Obama’s Florida Bet

Politico reports this morning that Al and Tipper Gore will campaign for Obama tomorrow in Fort Lauderdale and West Palm Beach – the first time the former vice president has stumped for a presidential candidate in the Sunshine State since his narrow loss there cost him the presidency in 2000.

The Goracle’s trip comes after Obama held a midnight rally with Bill Clinton last night and broadcast live before 20,000 Sunrise, Floridians and millions of Americans for his 30-minute commercial. This morning we’ve just landed in Sarasota where Obama is scheduled to hold an early voting rally.

All of this points to an Obama bet that Florida could be an early clincher for him. Polls here close 7pm EST and if he takes Florida and simply holds the rest of Kerry’s 2004 states it’s game over for McCain. A DCCC source says to keep an eye on the vulnerable GOP Miami House races for an early indicator on how Dems are playing there on Election Night.

Early voting looks promising for Obama where registered Dems are outpacing GOP voters 45.4% to 39.0%, though there’s no way of telling which way those ballots were cast. Obama holds a 3.5% lead in the RCP average and a 4% lead in our latest poll. And, taking no chances, Obama deployed his ground game guru Steve Hildebrand to Miami three weeks ago. Also lurking around the Sunshine State: Paul Tewes, the guy who won Iowa for him and had been Obama’s liaison to the DNC, who’s been hanging out at Obama’s Tampa HQ. (Both men are mailing in their day jobs from Florida).

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  • nibblybits

    I guess when it comes to non-toxic surrogates, the Dems just have more. Good strategy to spread everyone out in the last week to all the battlegrounds.

    It’s still gonna be the ground game that wins this thing.

    Where is the YOUTH VOTE? Those lazy little turnips aren’t making it to early voting. Don’t they want an economy with JOBS?

  • mccainfluffer

    “the first time the former vice president has stumped for a presidential candidate in the Sunshine State since his narrow loss there cost him the presidency in 2000.”

    Gore Won Florida – the election was robbed. There has been some excellent reporting by investigative journalists about the shenanigans in Florida 2000. More recently, there has also been some excellent work about what happened in Ohio in 2004.

  • sqr1

    Landslide.

    I hear McCain is pretaping his concession speech and will be releasing it from an undisclosed location.

  • sqr1

    “Don’t they want an economy with JOBS?”
    .
    Believe it or not, Obama’s championing of the $700B Wall Street kickback bill may not have completely convinced some of the younger voters that he has their best interests at heart.

  • Casey Morris

    I see that reporters are rapidly running out of ways to say, “People are voting. We don’t actually know what’s happening but are happy to mindlessly speculate.”
    .

    Time to drink.

  • sgwhiteinfla

    15 billion in profits for Exxon Mobil last quarter AFTER the financial crisis. I think this might be a de@th blow for McCain if Obama uses it right and I have every confidence that he will. Something like.
    .
    “People are hurting, record job losses, record home foreclosures, record debt.
    Now Exxon Mobil has been setting a record as well. While middle america is hurting Exxon Mobil brought in record proits in the last quarter. $15 billion dollars of profit to be exact. Now it sounds like exxon mobil is doing just fine. In fact they are doing well. So ask yourself why would John McCain want to give the Exxon Mobiles of the world another 4 billion dollars in tax breaks when he doesnt want to give working class americans who are the backbone of our economy a tax break?”
    .
    But of course with a lot more inspiration than that. I really think this could be the knockout blow

  • sgwhiteinfla

    stuck in moderation. going to politico

  • sqr1

    To the management:
    .
    I think we can all agree that if the rest of the Time.com website and especially the advertisements was as functionally FUBAR as the comments section, it would be fixed in an hour.
    .
    But let me put this in a context that management may understand. Less/worse functionality = fewer visitors. Fewer visitors = fewer eyeballs and clickthroughs. Fewer eyeballs and clickthroughs = less ad revenue.

  • Ohg Rea Tone

    This is a time of world despair. Economic collapse with heightened military tensions – We owe Senator Obama our gratitude for giving us the option of hope. An open letter to the Senator. …………….

    http://thefiresidepost.com/2008/10/29/senator-obama-to-sir-with-love-2/

  • http://phd9.blogspot.com Paul Dirks

    Dems are outpacing GOP voters 45.4% to 39.0%, though there’s no way of telling which way those ballots were cast

    I think that when all is said and done, that we’ll find that an surprising large proprtion of registered Republicans voted for Obama. This reflects the number of people who think that Palin was the absolute last straw.

  • sgwhiteinfla

    folks I think the Obama offensive on Fox is making a difference. Listen to Neil Cavuto change his tune a little bit.
    .
    http://crooksandliars.com/media/play/wmv/6692/23746

  • burtonbill

    Hi Jay, Actually the polls only close at 7 EST in the main part of Florida. In the Panhandle polls close at 7 CST. This is a big deal because there was a dust-up over exit-poll reports came out before the Panhandle had finished voting. (A Bush cousin, working one of the Fox News desks, made a very accurate obvservation about this and Fox really ran with it, claining a MSM conspiracy.) In 2008 I wonder whether the nets are going to withhold the “results” (exit polls) until after the Panhandle closes.
    All best, Bill Burton

  • sgwhiteinfla

    I wonder if anybody is going to bring up the fact that John McCain has not repudiated JTP for saying electing Obama would mean “the de@th to Israel.”

  • sgwhiteinfla

    Get da f outta here,
    .
    You arent the real Bill Burton
    .
    Are you?
    .
    Lol

  • http://pourmecoffee.blogspot.com pourmecoffee

    Ha. Some of his best friends are old white guys. C’mon, scared old crazy people – you can do it! Vote O!

  • gyges1

    I don’t know why everyone always forgets that Florida has two time zones. Every single election everyone seems to have the epiphany that the panhandle is still voting as they’re trotting out the news that the polls are closed.

  • http://pourmecoffee.blogspot.com pourmecoffee

    Sweet! I am tracking scary black people on Drudge’s front page in the days before the election, and today’s is one for the ages!

  • sgwhiteinfla

    I honestly don’t know how this would turn out but I would be interested in seeing how many new American jobs Exxon mobile created in the last year in light of their record profits. If thats a low number Obama could really destroy McCain’s whole argument. Maybe a journalist should look into it hint hint

  • Andy from MA

    At least an academy award winning nobel laurate like Al Gore, would eclipse Obama as a big Hollywood celebrity.
    .
    JNS thanks for not speculating on the results of early voting. If Obama is elected do you become the new Time WH correspondent?
    .
    I understand the early voting exit polling will be folded into the election day exit polling to give a more holistic view of the exit poll results by state on Election Day.

  • newfloridian

    McCain will be giving his concession speech from a bunker somewhere in Arizone. He has asked most of the Republican Party to join him there for one final goodbye.. Eva Braun.. oops Cindy McCain will be there with him… sort of a hale bopp type farewell, since most of the Republican Party has followed him down the path to final destruction. Unfortunately probably only Joe Lieberman will be in attendance. as Sarah Palin will be too busy to attend and the Republican candidates are all too busy freshening up their resumes because a lot of them will be looking for jobs in this terrible economy. Never a good prospect when old white men with few successful business experiences have to start looking for a job.
    Look for some of the Republican candidates to be out on street corners selling newspapers in the next few months.

  • cdservais

    Polls here close 7pm EST

    What about the panhandle!!! Doesn’t that mean the state isn’t done voting until 8pm EST?!?! Haven’t we done this before!!! Aaahhhhh!!!

  • newfloridian

    Yes, Florida does indeed have two times zones, EST and the late 1800′s, also known as Selma Alabama early 60′s

  • http://pourmecoffee.blogspot.com pourmecoffee

    Collect ‘em all: Poll Closing Times.

  • http://www.ghostnote.com Cookie Puss

    I like Lunchables.

  • g_crush

    .
    billburton: This is a big deal because there was a dust-up over exit-poll reports came out before the Panhandle had finished voting.
    .
    Yup, ‘tho I’m less worried about how calling the race early based on Eastern time zone voting results could influence the panhandle. The 1st District hasn’t supported a Dem as president since 1960, and has a Cook Partisan Voting Index score of R +19. Reporting exit polling results from the other side of the state isn’t going to have much effect on the panhandle…Of course, outlets like FNC are going to use something like that to try and reinforce the ‘liberal media’ myth, but whatever.

  • sgwhiteinfla
  • kathy

    We’re not going to have to rely on exit polls this time. All of us will have access to actual vote totals as they come out, and therefore will know where they come from. Nate Silver and Mark Blumenthal will not be bound by voter news service embargoes.
    .
    I remember during the primaries when Nate (writing then as Poblano) predicted Hillary would win Indiana by 23,000 – at 10:00, fully 3 hours earlier (as I recall) before any channel was willing to predict. The next day totals were Hillary by 23,000+. (It eventually went down to 16,000 due to absentee ballots). That was really impressive, and he’ll be doing the same on Tuesday.

  • southernbell49

    Bill was excellent last night in refuting the silly “pinko” attacks.

    We really need someone to point out that McCain’s decision to call Dems really nasty names, including harsh stuff about Pelosi and Reid (they’re dangerous!)means we can kiss bipartisanship goodbye if McCain is elected.

  • Aaron

    Other reasons why Democrats should be focusing on Florida:
    - Florida is still a toss-up! Pollster.com averages show about a 3% lead (48%-45%), with both candidates under 50%. Barack Obama needs at least 30% of those voters who are still undecided to win. Also, GOTV efforts are still needed to, well, get out those votes.
    - There are vulnerable GOP House seats in Florida, so Democrats should be trying to win them. A strong tailwind at the top of the ticket may move boats lower down on the Democratic ballot.
    .
    So, less a bet and more of an investment.

  • sgwhiteinfla

    SouthernBell,
    .
    I posted a reply about that subject over on lagoon because the mods kept eating it over here. The truth is John McCain has only been bipartisan in that he will sign on to Dem policies every now and then. But he has never brought Dems over to republican policys that he endorsed. But nobody talks about that. Thats what I call an opportunist, not a maverick

  • Dee in Columbia MD

    SG – You are absolsutely right. I have been making this same point for weeks in terms of leadership. How can you be a leader if no one is following you?

  • Andy from MA

    SG: On Salter — the sense of entitlement and delusions of grandeur these guys have amazes me. McCain enjoyed quite a positive relationship with the MSM and co-opted them. How many countless times did AMC, MS, JC felt the need to explain what Joe McCarthy, excuse me, John McCain meant in his meandering and oft time incoherent manner.
    .
    The failure was that his message only reasonated with a narrow audience. It was not the MSM that was biased against him…they were in his corner up until September, when Caribou Barbie danced across the stage. It is flummery (ok b.s.).

    The GOP needs to live by its credo of personal responsibility. Middle class Americans are the victims here, not the McCain campaign.

    I’d make a snary remark about the merits of @ssisted suicide but it would be in questionable taste. I will refrain from doing so.

  • Andy from MA

    Re-edited for posting

    SG: On Salter — the sense of entitlement and delusions of grandeur these guys have amazes me. McCain enjoyed quite a positive relationship with the MSM and he co-opted them. How many countless times did AMC, MS, JC felt the need to explain what Joe McCarthy, excuse me, John McCain meant in his meandering and oft time incoherent manner.
    .
    The failure was that his message only reasonated with a narrow audience. It was not the MSM that was biased against him…they were in his corner up until September, when Caribou Barbie danced across the stage. It is flummery (ok b.s.).

    The GOP needs to live by its credo of personal responsibility. Middle cl@ss Americans are the victims here, not the McCain campaign.

    I’d make a snary remark about the merits of @ssisted sui cide but it would be in questionable taste. I will refrain from doing so.

  • http://pourmecoffee.blogspot.com pourmecoffee

    I wonder who is in charge of making sure there are a few people around to clap when W. slinks off in shame?

  • http://www.inworldstudios.com jayackroyd

    hahaha

    The Page has Gore labeled “the former president.”

    http://thepage.time.com/2008/10/30/al-gore-to-hit-the-stump-in-sunshine-state/

  • Andy from MA

    Jayackroyd – Note to Time HR dept.: Add one caption writer to layoff list.

  • http://www.inworldstudios.com jayackroyd

    I wonder who is in charge of making sure there are a few people around to clap when W. slinks off in shame?

    Ron Nessen? The Nixon kids?

  • Andy from MA

    coffee: Zen riddle of: What does one hand clapping sound like?

  • Dee in Columbia MD

    SG — Boo hoo poor Salter. Give me a break he needs to man-up and deal with reality. They got every break possible and because their deal leader (and I am using the term loosely) couldn’t put an effective team together we are supposed to feel what — sorry for them? Please all these jokers do is whine. McCain is still whining about the money, the ads, he practically had a tantrum on Larry King last night. My kid didn’t whine this much when she was two.

  • Andy from MA

    Dee,
    .
    McCarthy, excuse me, McCain looked very presidential, didn’t he?

  • http://pourmecoffee.blogspot.com pourmecoffee

    Ha! I hope Barney the Dog doesn’t turn on him.

  • Andy from MA

    coffee: Can’t wait to see the dedication of w’s presidential library; a milk crate with “My pet goat” standing all by itself.

  • Dee in Columbia MD

    I say lets kick’em when they are down — why risk pulling a hamstring.

  • http://engstudent.wordpress.com/ Eric the student

    sgwhiteinfla Says:
    Thursday, October 30, 2008 at 10:27 am
    15 billion in profits for Exxon Mobil last quarter AFTER the financial crisis. I think this might be a de@th blow for McCain if Obama uses it right and I have every confidence that he will. Something like.
    .
    “People are hurting, record job losses, record home foreclosures, record debt.
    Now Exxon Mobil has been setting a record as well. While middle america is hurting Exxon Mobil brought in record proits in the last quarter. $15 billion dollars of profit to be exact. Now it sounds like exxon mobil is doing just fine. In fact they are doing well. So ask yourself why would John McCain want to give the Exxon Mobiles of the world another 4 billion dollars in tax breaks when he doesnt want to give working class americans who are the backbone of our economy a tax break?”
    .
    But of course with a lot more inspiration than that. I really think this could be the knockout blow

    .

    Sounds like the script for a last minute produced add to seal teh deal with those who are still concerned with the economy and who’s best get us out of the ditch.
    .
    McCain’s going to get pwn3d
    .

  • http://engstudent.wordpress.com/ Eric the student

    im in moderation – what did I do?

  • http://engstudent.wordpress.com/ Eric the student

    Comment in moderation – what did I do?

  • pirate wench (demwoman)

    Eric, you said too much :) .

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