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Record Turnout? Not So Much.

By Karen Tumulty | November 6, 2008 | +

Noted election expert Curtis Gans of American University’s Center for the Study of the American Electorate finds:

Despite lofty predictions by some academics, pundits, and practitioners that voter turnout would reach levels not seen since the turn of the last century, the percentage of eligible citizens casting ballots in the 2008 presidential election stayed at virtually the same relatively high level as it reached in the polarized election of 2004.
According to a report and turnout projection released today by American University’s Center for the Study of the American Electorate (CSAE) and based, in part, on nearly final but unofficial vote tabulations as compiled by the Associated Press as of 7 p.m. Wednesday, November 5, the
percentage* of Americans who cast ballots for president in this year’s presidential election will reach between 126.5 million and 128.5 million when all votes have been counted by early next month.
If this prediction proves accurate, turnout would be at either exactly the same level as in 2004 or, at most, one percentage point higher (or between 60.7 percent and 61.7 percent). If the rate of voting exceeds 61.0 percent of eligibles, turnout will have been the highest since 1964. This projection is based on the 121.5 million tabulated votes compiled by the Associated Press plus some estimate—partially based on experience with post-election vote counting in previous elections and partially based on factors specific to this election, most notably the spread of balloting prior to Election Day—on how many ballots are still to be counted.

But, wait, what about all those lines we saw across the country on election day? :

A downturn in the number and percentage of Republican voters going to the polls seemed to be the primary explanation for the lower than predicted turnout. The percentage of eligible citizens voting Republican declined to 28.7 percent down 1.3 percentage points from 2004. Democratic turnout increased by 2.6 percentage points from 28.7 percent of eligibles to 31.3 percent. It was the seventh straight increase in the Democratic share of the eligible vote since the party’s share dropped to 22.7 percent of eligibles in 1980.

* Gans must mean total number here, not percentage. A 120-million% turnout would be high indeed.

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  • jarais

    OT – I like the new banner. Now if someone could do something about the moderation…

  • Karen Tumulty

    KT here–

    Jarais: I feel the same way, though I just liberated another batch.

  • Dee in Columbia MD

    KT I looked for you in the media row in Grant park but I couldn’t find you. I would hae loved to converse with you wihtout fear of moderation:)

  • Dee in Columbia MD

    I hope that the MSM will do a better job this time around and follow your lead in highlighting the vote shifts. In 2004 young people got short shrift even though the under 25 set increased the vote by 11 points, they didn’t get much credit because the overall percentage of the electorate remained the same.

  • Matt

    So blame the Republicans for our failure to reach historic proportions of civic engagement?

    http://www.political-buzz.com/

  • Karen Tumulty

    KT here–

    Dee: Sorry I missed you. I was there, but it was a madhouse.

  • Dee in Columbia MD

    The lessons of the Clack vote writ large. For years Democrats took African American votes for granted and no one seemed to understand that when Blacks felt betrayed by Democrats they stayed home. Now you see Republicans doing the same thing. So we do have a lot in common — party loyalists who are not members of the nut brigade behave similarly when taken for granted.

  • fourlegsgood

    So much for Palin “energizing” their voters.
    .
    Palin is the gift that keeps on giving.

  • Dee in Columbia MD

    KT — I know and poor me I got stuck near FOX, what a blow.

  • Dee in Columbia MD

    Yeah and I was in a cab today where the driver admitted he was a Republican (although anecdotal- it’s still odd behavior for regular voters to admit they are a member of the losing team)but said that not only couldn’t he vote for McCain because of Palin, he said some of the crazy things being said by people in his party is making him question whether he should just register and not pick a party.
    .
    So let the blood bath begin. Democratic percentage is liable to continue this upward trend.

  • viciousmaniac

    I’d frankly take all that with a grain of salt if voter fraud or malfunctions are not accounted for. For example, I discovered that sometime between 2006 and 2008 that I had been essentially registered four extra times; 4 variants of my name (some with a middle initial, “nickname” versions of my first name, one outright misspelled, etc.) all sharing the same address: mine. This was confirmed when I received 5 literatures for these various names during the 07 primaries.

    Judging by the sheer number of provisional ballots I saw this year (including me, thanks to this issue), I probably wasn’t the only one. Whether or not it’s voter fraud or simple errors (probably the latter), I picture all of those fake names of mine going on to skew the voting statistics one way or other.

  • trifecta

    Kind of off topic, but it appears Alaska was rigged. The polls for all 3 races were off about 12-14 points in the Republican favor. At the same time, voter turnout including the absentees they say are left is at 54%. Turnout in 2004 was 66%.
    .
    You had very enthusiastic Obama supporters, and you had the Governor of Alaska running, and voter turnout dropped 12%. Which is about the same numbers that the polls were wrong in the Presidential race, the Senate race, and the house race.
    .
    Yeah, that is totally believable. Alaska gets it’s first member of the ticket, and 20% of the electorate from 2004 decides to stay home. Whatever.

  • cincinnatus est exterminata!

    This guys sounds extremely confused, as KT noted…don’t buy it. Wouldn’t we measure voter turnout with a whole number and not a percentage?

    FAIL!

  • etsumi

    KT–can you reconcile Gans’ numbers with these?

    http://www.washingtonmonthly.com/archives/individual/2008_11/015545.php

    Reading WA-MO, one would logically conclude that this is the greatest turnout in nearly a century.

  • kathy

    KT – what are you hearing about the very peculiar low Alaska vote – see Nate Silver?

  • trifecta

    This was the lowest turnout in Alaska’s relatively short history. In 1960-2004 there were higher turnouts than in 2008. That is really odd.

  • kathy

    Watching Hardball I’m trying to wrap my head around the Republicans kicking out folks like Kathleen Parker and Chris Buckley for saying Sarah Palin wasn’t ready, when the McCain campaign is now letting us know that SP didn’t know what countries are in North America, and genuinely doesn’t know that Africa is a continent, not a country.
    .
    Apparently their sin was actually letting the American people know this before they had a chance to vote. We were only supposed to find out when it could be used as an excuse for why McCain lost.
    .
    Is there any limit to the confused mendacity of this crowd? No wonder they’ve lost almost everybody who uses a brain.

  • anon76

    Trifecta- follow the comments section in the entry over at 538- several of the natives weigh in on the matter. I also believe that Warren Olney had a segment on To the Point on NPR yesterday about what the hell might have happened. Personally I won’t worry too much until we see the final figures.

  • kathy

    Here’s more on the Alaska figures, from mudflats. I’ll post it on another thread, too:
    http://mudflats.wordpress.com/2008/11/06/crunching-the-numbers-in-alaska/

  • http://swampland.blogs.time.com/2008/12/17/2008-voter-turnout-lots-and-lots-more-democrats/ Swampland – TIME.com » Blog Archive 2008 Voter Turnout: Lots and Lots More Democrats «

    [...] memories- http://swampland.blogs.time.com/2008/11/06/record-turnout-not-so-much/ . KT and Gans a month ago- “Despite lofty predictions by some academics, pundits, and practitioners [...]

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