Bill Nelson’s Guide to Watching the Florida Election Results

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I caught up with Florida Senator Bill Nelson at Obama’s Jacksonville rally. He told me he believes Obama will carry the state by 4 percentage points. “Florida has never seen a presidential organizational effort like this,” he said. “This overwhelms George Bush’s 2004 effort.”

As election returns start coming in tomorrow night, Nelson will be watching Pasco County, in the Tampa-St. Pete area, as an early bellwether. Bush carried the county handily in 2004, but he narrowly lost it four years before. “Another indicator is North Florida,” he says. “Is [Obama] only 10 points behind, as opposed to 20? John Kerry lost it by 18 or 20. If he’s within 10 points, that’s a win.”