Is This A Depression?

I read that hiring lags behind a recovery-employers wanting to be sure that the recovery is real-and if that is true we are in a heap of trouble for the next 12-18-24 months.
Economy doesn’t equal the Dow the Economy DOES equal jobs.
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P.S. nice job on Washington Week last night KT

KT here–

Thanks, P-NNTO. I’m trying to follow sgwhite’s advice, and not say “you know” so much.

I can’t seem to remember the recession of 1980 when unemployment was 10% (maybe because I had a real, salaried job. sigh). But there seems to be so much more fear in the news with this recession. This feels much scarier (to me personally because I don’t have a reliable paycheck) but also because of 24/7 cable coverage and the internets. It seems like Paulson et al. held off telling us how dire the situation was until the last possible moment, precisely to avoid a chicken little stampede. Cable absolutely thrives on bad news, and so there’s a continual loop of reinforcement. Maybe Obama recognizes that by dribbling out his cabinet he gives the MSM something else to talk about.
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That said, the cable shows have not been covering the changes in teevee that are already evident. The poor weather channel, which merged with NBC, has lost Dave Schwartz, Cheryl Lemke, and Eboni Dion, who have been on for years. Their great program Forecast Earth is gone as of this week. CNN looped endless reruns of their Heroes program, and we’re in for whole weekends of doc block on MSNBC, I can tell.
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The fundamentals of the economy are not strong, but fear is clearly a large factor.
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Ditto on the nice job on WWIR (if you didn’t get my HT on last night’s thread)
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I’m gone for the day. will check in later. (And I’ll actually read your two links before I comment next)

Kathy I wonder if part of the elevated angst is that this seems to be touching everything,
My daily paper-Minneapolis Star Tribune- is perhaps 6 weeks from bankruptcy, stores and restaurants are closing. The “Big Three” going through their mess and the trickle down to the dealerships.
The misery seems more spread out, with the exception of the healthcare industry. Hmmm I wonder if there is a connection?
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KT – ha on the “you know” Speaking for myself that would be the least of my issues before a camera. Think Broadcast News

It’s bad all right. We were told 36 staff were being let go next Friday; which leaves us with 52 people. Contracts are drying up; and the 36 were told they will be first in if a current contract will be renewed (and that doesn’t look hopeful). At home: all discretionary spending stopped: no eating out, unnecessary travel,theatre, etc. Just hoping I will hang on to my job: just barely.

[...] More here: Is This A Depression? [...]

Kathy I wonder if part of the elevated angst is that this seems to be touching everything
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or perhaps, its because its finally “touching” so many Villagers in the media.

For the past seven years, the Village ignored the signs that this economy was going down the toilet, and that “economic growth” was an illusion. While average americans saw their real wages decreasing, or at best, remaining stagnant, the media elite (as part of the overall elite) were not only doing very well in terms of income, but their net worth was skyrocketing thanks to the asset bubble.

We’re not yet in a depression, but one is inevitable — and this one is likely to be as bad, if not worse, than the one in the 1930s, because this won’t just be about a shrinking economy, but in a few years will be about hyperinflation in a shrinking economy as the entire house of cards collapses. Its not as if we don’t have enough historic examples of what happens when governments try to solve economic problems by printing more money — and the fact that this government is printing money to sustain a financial system that is already based on inflated assets merely exacerbates the problem.

Nobody really wants to talk about what is really happening in the economy — its all about angst (its a recession if your neighbor loses his job, a depression when you lose your job), and what is happening to the 401k’s of the village media elite.

pluk – thanks for the wisp of hope./snark At least we’ll have a guy in office pretty soon who understands what levers to push, but we really need him there now. From Daily KOS: “In this morning’s weekly address, President-Elect Obama promised to roll out the biggest investment in public infrastructure since the federal highway system of the 1950′s was undertaken.”

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KT, did you ever get around to burying your money in that coffee can?

KT, do you think the Senate repugs will have a 40 vote block for economic stimuli plans? We had a discussion here the other night about the “neo-Hooverites” that Josh, Yglesias and Benen have been describing. Hwere’s Josh:
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I’m listening to one-time DC celeb Fred Thompson on Neil Cavuto’s show on Fox talking about the virtues of economic retrenchment as opposed to fiscal stimulus as a way to deal with the faltering US economy. I’m hearing this here and there from a few Republicans. But I’m curious how much this is coalescing into an opposition position.
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And Benen suggested a series of reasons why they might take this route, includign this one:
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* The Strategic Explanation: A TPM reader noted that Republicans may oppose sensible economic policies in order to undermine Democrats now that the party is in the majority. "Given the new demographic realities of the country, Obama’s presidency must be a failure if Republicans are to ever emerge from the political wilderness," JF writes. "The more they obstruct, the more Obama and Congessional Democrats will be forced to water down economic policy. And a watered-down policy just won’t cut it at this moment in history. This is sabotage, pure and simple."
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Jay and I talked that one over a bit the other night, and came to the conclusion that such a course would be consistent with the “power before country” approach of the GOP in recent years. But are there enough of them willing to take that path to make a difference. And, if there are, will Reid force actual filibusters.

I miss preview.

“Lies, damned lies and statistics.” Beyond a certain point, talk of a depression versus a recession is nothing more than semantics. With “true unemployment” at around 12-13% rather than the current popularly accepted “offical government approved statistical unemployment” at 6.7%, we are screwed either way.

There are way too many people headed for the streets, going hungry and desperate in more ways than one, but you don’t see that on the teevee enough yet to know that it is true.

Lets put it this way.
If you still have your job. It’s a recession. If your currently unemnployed. Its a depression.
Your results may vary.

Re: Washington Week. Love it when Doyle McManus goes OFF THE HOOK with one of his patented “Special Comment” raves.

donovong, true, But, then, as a friend just told me, “we all might consider that in an economy that’s driven 70% by consumers, incessant media chatter about the tanking economy might be having the effect of — wait for it — tanking the economy. BASIC feedback theory…”

in an economy that’s driven 70% by consumers
chatter about the tanking economy might be having the effect of
tanking the economy

I think it’s important to differentiate between whether that consumer spending is coming from income or borrowing. The debt industry remains pretty much the driving force behind all the mahem we’re currently experiencing.

PD, excellent point. I suppose it is a bad thing that much of “our” spending is of money “we” don’t actually have.
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Nice article in the Times about North Dakota, which is doing pretty well right now: North Dakota’s cheery circumstance — which economic analysts are quick to warn is showing clear signs that it, too, may be in jeopardy — can be explained by an odd collection of factors: a recent surge in oil production that catapulted the state to fifth-largest producer in the nation; a mostly strong year for farmers (agriculture is the state’s biggest business); and a conservative, steady, never-fancy culture that has nurtured fewer sudden booms of wealth like those seen elsewhere
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I appreciate the description of a “conservative, steady, never-fancy culture” that aligns well with Obama’s rhetoric about living within our means. I have no doubt that novel concept will be a feature in his speeches.

I would like reporters, especially business reporters do apples to apples comparisons on jobs. Since Clinton fudged the numbers in 1994, comparing today’s unemployment to historical amounts pre 1994 using different assumptions doesn’t give us a good history.
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The one statistic I saw yesterday that was telling was that this is the lowest amount of employment ever for 16 and older males for whatever reason. I think this is going to be a depression btw. Not as big as the great depression but nasty. You can call it a crappy recession, or a minor depression but it will be semantics.

“we all might consider that in an economy that’s driven 70% by consumers, incessant media chatter about the tanking economy might be having the effect of — wait for it — tanking the economy…

I’m sure that doesn’t help, but I think a bigger factor in tanking an economy that’s driven 70% by consumers is when half of those consumers don’t have any money. Consider the following stat: in 1998, the wealthiest 10% of Americans owned 70% of the nation’s wealth, while the poorest 40% owned 2/10ths of 1%. That was 10 years ago – can you think of any Bush administration policies that were intended to alleviate, rather than exacerbate, that very fundamental problem? To the contrary, the divide is even larger now, thanks to lower income and estate taxes on that 10% over the past 8 years. Meanwhile, as productivity rose by 20% from 2000 through 2007, the workers responsible for those gains got nothing other than a 300% increase in gasoline prices, 100% increase in home heating and health insurance costs, 50% increase in food costs…a lot of people went into debt just to cover basic living expenses, because they didn’t have any “extra money” to begin with. And now, we’re trying to fix the mess by making money available to loan? People in debt up to their eyebrows can’t borrow more money and pay it back; it’s just asking for a repeat of the current situation. They need higher wages, period. The Richie-Riches are at some point going to have to accept that they can either have a 20% ROI or a functioning economy with a 5% – 10% ROI – they cannot have both. That’s how we got into this mess to begin with – which is a much longer post I won’t go into unless asked. I’ll just sum it up here with the poker game analogy – when one guy has all the chips, the only way to keep the game going a little longer is for him to loan some of his chips to the other players. Once they lose those chips too, it’s game over. That’s where we are right now.

These are historic times, folks. These are Everything You Thought You Knew Was Wrong Times for a lot of people, Alan Greenspan being a prime example.

Since we seem to be without an economic base right now, that Green Economy thing might actually have a chance to take hold.

As more and more people lose their jobs and benefits, UHC is going to become more and more attractive to the masses, regardless of right wing talking points and Andrew Sullivan.

I’ve been in depression mode for a while now. I garden, line-dry clothes (even in winter), bake all our bread, drive seldom, scooter often, etc. And as a long time thrift shopper, I’m sad to say the pickings are slimmer and there are lots of very nice cars in the lots.

trifecta: “I would like reporters, especially business reporters do apples to apples comparisons on jobs.”
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I’ll second that. I would also like reporters, all reporters, to do their jobs and not allow false zombie narratives from any source to pollute the public discourse with lies. One current example, the media echoing of the false story that Detroit autoworkers make, on average $73/hr. This has been utterly debunked in numerous places (About Those Auto Worker Wages…; The media myth: Detroit’s $70-an-hour autoworker) yet it continues to be broadcast.
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Every reporter and pundit needs to be informed enough to call this a lie when the “very important person” they are interviewing says it. It is easy to do in one longish sentence. Allowing the lie to hang out there without refutation is stenography, not journalism.

These are Everything You Thought You Knew Was Wrong Times for a lot of people, Alan Greenspan being a prime example.
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That is a pleasure, to see the people I’ve detested for so long being proved utterly wrong. Too bad many of them feel incapable of shame.

Cliff: “That is a pleasure, to see the people I’ve detested for so long being proved utterly wrong. Too bad many of them feel incapable of shame.”
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Also too bad that the media continues to treat them like very serious people who know important things.

Yeah, that also rankles, wvng. Why are people listening to Bill Kristol? Why are we pretending that Paulson is somehow competent, rather than an ignorant fool/saboteur?

All, William the Bloody. It would be good to label these neoconservatives as the terrorists they are. A scarlet T on the forehead, accompanied by ridicule and disgust wherever they go.
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Or perhaps something like this scene from the Princess Bride:
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Prince Humperdinck: First things first, to the death.
Westley: No. To the pain.
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Prince Humperdinck: I don’t think I’m quite familiar with that phrase.
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Westley: I’ll explain and I’ll use small words so that you’ll be sure to understand, you warthog faced buffoon.
Prince Humperdinck: That may be the first time in my life a man has dared insult me.
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Westley: It won’t be the last. To the pain means the first thing you will lose will be your feet below the ankles. Then your hands at the wrists. Next your nose.
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Prince Humperdinck: And then my tongue I suppose, I killed you too quickly the last time. A mistake I don’t mean to duplicate tonight.
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Westley: I wasn’t finished. The next thing you will lose will be your left eye followed by your right.
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Prince Humperdinck: And then my ears, I understand let’s get on with it.
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Westley: WRONG. Your ears you keep and I’ll tell you why. So that every shriek of every child at seeing your hideousness will be yours to cherish. Every babe that weeps at your approach, every woman who cries out, “Dear God! What is that thing,” will echo in your perfect ears. That is what to the pain means. It means I leave you in anguish, wallowing in freakish misery forever.
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Prince Humperdinck: I think your bluffing.
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Westley: It’s possible, Pig, I might be bluffing. It’s conceivable, you miserable, vomitous mass, that I’m only lying here because I lack the strength to stand. But, then again… perhaps I have the strength after all.
[slowly rises and points sword directly at the prince]
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Westley: DROP… YOUR… SWORD!
[mouth hanging open, drops sword to floor]
. What do you think?

Chumbawamba has a most excellent tune titled Everything You Know Is Wrong on the Un cd. It opens with a radio talk clip about hearing some radio preacher talk about how if you listen to the theme song from the Mr. Ed show backwards, it says “Satan Is the Source”. Then goes on to work in references to a number of big lies/scandals/nutty conspiracy theories. My favorite line, “I lean on those who are in the loop to help them unremember.”

It’s kind of a musical tribute to what Cliff and wvng were saying. A lot of you would probably like the song – Chumbawamba is without doubt one of the most underrated bands of the past 20 years. Catchy, unique, and with a nice radical leftist/anarchist POV.

KT here–

Pluk, as usual, sees everything as a function of an out-of-touch media:

or perhaps, its because its finally “touching” so many Villagers in the media.

For the past seven years, the Village ignored the signs that this economy was going down the toilet, and that “economic growth” was an illusion. While average americans saw their real wages decreasing, or at best, remaining stagnant, the media elite (as part of the overall elite) were not only doing very well in terms of income, but their net worth was skyrocketing thanks to the asset bubble.

Um, for the record, the media was “touched” by all of this well before the real estate bubble burst. At TIME, we have had four rounds of buyouts and layoffs since August 2001 (that was a month before the economic shock that followed 9/11. That first buyout seven years ago reduced the size of the DC bureau by 40%. Just saying.

KT, thanks for the reminder/reality check. Few among us are not hurting, or at least at risk.
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My concern is less an out-of-touch media than a stenographic media that enables zombie narratives like the one in #19 above.
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You won kudos yesterday from the great Matt Yglesias (and me even before him) in the Kissinger thread for calling a lie a lie. And I know how much you value serious discourse about serious issues. How do you think reporters should respond to false narratives that are being transmitted by “very important people?”

Um, for the record, the media was “touched” by all of this well before the real estate bubble burst. At TIME, we have had four rounds of buyouts and layoffs since August 2001 (that was a month before the economic shock that followed 9/11. That first buyout seven years ago reduced the size of the DC bureau by 40%. Just saying.

ah, but its the survivors who continue to provide us with the (as wvng describes it) the zombie narrative. So while the size of Time’s DC bureau may be smaller, that really only mattered to those who remained for a week or two.

The whole fiscal crisis shows how the village looks first and foremost to its own interests — the zombie narrative was that it was absolutely necessary to bail out Paulson’s golfing buddies at Goldman Sachs, Citibanks, etc. to the tune of $700 Billion — and that was the narrative because it was hurting stock prices (and the savings and retirement accounts of the Village elite.) When real jobs were at stake of real working americans, and the cost of the bailout of the domestic auto industry was only $25 billion, skepticism was rampant throughout the media.

The “surviving” village media doesn’t give a damn about what happens to union workers at auto assembly plants in Detroit — but it does care about its own 401k balances. Almost nobody in the DC media who covers politics has any understanding of economics — and the Villagers continue to rely on the opinions of those whose pronouncements and actions would, in the “real” world, completely discredit those people.

What P-luk said. The comparisons to the Great Depression or the Roman Crisis of the Third Century are all too appropriate. As someone who saw this coming and told a lot of skeptical friends for years, this is all too surreal. Another way of putting it is…if we have come to this, what purpose did the media serve in the first place? Other than entertainment that is.

…oh, and this guy is my f@cking hero:
http://rawstory.com/news/2008/Excop_Barry_Cooper_launches_Kop_Busters_1206.html

KT here–

The “surviving” village media doesn’t give a damn about what happens to union workers at auto assembly plants in Detroit — but it does care about its own 401k balances. Almost nobody in the DC media who covers politics has any understanding of economics — and the Villagers continue to rely on the opinions of those whose pronouncements and actions would, in the “real” world, completely discredit those people.

Pluk: I do care about auto workers in Detroit. I also care about members of my own family who are unemployed and do not have health insurance. I care about my laid-off friends, and I care about people I’ve never met who are laid off. Where you get your information I don’t know, but these kinds of sweeping generalizations about other people’s motives don’t really connect to the real world either.

sevenoaks07: I’m one of those famously frugal New Englanders (Use it up, wear it out, make it do or do without), but I’m still amazed at how much less I can spend than I used to. This of course leads me to fruitless wishing that I’d done this a few years ago. But the other thing I notice is that there’s been a remarkable and rapid shift in the culture. Someone said “Frugality is the new black dress.” I am trying, of course, to think of how I can make a living off the new frugality. BTW, I’ve started making bread again too. Hadn’t made a loaf for about 8 years, but you can buy 5 lbs of flour for less than the cost of one loaf of bread. A good hint for those of you thinking of doing this, is to buy a pound of instant yeast. Probably your local health food or whole foods has this, or King Arthur online does.

KT here–

Also, Pluk, is there anything that has ever gone wrong in the history of civilization that you have not blamed on the Washington media? (That’s my own sweeping generalization of your comments.)

KT: agree with you here. I sometimes think progressives have a remarkable lack of empathy for some people, when we all prefer to think empathy is a hallmark of the liberal/progressive movement. Pain comes into every life, and it’s possible to let compassion and wisdom grow from that.

KT here–

Should any of you guys really care about what is happening in our little village here at TIME, Lisa Cullen (who is taking the latest buyout) is blogging it:

http://workinprogress.blogs.time.com/

KT, I agree with kathy #33. But you do understand the media issues that frustrate progressives, particularly false narratives like the one I mention in #19 and #26 above?
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And, an even better one is the new RW obsession about the Fairness Doctrine. George Will wrote an embarrassing column about it today. Steve Benen responded: To reiterate a point from last week, far-right activists mislead people about progressive policy ideas all the time, but as Yglesias recently noted, "I’ve never heard of anything like the current conservative mania for blocking a particular legislative provision that nobody is trying to enact."

KT here–

WV: I totally get that, but sometimes I get tired of being a punching bag for this frustration, and feel like I have to point out that people in the media are in fact people. We have real lives, with real frustrations of our own.

KT, if it helps, pluk is busy taking the shine off the “bright shiny object” in Joe’s thread up above.
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It would be good to figure out how to move beyond this frustration. One way to start would be for folks in this here thread to be less all encompassing in their disdain for “the media.” Another way would be for the media to be less self protective and more willing to entertain and discuss specific instances of press malfeasance – even when they are uncomfortable. As atrios says, “time for a blogger ethics panel.”
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One example, when Halperin made his “the media was like totally in the tank for Obama and terribly biased” comments not one Swampland blogger would respond to numerous requests for your comments. The silence was deafening. If lousy performance by journalists was treated with immediate disdain by peers it would help a lot.

Pluk: I do care about auto workers in Detroit. I also care about members of my own family who are unemployed and do not have health insurance. I care about my laid-off friends, and I care about people I’ve never met who are laid off. Where you get your information I don’t know, but these kinds of sweeping generalizations about other people’s motives don’t really connect to the real world either.
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Karen, I’m sure that each and every individual who is part of the elite media is a fine and caring individual. But we’re not talking about individuals here, rather we’re talking about an “institution” and its collective actions (and inactions) and behaviors.
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so please stop taking my criticism of the media personally — you’re “not the problem” per se; rather its your immersion in Village culture and its norms that makes you, by default, “part of the problem”.
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Also, Pluk, is there anything that has ever gone wrong in the history of civilization that you have not blamed on the Washington media? (That’s my own sweeping generalization of your comments.)
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well, there was that who Vesuvius/Pompeii thing. I don’t think that the Broderistas can be blamed for that

KT here–

WV: (Cough! Cough!) I am not going to use a blog that is run by TIME Magazine to criticize my colleagues at TIME Magazine. Not as long as I continue to collect a paycheck from said TIME Magazine. Have I mentioned they are laying people off around here?

Kt, I understand. But there should be someone at TIME in a position to publicly say “whoah there” when someone commits journalistic malpractice. And not an embarrassing Lil Debbie clone “ombudsman.”
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Froomkin has the right idea: Professor Froomkin Teaches Journalism 101

Continuing on my #40 thought. Halperin made a harsh and unfounded charge – “extreme bias, extreme pro-Obama coverage” – against his fellows in the media, by inference including some at TIME. Specifically, Joe. It would have been both appropriate and reasonable for Joe to have responded with a detailed chronology describing the arc of his campaign narrative. He need not have mentioned Halperin, he could have framed it as “some say.” Any number of other prominent opinion writers, who had moved from admiration of McCain to disgust, could have written a similar narrative. Or a traditional journalist could have done what Jed did: Defending The Media From Halperin’s Tin-Foil Attack by providing a detailed, quantitative analysis of the actual coverage.
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The vast majority of people who comment here want nothing more or less from the media than accurate reporting of actual facts untainted by any kind of political bias. I would add to that a desire to see journalists stop sitting by and politely nodding when their fellows transmit demonstrably false narratives by making the fact of false narratives the story.

Karen, what other topics or information are you afraid to share for fear that you’ll lose your paycheck?
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Sounds to me like the corporations who own the media have a powerful tool to maintain compliance to the corporate agenda by their employees.
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Hey did ya hear that we went into the war in Iraq because everyone had faulty intelligence? I guess all that stuff about cherry picking intel to curve fit the rationale for war were just the rantings of dirty hippies! Thank god we have our media to ensure, for posterity’s sake, that future generations will know just what happened!

wvng and cincinnatus. We’ve no idea whether KT expresses any of that privately, within the corporation. Publically rebuking Halperin would not be cool. Um – or -perhaps you email everyone in your group/business with your less flattering opinions of your colleagues.

Publically rebuking Halperin would not be cool. I appreciate the difficulties, but publicly dealing with false media narratives is essential or the public purpose of news media is corrupted (which it often has been – I know the history). In science, if someone says something overtly stupid or unsupportable they pay for it professionally. Of course, sometimes that overtly stupid thing turns out to be true (as in Barbara McClintock), but that is the risk of pushing the envelope.
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Somehow I doubt Halperin will receive a Nobel in 30 years for reporting “extreme bias, extreme pro-Obama coverage.”
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But in our culture, right now, there is no professional or public penalty for advancing false RW frames. Fer Gawd’s sake, CNN interviewed Rush Limbaugh while they were waiting for Obama to come out for his first post-election press conference.

KT here–

WV, are you still there? I am on vacation this week, but had finally gotten around to reading our cover story this week. On that point thatyou were making earlier, I just wanted to note that Bill Saporito got it right in TIME Magazine this week:
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Next year, workers at Ford plants will earn an average $53 an hour with benefits, the result of a breakthrough industry agreement worked out with the UAW in 2007. That’s close to the $49 an hour that workers at the transplants average and far below the $71 an hour with benefits that was the old UAW wage, and that was cited by Alabama Senator Richard Shelby as a reason to oppose any bailout. And the cost differential on enginemaking between Detroit and the transplants will narrow to a couple of dollars by 2011. “You want to just choke these guys [in Congress] and take them through the 60 plants that I’ve been through and see what I’ve seen,” says Harbour.

Here’s the link to the story:
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http://www.time.com/time/business/article/0,8599,1864168,00.html