on the Dem side. That’s what I mean, they got punked. The GOP won that round.
    .
    The GOP will win in the Senate too, unless the Dems get their sh!t together. Remember “Harry Reid failed to get 60 votes” versus “The Republicans filibustered”? THAT’S media message management, my friend. It isn’t trivial.
    .
    .

  • James, Los Angeles

    “passed handily”

  • plukasiak

    no you are right. Neither Obama nor the congressional Dems are doing a very good job with message management. It’s pretty appalling.
    _
    that’s because Team Obama doesn’t know what its doing, and the Dem Congressional leadership doesn’t want to undercut Team Obama.
    _
    Ultimately, the biggest problems are with the word “stimulus”, and Obama’s obsession with creating his “post-partisan” image. Talking about a “stimulus” includes the necessary assumption that we are just experience a cyclical downturn, rather than an economic meltdown whose origins lie in fundamental, structural flaws of the financial system.
    _
    And Obama’s obsession with creating the illusion that he can “change how Washington works” makes it impossible to create an effective message — we’re looking at an economic crisis that requires swift and decisive actions, and Obama is focussing on “process”. Maybe if Obama had been elected to succeed Clinton, worrying about “process” would not be so problematic. But Obama came into office after eight disasterous years of Bush, and faces a host of extremely complex, and absolutely critical, issues — “changing the way washington works” should be very low on the list of priorities right now, but it seems to be what Obama cares about most.

  • Aaron

    Or perhaps Nate Silver was right three weeks ago: Barack Obama’s plan all along was to start out with a mediocre bill and make it better.
    .
    See how he tried to work with House Republicans? Apparently conservatives love Rush more than they love America.

  • James, Los Angeles

    .
    My concerns about this go beyond the Obama “post-partisan” thing, pluk. I’m talking that the Dems in Congress are incompetent at message management and it is an ongoing problem and hasn’t gotten any better. How frickin hard is it to hire flaks that can call a reporter back and answer his/her question? As it is, the Dem leadership ends up getting punked by the GOP on every issue. I’ve been trying to pin down exactly why that is, and what I posted above is one big reason, and one big reason that can be improved.
    .

  • plukasiak

    James —
    I think that the Dem leadership problem lies in the lack of a cohenrent message originating from the White House — and the eagerness of the media to create & exploit conflict (at the urging of GOP operatives) between Congressional Dems and the White House.
    _
    Obama is simply not providing the leadership on questions of substance — and when you ad the general spinelessness of Reid and Pelosi to Obama’s failure to provide substantive direction, and the desire of Democrats in Congress to support Obama, questions wind up not getting answered because no one knows what the answer is supposed to be.

  • Dee in Columbia MD

    Hey Plukasiak — I bet you were one of those second guessing hand wringers that were constantly telling Obama what he should do. If this man and his team had proved anything is that they know what they are doing. Why don’t you wait and see — my goodness he’s been in office exactly 10 days and you’ve already decided he’s inept. Maybe the reason process is important is because there are a lot of things to do to right this ship and he’s thinking longer term and to be successful in the long run he can’t lose the Democratic majority in 2010 — ask Clinton what happened to him in 1994 and may be you might get it.
    .
    But them may be not because I’m guessing you have a problem with anyone who doesn’t think exactly like you do right.

  • James, Los Angeles

    .
    pluk,
    .
    I don’t disagree with your assessment. But the problem of Dem message management goes way beyond Obama. It goes back years and years. Put Obama aside. You say the “eagerness of the media to create and exploit conflict.” Yes. The reporter’s job is to write stuff that will attract eyeballs. Their bosses like that. That’s their job. The Dems traditionally see the media as arbiters of truth. Reporters aren’t interested in being arbiters of truth. They aren’t going to *be* arbiters of truth. They are interested in writing stuff, meeting their deadlines so their boss is happy. That’s just reality. The GOP has figured that out, and accommodates them accordingly. The Dems haven’t figured that out yet. Instead, they stay on their high horse about what they perceive reporters *should* be doing, instead of recognizing reality and developing strategies to deal with it. That’s why they get punked. Every. Single. Time.

  • jcapan

    Though his views stray towards grudge at times, I tend to agree with P-luk. Thus far I’m seeing far more posturing than substance from the WH, and 10 days or nay, mandates evaporate in dog years. Says to himself, “what?” I have no problem with the Super Bowl party or charming the idolators (Klein and co), but as long as behind the scenes he’s knifing opposition in the throat.
    ~
    I agree that the party writ large has not had a clear message for decades. Nor one that they’ve been able to unapologetically espouse. Thus the perception of spinelessness, not to mention the craven submissiveness to Bush & co. And I might add that Obama’s cool as the other side of the pillow persona would be fine and dandy if Jim Webb were running the senate or Howard Dean congress, in other words, folks unafraid to say what they think and ready & willing to bash someone’s teeth in when necessary. Though dems may have cringed at Cheney’s f-bomb to Leahy, I prefer to know where you and my leaders stand. And it shows Americans that you care passionately about what you’re advocating, if they can even conceive what that is. In other words, it’s OK to be vague and presidential if your party’s leadership weren’t so hacktacular.

  • Dee in Columbia MD

    I just find it amazing how quickly its been forgotten how Dems were wringing their hands about Obama is not fighting hard enough, he’s not hitting back, he’s not doing this, he’s not doing that etc. etc. etc. This man pulled off the biggest upset in the history of upsets by having a plan and sticking to his game plan no matter what the other side did. At most there were a few minor tactical adjustments, but no strategy changes that were big enough to be classified as playing the other teams game. Now you want him to change the game. Yes, the other side is very good at winning the daily news cycle — but Obama plays the long game. He did so during the campaign and he’s doing so now. and you’ll are giving yourselves an ulcer for no reason at all.

  • iwasindependent

    “Though dems may have cringed at Cheney’s f-bomb to Leahy, I prefer to know where you and my leaders stand. And it shows Americans that you care passionately about what you’re advocating, if they can even conceive what that is. In other words, it’s OK to be vague and presidential if your party’s leadership weren’t so hacktacular.”

    j, the problem with your assessment there is that we’ve had leaders who match that description, and have failed epically in providing competent government. I want everyone who has a problem with process to consider this:
    1. Obama has already helped the people of Kentucky with their weather issues. “They really hit the ground running,” said Steve Beshear, interviewed by CNN. “They’re working very hard to get all the equipment and supplies here that we need.”
    2. Congress passed the equal pay law and the Obama signed it Thurs.
    3. SCHIP will probably be signed next week.
    4. Holder will be confirmed and DoJ will get the makeover it needs.

    All these are infinitely more important than message management. The latter is a tired game that won’t feed, clothe, or employ those affected by the recession.

  • iwasindependent

    what dee said…

  • James, Los Angeles

    .
    Perhaps you didn’t live through the Clinton years. Read Blumenthal’s The Clinton Wars to understand why this message incompetence is worrisome. Or, this: Balloon Juice » Blog Archive » DeBushification
    It isn’t a trivial thing.
    .
    if Jim Webb were running the senate or Howard Dean congress
    .
    According to reporters I talk to, Howard Dean and the DNC had a message machine comparable to the RNC. Webb had a GREAT campaign message machine. Just excellent. And he is still good. I’ll have to ask about how his Senate office operates. But unfortunately the DNC message machine has now probably gone the way of the 50-state strategy.
    .
    Where I see that the Dems have been incompetent with their message is that people out in the real world don’t really understand what’s in the R&R package. They think it’s about condoms and STDs and wasteful pork. It’s losing support. That’s the GOP message that got out, not the Dem message. That is frank, outright proof of message incompetence.
    .

  • Cliff

    James LA – I didn’t know that about Congressional Dems. That’s pretty infuriating. You’d think they would learn something over eight years.
    .
    But over all, I’m with iwasindependent and Dee. We’ve seen Obama is a cautious, painstaking man. I have no problem, at this point, with giving him some time to take stock of the opposition.
    .
    If he still fails to perform after some more reasonable period, like a month or so, then I’ll start complaining.

  • James, Los Angeles

    .
    How about this:
    .

    Meet the Press tomorrow:
    .
    NBC Meet the Press–The stimulus package; financial bailout; the economy: Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison (R-Texas); Sen. John F. Kerry (D-Mass.); Erin Burnett (“Street Signs,” “Squawk on the Street”); Steve Forbes, Forbes magazine; Mark Zandi, Moodys. Moderator: David Gregory.
    .
    Mark Zandi, former McCain adviser. Steve Forbes, former Republican candidate for president and basic conservative crazy person. Erin Burnett, of unknown political affiliation (to me) but was last seen fluffing Rush Limbaugh and generally expresses such viewpoints. John Kerry, Democrat. Kay Bailey Hutchison, Republican.

    Source: Atrios
    Four Republicans, one Democrat, to talk about the “Stimulus” bill, on the most-watched Sunday news show. Where are the Dems on this? They shouldn’t be waiting around to be asked.

  • iwasindependent

    “Where I see that the Dems have been incompetent with their message is that people out in the real world don’t really understand what’s in the R&R package.”

    People will understand better as they continue to lose jobs, see schools close, and don’t get their refund checks (like in CA). They will realize that tax cuts don’t mean squat if you don’t have a job to pay taxes, and that the Repubs are offering nothing, absolutely nothing to the solution. That is the other side of the coin with their message this week. I am guessing the word “obstruction” will come up plenty during tomorrow’s Sunday shows.

  • James, Los Angeles

    .
    Cliff,
    .
    This is the big time. Part of being in politics on the national scene is to understand how the media works, and to have a competent media management strategy. The national media can make or break your agenda. It can frame a politician, a president, as an incompetent, as a loser. It can distract from the agenda you set to deal with faux scandals, ginned-up scandals. Sure, let’s give Obama some time, let’s give Gibbs some time to get their sh!t together, but there is no excuse for incompetent message management by the Democratic Congressional leadership.
    .
    I can tell you one thing though, the White House Reporters aren’t ready to give Gibbs much more time. His shop is selectively leaking stuff and the TV people and other news orgs are getting resentful. That doesn’t bode well.
    .

  • jcapan

    Dee & I-was,
    ~
    I hope you’re both right, and at times I agree. However, in the end, I don’t think O can transcend timeless forces that tear asunder the purest of ambitions. New days might dawn, but darkness falls in short order. Unlike some, I think his inner agenda is solid and not self-serving.
    ~
    Ultimately, healthy skepticism is a good thing–it’s what distinguishes us from the dittoheads on the right.
    ~
    “That’s the GOP message that got out, not the Dem message. That is frank, outright proof of message incompetence.”
    ~
    And even discounting the stenography going on in the dying media, that is still nothing short of astonishing. Who are the GOP stars winning this message war? Boner, McConnell!? How is that possible with our so-called media darling in office for 10 days?
    ~
    OK, dammit, it’s 10:30am on a Sun(ny)day–time to get out and enjoy it. Cheers

  • James, Los Angeles

    .
    People will understand better as they continue to lose jobs, see schools close, and don’t get their refund checks (like in CA). They will realize that tax cuts don’t mean squat if you don’t have a job to pay taxes, and that the Repubs are offering nothing, absolutely nothing to the solution.
    .
    You are very naive if you really believe that all of a sudden people are going to “understand better.” And by that time, the whole thing will be moot. The idea behind the “stimulus” plan is to *prevent* those dire consequences. Okay?
    .
    I repeat: THEY ARE ONLY HEARING THE REPUBLICAN MESSAGE.
    .

  • James, Los Angeles

    And even discounting the stenography going on in the dying media,
    .
    jc — I just wrote a whole long post detailing *one* reason why there is “stenography.” One reason that *we can do something about.*
    .
    Enjoy the day out!
    .

  • Art Pepper

    Michael, you already demonstrated during the campaign that economics is not your strong suit.

  • iwasindependent

    James,

    Cynicism, naiveté, optimism, pessimism, give labels to whatever you want, but there’s a reality that’s hitting people like a 2 by 4, and it’s getting uglier with every layoff announcement and home foreclosure. People will think, decide, and act by this reality, not by manufactured opinion and hack reporting by the likes of Micheal.
    .
    If 2008 has taught us anything, it’s that the game has changed. I’m off to do some grading, but I’ll be watching tomorrow morning and we’ll see where things go.
    .

  • sacredh

    I rip on the relublicans all the time because they’re out of touch, obstructionists, elitists, slaves to big business, they have lousy leaders and some of their picks to run their show are absurdist clowns. Having said that, why the hell is Harry Reid still the majority leader? He’s incompetent, he’s better at fighting his own party than fighting the republicans and he’s doing a p!ss poor job of getting the democrats’ message out. Reading some of the previous posts infuriates me, not because they’re wrong, but because they’re right. I’m almost in awe of Obama’s political skills, but he can’t get the job done on his own. The media can be manipulated into covering what you want covered, sometimes for as little as coffee and donuts, so why aren’t they doing it? Boehner should have been torn to shreds by now and yet he’s dominating news cycles. I don’t know what kind of jobs the posters on here have, but if we can see this is going on and understand the implications, how is it possible that the people getting paid for it can’t?

  • stuartzechman

    This is an interesting discussion, folks; I’m enjoying it greatly.

  • James, Los Angeles

    .
    Jay-sus. WTF??!!! I do not know why what I had to say was remotely controversial to this crowd. I posted excerpts of an email from a straight reporter telling me that the Congressional Dems have a flawed-to-nonexistent message machine. The reporter gave concrete examples with time estimates that I thought was interesting and informative. Then I suggested that maybe the Dems ought to get their sh!t together and improve their message management.
    .
    Then people get on their high horse and start up with a ration of cr@p like it’s a stupid thing to suggest that the Dems could do better message management. It’s like a blue LGF here sometimes.
    .

  • jcapan

    Checking in before dinner at the in-laws–okonomiyaki and beer. I love these people.
    ~
    J in LA–I don’t see much of a hornets’ nest really–Dee and i-was disagree, and relatively tamely at that. Cliff 1/2 agrees with you, I’m on the same page, and P-luk wants to impeach Obama or at least form a merry band of Trotskyites, which is downright understandable (I’m up for heading a Kobe-cell). Anyway, what you had to offer above was quite helpful–democrats who do nothing but bemoan the media and republicans, seeing nothing wrong with their own house, well, they’re part of the problem too. Such rigid party loyalty, not daring to utter heresies, is, well, too republican for my tastes. If more democrats applied pressure to their crappy congressional leadership, as well as Obama, perhaps we’d have a more progressive party.
    ~
    And what pray-tell, is LGF?

  • Art Pepper

    James – I’m not at all surprised the Dems suck at message management. They’ve been sucking at it for 8 years, and in Congress it’s a lot of the same players. But it was interesting to read about a specific way in which they fail. I mean, isn’t this one of the basic jobs in politics? Just because you have the better product, doesn’t mean the product will sell itself.
    -
    I’m cautiously optimistic. The bill did pass, and I think the House Republicans came out looking pretty bad to anyone except the true believers.

  • g_crush

    .
    jcapan: And what pray-tell, is LGF?
    .
    Little Green footballs is a hard core right-whinge nut factory and echo chamber…the comparison to this site is a real stretch on James’ part.
    .
    plukasiak: ..that’s because Team Obama doesn’t know what its doing..
    .
    I look forward to the day that you finally get over Hillary Clinton’s loss to Obama in the Dem primary, pluk.

  • James, Los Angeles

    .
    Well, two issues. One, the Congressional Dems and the WH — there is no excuse not to have a professional staff with the skills and knowledge to manage and communicate one’s message to the professional media. That is actually the issue I was trying to address. The political Dems have been incompetent and negligent for years about media management, and the GOP runs circles around them. My first post with the email was talking about that. You should be able to see that this particular reporter, who is not a hack, is frustrated by the lack of response from the Dem leadership.
    .
    Second, people in the left blogosphere are constantly on their high horse about the mainstream media, how they ought to “do their job”, stenography, fluffing, all that stuff. Okay I agree they’ve done a bad job. I was pointing out ONE REASON that “they” do a bad job — that the Dems often don’t even bother to call them back. That reason is something that can be rectified. Pressure should be brought to bear on the Congressional Dems and the WH to learn a few things from the very effective GOP model of message management.
    .
    This shouldn’t be heresy. It is common sense. It IS IMPORTANT to communicate one’s message in a competent way, and *most people* get their news and information from the mainstream media, particularly TV. Instead of glib, blanket condemnations and garment-rendings about the injustice of it all — which is tired and useless and no strategy at all — here is one area where *something can be done* to improve the situation.
    .
    Meh.
    .
    jc — LGF=Little Green Footballs, a radical rightwing blog in the far reaches of wingnuttia. It’s a big echo chamber of opinionated rightwing loonies far removed from reality. I think they are on the birth certificate thing these days.

  • James, Los Angeles

    .
    grape,
    well perhaps I overstated just a tad. Cheers.
    .

  • g_crush

    .
    ..well perhaps I overstated just a tad. Cheers.
    .
    (laughing) Well, maybe not that much of an overstatement…We both got the description of LGF pretty much spot-on, ‘tho…
    .
    And, yes, even though Obama runs a pretty tight ship, overall the Dems’ ability to control the narrative just downright sucks. How else can anyone explain the idea of “Obama fails at partisanship” permeating the mediasphere as the Congressional Repubs decide to sit on their hands while the economy tanks.

  • 53_3

    MS:
    .
    Do you suppose, after the “goose egg” that was “dropped in our presidents’ lap” a few days ago, Obama has decided that he’s just gonna back the car up, and run over the Republickers instead of trying to work with them?
    .
    I would…

  • James, Los Angeles

    grape,
    .
    Interesting that the article I linked to by David Cay Johnson here, on the early problems with the WH Press Office was picked up by Kevin Drum here Kevin Drum – Mother Jones Blog: Picking Up. Johnson, one of the good guys, great journo and author of Free Lunch, was answering his critics in the comment stream. He was getting battered by the same nonsensical moralizing and high-horseism there that I was bemoaning here. It’s an interesting thread. And it’s an important issue.
    .
    You are *exactly* right about that “Obama fails at bipartisanship” being the dominant theme after the vote. That’s precisely why I had the conversation with the journo.
    .

  • plukasiak

    According to reporters I talk to, Howard Dean and the DNC had a message machine comparable to the RNC. Webb had a GREAT campaign message machine. Just excellent. And he is still good. I’ll have to ask about how his Senate office operates. But unfortunately the DNC message machine has now probably gone the way of the 50-state strategy.
    _
    Well, Howard Dean had it easy — he had understood how messaging worked, and had a message (Democrats good, Republicans bad) that was easy to communicate, and adaptable to all situations.
    _
    But I agree with your suspicion that the DNC message machine is less effective — with Obama pushing his “post-partisan” schtick, the DNC no longer has its simple message to convey…
    _
    As for the failure of the Dems congressional leadership — that’s an old story. The GOP prioritizes winning the “hearts and minds” of Americans in a way that benefits the GOP overall; Dems are in the business of incumbent protection, and when you’re more worried about protecting incumbents than sending a clear message, its impossible to come up with something coherent.
    _
    Where I see that the Dems have been incompetent with their message is that people out in the real world don’t really understand what’s in the R&R package. They think it’s about condoms and STDs and wasteful pork. It’s losing support. That’s the GOP message that got out, not the Dem message. That is frank, outright proof of message incompetence.
    _
    Again, one has to place blame for this on Obama, who has emphasized how “bipartisan” he’s being, and not paying much attention to arguing that his program is necessary and effective.
    _
    Obama’s emphasis on his “change” image is actually counter-productive; indeed I’d suggest that a lot of the loss of support for the “recovery” bill is based on an intrinsic understanding that the first priority isn’t ‘fixing the economy’, its achieving compromise. People understand intrinsically that compromise for its own sake is a bad idea — and it becomes much easier to question the bill’s provisions when they are seen not as doing the right thing, but doing what will get the most “bipartisan” support.
    _
    As I said before, the “stimulus” message is the wrong one to begin with — Obama should have been emphasizing “stability” and “recovery” — and been talking about the need for immediate job creation because the necessary regulatory reform and restructuring of the financial system will take some time.
    _
    One final note — someone talked about giving Obama time to “size up the opposition.” B*llsh!t — this is an admission that Obama doesn’t really belong in the White House, because he should have “hit the ground running”. Instead, we’ve got someone whose philosophy is “win first, worry about governing later.”

  • James, Los Angeles

    pluk,
    .
    You are precisely right, IMHO, about Dean. He understood the messaging and the message management. It HAS to be simple and powerful to be effective. But even beyond that, it has to be RESPONSIVE. Aggressively responsive, both positive and negative. So he had good powerful messages, BUT he got it out there, he was responsive to the media, AND he did aggressive pushback when necessary. The Congressional Dems do NONE of that, particularly Reid’s office and Pelosi’s office.
    .
    I also agree that the BOWH should have been ready to hit the ground running with respect to the press office. I am NOT ready to give them a pass on that, having lived through the Clinton years. There is no excuse for not having professional staff hired and ready to roll in the press office.
    .

  • plukasiak

    AND he did aggressive pushback when necessary. The Congressional Dems do NONE of that, particularly Reid’s office and Pelosi’s office.
    _
    “pushback” is key in effective messaging, but its virtually impossible when the other side is being “partisan” and you’re worried about appearing “bi-partisan.”
    _
    but I again want to emphasize that the success of the GOP rested upon it standing for something, and framing what it stood for in simple, easily understood terms. Democrats don’t really stand for anything — they’ll recruit and support anyone who has their own (or can raise) campaign cash and is willing to run with a “D” next to their name (see Shuler, Heath).
    _
    as for the problems with the press office — Obama’s campaign had a very effective press office, in terms of getting out their message. The problem is that campaign messaging and governing messaging are two different things; in a campaign, you can get away with meaningless mantras like “change”, but when you’re actually governing, its about getting stuff done.
    _
    IMHO, the problem with the press office is the change/bipartisan “message” that Obama is emphasizing that works on the campaign trail, but lacks the kind of real substance that you need to effectively govern. In other words, the problem appears to be that Obama believes his own press clippings — and thought that his campaign slogans were all he needed to govern.

  • James, Los Angeles

    Pushback is indeed crucial. And it doesn’t need to be a nasty exchange. I asked one reporter about that. He told me that when the GOP doesn’t like a piece, they will sometimes go through it line by line with the reporter. Of course, they CAN be nasty about it too, but there is more to it than that. Add to that how “helpful” they can be, and it is little wonder that the Dems are always left in the dirt. They don’t have a clue. Apparently Dean did, though. Helpful when possible, nasty when necessary. My reporter source said s/he couldn’t remember the last time a Dem did any of that kind of pushback, though occasionally they call and scream about stuff.
    .
    I also agree that the BOWH apparently hasn’t yet successfully transitioned their press office from campaign to public governance.
    .

  • plukasiak

    James –
    While I fully agree with your discussion pushback against the media, I was talking about the necessity of pushback against the GOP.
    _
    Obama’s “bi-partisan” emphasis makes it difficult, if not impossible, for pushback against GOP to happen by Congressional Democrats, because if the pushback is to be effective, it will violate the whole “bi-partisan” spirit that Obama has been placing such high priority on.
    _
    Not that I think that Pelosi and Reid would be doing an adequate job of pushback on their own — they still are primarily in the incumbent protection business. But were the White House providing leadership in pushing back against a GOP, I think that Pelosi and Reid would be following Obama’s lead right now.
    _
    (I also think that Obama made a huge mistake in pursuing “pre-emptive bipartisanship” by including massive tax cuts as a sop to the GOP well before he needed to. All you need to do is read any pundit on Obama’s efforts to compromise with the GOP; the tax cut isn’t even mentioned, and instead what they write about is the National Mall, and family planning kind of stuff.)

  • James, Los Angeles

    pluk.
    .
    well that “bi-partisan” cr@p goes well beyond just this administration. And I certainly agree about the necessity of pushback against the GOP. It’s been a long-term problem and I agree that part-to-much of it is that the Dems are overly comfortable with their incumbency. There are a number of elements to the corruption of political culture in DC. It’s a complex problem. I’ve been trying to tease out some of those elements and look for facets of the overall problem that could possibly be addressed. I don’t see a solution to that comfort with incumbency, or solutions to many of the complex elements, without some kind of media reform. So I have been trying to understand the nuts and bolts of the news business and look at operational barriers to good reporting. It just seems like such an obvious and relatively straightforward — I don’t want to call it a solution because it isn’t — improvement? to lobby for more of the GOP model of media message management. You know, like returning a reporter’s calls? What a concept! I just can’t understand why I’ve gotten such a load of high-horse bullcr@p over that fairly obvious observation from some of these commenters. (Well, yes I do understand. But never mind.)
    .
    I was unhappy with the capitulation to the GOP and their demand for tax cuts as well. Unhappy, but not surprised.

  • yutsano

    Checking in before dinner at the in-laws–okonomiyaki and beer. I love these people.
    -
    Okonomiyaki…*drool*
    -
    But seriously, why are y’all jumping all over James-LA? The Dems couldn’t get their message out if they bought every single billboard in America and could write their messages for free inperpetuity. That is a MANAGEMENT failure, and that means the top leaders have to go. That and Reid makes me cringe every time I see him on TV. If the Senate weren’t so damn cozy he should have been ousted at the start of this session. *Sigh*

  • http://swampland.blogs.time.com/2009/02/03/obama-cbo-apples-oranges/ Swampland – TIME.com » Blog Archive Obama, CBO, Apples, Oranges «

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