It’s the Turnout, Stupid.

I was just thinking that, although it is clunk this year, it was probably a good thing for Gallup to break out the “Traditional” versus “Expanded” models for all to see. Let’s get it all the big changes on the table – demographic, regional, technological — and then put it back together with a smarter look at who is a likely voter and why.

Any thoughts on the relationships between the likely/registered distinction and the waves of early voting that many states have seen?

But how much do Georgia and Missouri matter? Although I agree, big turnout could be the difference between a 390 EV blowout and a more traditional win. I’m not sure how much that matters, though, as recent presidents have shown the ability to govern as if they got 390 EV even when they didn’t…

KT,
Its interesting that the McCain campaign, Joe Scarborough and the whole cast of characters at FOXNEWS all talk about the unprecendented turnout but don’t want to use the registered voters numbers in all the polls. It just shows how afraid they are of reality.

I wonder who has the enthusiasm on his side? I understand Ohio is kind of an important state.

“The McCain campaign actually had to bus in school kids from the surrounding area in order to fill the event. As reported by MSNBC”

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/10/30/mccain-camp-busses-in-sch_n_139300.html

It’s basically a data wave coming ashore. The incentive for both parties is to get it right, so it’s just a matter now of waiting for it to hit and sorting it all out. The increased transparency of the web has added an element of inspired amateurism that adds even more accuracy to the process in the same way that peer review does. We’ll know a lot more about voting patterns in 2012 than we did in 2008.

There are many variables in play. My first question is how do we determine ‘likely’ voters. There are indeed a variety of different approaches. On of the more interesting post-mortems we could do, is examine the various polls after the fact and decide which ones were best at predicting who eventually turned out.

My second observation is – no wonder the Republicans are trying to maximize disenfranchisement. Interesting that the party that stresses freedom is nevertheless the most enthusiastic about stripping people of their most basic rights.

It’s going to be an interesting night.

KT here–

Dumde: I honestly don’t know what to make of early voting. This could be a crossection of what we see on election day, or it could simply be the most committed voters.

Click here for the definitive early voting data. Clearly, there is one conclusion: blacks are voting early disproportionate to their numbers in the population. You could say that was easy to guess, but guessing and seeing aren’t the same things. The party affiliation data is mixed, but favors Democrats generally.

McCain’s latest lie has me really steamed. He’s claiming that “last night Barack Obama said if he lost this election he’d come back and try again in 4 years. Sounds good to me.” Obama did not say anything like that. He told Brian Williams he’d go back to the Senate and do what he could to help the next President. Nora O’Donnell just had an Obama surrogate on – Ann Dunce, I mean Dunn – who did not bother to correct Nora’s playing of McCain’s piece. This is a further narrative of “Barack Obama’s not ready – yet.” McCain just makes up things.

How long does it normally take to “await moderation”? Actually, I’m glad to see moderation on this blog, is there a post somewhere describing the policy? (Sorry, I was on a trip to Asia the last 10 days and obviously missed some things).

Seeing part of the Williams’ interview with Obama. BriWi asked Barack how he’d know what kind of justice he’d be appointing if he didn’t ask particulars about how he’d rule. Barack then schooled Brian in the fact that having taught constitutional law for ten years he knew how to ask questions about judicial philosophy that would let him know what he wanted to know.

Speaking of data, this endorsement best summarizes what I most like about Obama, and it’s from outside the echo chamber.

I honestly don’t know what to make of early voting. This could be a crossection of what we see on election day

It’s worth noting in any event, that the more early voting there is, the less stress there will be on the polling places on Tuesday. So even if the early voters are the more committed ones, they will make it easier for the more casual voter to participate as well.

Barack Obama just gave the most thorough answer you could imagine to Brian Williams on how he would go about picking Supreme Court justices. I really hope this guy wins on Tuesday. We deserve a president who actually knows sh!t.

“You could say that was easy to guess, but guessing and seeing aren’t the same things.”
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One possible motivation is that challanges, voting irregularities, and purposefully-legislated inadequate facilities might be a factor.

dennisdenuto114 – you have no idea how funny that comment is! um, yes, you’ve missed some stuff about moderation. Read through a few threads over the last few days. comments have to be liberated by hand (mostly by our lowly handmaiden Karen Tumulty, may she long prosper)

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Dennis – anything with a profanity or violent word in it gets put into moderation automatically…hence, even the word ‘a$$ociation’ has to be scrubbed to avoid getting picked up. I imagine that there’s a limit on hyperlinks, but I haven’t tested that yet.
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As for how long do we have to wait in moderation, it depends on whether or not the blogger (hi, Karen!) can drop everything else and clear out the queue.

dennis – avoid any words that have letter sequences in them that could trigger a moderation. For instance, you’ll need to type p@ass, embarr@ssed, @ssumed.

Also … adjectives are not permitted. Or nouns.

is there a post somewhere describing the policy?

Nope, it’s completely hit and miss, AFAICT. “Rat f—er” is allowed, but heaven help you if you spell s3x with an ‘e.’

oops. I goofed in the first version of this comment, and it got moderated!
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dennis – avoid any words that have letter sequences in them that could trigger a moderation. For instance, you’ll need to type p@ss, embarr@ssed, @ssumed.

wow…I did use the word “blowout”…

And of course, you cannot directly copy/paste McCain/Palin “sentiments”, as they are likely to draw the attention of the moderator to your commentary.
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Which btw, says what about GOP conduct this election cycle?

usually, early vote is overwhelmingly Republican. The fact that we are running even or slightly ahead in some places is a real good sign.

On topic (oh, do we have topics?)
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Living in Vermont I’ve been persistently pursued by the Obama campaign to help GOTV in New Hampshire. Emails asking me to go to NH, calls asking me to go to NH, calls asking me to make calls to NH (which I will do). These guys have an incredible organization.

KT here–

Re moderation: HS never replied to my open letter yesterday, but i just liberated 16 more comments from the demonspawn filter.

Interesting version of the McCain lie about what Obama said re: what he would do if he lost. On CNN Ed Henry said that McCain had a comment on Obama saying if he lost he’d go back to the senate and help President McCain, and then they played McCain saying “sounds good to me.”
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So they saved his punchline but cleaned up his lie. Amazing.

@53_3 – Is there any human in America who would have a problem understanding why an African-American might vote with excess enthusiasm in this election? Only the Limbaugh/Hannity types could interpret that behavior as something other than democratic.

Truly said, pourmecoffee.
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At least you have correctly sorted Americans in to “humans” and, uh…
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It’s a blast that Georgia and other states might just be snatched away by the very same electorate the GOP always figured the would never need:
http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/10/30/ms.senate/index.html

pourmecoffee:
The moderate ate my comments again!
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Here’s a build-it-yourself link to a cnn article where the very demographic the GOP figured it would never need might just turn some red bastions blue:
http://
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http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/10/30/ms.senate/index.html

I take great pleasure in watching Mark Salter come completely unhinged in the press. That is all.

I wonder who has the enthusiasm on his side?

I’ll say it again. Can you imagine the coverage if John McCain had 100,000 people showing up, effin’ routinely, at campaign events in blue or battleground states?

Well, there’s enthusiasm and there’s enthusiasm. The candidates need the kind of enthusiasm that ends with punched ballots. This isn’t always easy to see, and that’s why the data matters. For instance, the elderly are historically incredibly reliable voters, yet they may not be the ones showing up by the hundreds of thousands to rally. The young have disappointed before. This looks different, but numbers will tell.

Anecdote time: People at the San Antonio site where we voted early today said they’re seeing an extraordinary number of first-time voters this year. How many wasn’t stated but it fits the image of turnout bursting record in the state.

As of yesterday, San Antonio early voting accounted for 295,564 ballots, a record. Statewide, early voting in the 15 largest counties already exceeds the 2.4 million vote record set in 2004.

What it means? I don’t know. The state is still going to go McCain. But early voting used to be the early indicator of conservative vote here. I suspect that’s changing and is listing more toward Obama.

The obvious supposition on the surge of early voters is they couldn’t vote last time, because of lines or other obstacles. No way to know, of course, whether that is true. But there may be an anti-Rove perfect storm in operation here-the voter suppression efforts that won him two elections, may have created a situation where otherwise moderately motivated voters (“it doesn’t matter”) are more committed to cast their votes. And, of course, if those voters are black voters, the eff U Karl fraction rises.

Rove’s 3 point chunk, that took Bush into the barely majority range, were people who were moderately motivated–who believed it doesn’t really matter who is elected. He got them out. Nobody is getting them out now. And the flip side of Rove’s strategy–to do everything possible to keep those black people from voting is backfiring–it’s turning them out in settings where they are not impeded by long lines and other barriers.

Although the numbers have fluctuated, there are very few polls that have had McCain above 45%. (In the gallup daily McCain’s been at 47% 4 days in the last month and a half.) It’s hard to see how he raises his ceiling. And Jayack – the cable shows virtually never tell us how many people are in McCain crowds. They don’t pan the venue, they just show McCain at the podium. I wonder if the McCain campaign demands that of networks covering their events.
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Matthews yesterday said he’d seen numbers that he couldn’t divulge which indicated a tremendous amount of change was coming. Not sure what he could have seen that hasn’t been available. But the cable shows are seizing on McCain’s @ssertion that the race is tightening, cuz where’s the fun if it isn’t?

More factors tending to increase early voting: 1) Better candidates. BOTH McCain and Obama have far better approval ratings than Bush and Kerry. 2) More early voting. Many states have added and extended early voting. 3) Better organized campaigns, particularly Obama’s GOTV operation. 4) A more mature netroots. Dean’s Army has grown.

Hey – I test-ran sex yesterday and it came through just fine. We’ll see today…
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If I were a black voter residing in Florida, you bet I’d be out early voting this time around! Having been suppressed in two elections in a row would be enough for me. I’m wondering how much of that experience – the experience of not being able to vote, or having one’s vote cast aside – is driving those voting early?

Kathy you bet they haev a seious ground game. I live in Maryland and they call me repeatdly to alternate between reaching folks in PA and VA.

Oops – yesterday I tested s*x straight spelled and it got past the moderatron1984, but today, no dice .

If I don’t get liberated in an hour or two, I’ll recap the rest of the actually topical nature of the post.

We won’t know until it’s over, but I’ll bet the ground game makes a huge difference.

KT, thanks for that update from James P. Helps to explain why I am seeing so many McCain ads in PA. I get an anti-Obama mailer every day. I read in Dick Polman’s blog post today that his e-mail box is full every day with messages so nasty they can’t go on the air or be mailed. In spite of this barrage, there has still been remarkably little movement in the polls here. As your first graphic shows McCain is under in every one of those states except Georgia. Obama has many paths to win, McCain almost none.

Yesterday, you tested straight s*x?! Damn, girl.

If the election were fair, I think the electorate would look a lot more like the registered voter model than the 2004/likely voter model. But I’m worried about the impact of voting machines slowing the process, especially in poorer areas, leading to lower turnout in those regions; The voting problems will be concentrated in more heavily Democratic areas.
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I’d still be really surprised if that allowed McCain to win, but it does lower the likelihood of a big Obama win in the Electoral College.

It ain’t a good sign that McCain has to run even one ad in Georgia at this point in the campaign.

Paul Dirks Says:
” .. Interesting that the party that stresses freedom is nevertheless the most enthusiastic about stripping people of their most basic rights. ..”
For a moment, suppose that we are talking of some party in a banana republic somewhere in South America or Zimbabwe. Then that statement suggests some interesting tags with regard to the country and its leader: undemocratic, backward, undeveloped,
despotic, totalitarian, tyrannical

…. what did I leave out?

Voter suppression?
Maybe the GOP can be accused of engaging in anti-American, unpatriotic activities.
Our media, the sentinels of our democracy, MUST check this out.

Do we know anything about the affect of the long count time for the early vote on what we’re going to see for vote totals Tuesday night?

That georgia poll is interesting. I don’t remember seeing another example where the likely voter/registered voter outcome is actually reversed.

I gotta love Matthews for wearing his heart on his sleeve, with a red sweater and a phillies cap. His unabashed emotionalism is very endearing, most of the time. Even though some folks here don’t like him, he actually is as straightforward and honest as anyone on cable. Way to go Tweety.

Kathy,
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here is the full exchange with Sanchez and Goldfarb. Let me know if you change your mind about it.
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KT here–

Kathy: I’m way more cynical than you are, I guess. I keep thinking this has something to do with CM thinking of running for the Senate from Pa. He sure has been having a lot of Pa. pols on the show lately.

I honestly don’t know what to make of early voting. This could be a crossection of what we see on election day, or it could simply be the most committed voters.
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I’m late to this, and this is also a response to Dirks’ comment on “likely voter” models. But I have to say that this has to be read as an increase in likely dem voters. Whether you see it as a response to voter suppression tactics (which I do, and which should be reported on–at least as often as weather conditions) or as a response to the inconvenience of voting during working hours on a weekday, the affected voters are going to be predominantly democratic voters.
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Add in Obama’s campaign focusing on them, and one has to conclude that they skew Dem.
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But, you know, wtf. Instead of speculating, we can just wait and eee. Odd concept, but the election is in November, the inauguration in January.
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[Paper ballots and purple fingers, I say.]

It’s like everything else in a presidential election – what matters is state by state. Most look encouraging. I’m worried about Colorado, where the early Democratic turnout seems unimpressive. I hope these westerners aren’t all talk and cut out the healthy activity long enough to vote.

pourme- I believe the term we use is “all hat and no saddle”.

I live in Georgia and voted early–a week ago. I waited for an hour and a half in line. I understand that is now nothing–people have waited for up to six hours. Over 1 million people have voted here. And there are less than 10 million people in the entire state. People, not eligible voters.

I live in a strongly Republican area. My three Obama yard signs are surrounded by dozens of McCain-Palin signs. This should be a no-brainer. Eight, ten point advantage to McCain. But something is happening. Our senator Saxby Chambliss–the one who ran ads against Max Cleland tentatively linking him to Osama bin Laden–should be winning re-election easily. But every other ad on TV is an attack ad on his Democratic opponent, Jim Martin. Why pour such resources into an easy re-election? Maybe if it’s not so easy.

Change is coming. And I for one cannot wait. Game on.

[...] I go to Swampland …where Karen Tumulty has posted a Time/CNN poll which looks pretty good (according to my previously discussed 50% [...]

Early voted today in Georgia with my daughters at their first election. Hour and a half wait and worth every second. Though I live in a blue dot in a red, red state…I am encouraged.

Am I the only one worried about what happens to the votes overnight, each night?

We got “likely voters”, “registered voters”, “undecided voters”. Out of it all, after 8 years of Republican horror, those who vote Republican will most assuredly be the “ignorant voters”, the “rascist voters”, the “let’s bring our country to jesus voters”.

My wife early voted today and I went last week. We live in the Tampa FL area and support Obama. We have donated to his campaign and I am planning on donating what I can today. I have encouraged friends and family to vote early. This county reduced the number of early voting locations (Republican voter suppression) to 3 in a county of around one million people.
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If Obama wins Florida and holds all of the states that Kerry took in 2004, Obama will be the next president. Obama is leading in most of the polls in all of the important swing states.
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Polls numbers are not really as important as who comes out an actually casts a ballot. Obama has inspired people to support him. But this country remains divided and the Republicans vote in large numbers. But this year, I think more Republicans are going to vote for Obama than Democrats are going to vote for McCain. The Republican Party has been hijacked by the Wingnut scare and lie tactics and religious extreme (Palin) and racist minority.
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I can’t wait for Tuesday. Remember to vote (for Obama of course).
What happened to all the trolls? The moderator must have gotten them. Or they crawled back under what ever rock the live under because they know they have lost and it will soon be over.

KT- point taken about CM’s political aspirations, but I don’t doubt his devotion to the phillies (he’s been consistent about that for a long time), or his willingness to look goofy.
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sgwhite: I’ll get to that some time, but alas my speaker cords went the way of kitty teeth, and I haven’t repaired them yet.

Kerry lost because the young vote (college students) didn’t turn out. I think this batch of college students will turn out for Obama. If they don’t, Karl Rove will really have the last laugh.

Voter suppression is alive and well — my niece goes to a school in Missouri with students mostly from Missouri, Kansas, Arkansas, and Oklahoma. They were told since they lived on campus, they couldn’t register locally — they had to vote absentee in their home states/towns. Probably sending over a thousand votes for Obama out of Missouri to die in a deep red state. How many other small colleges across the state did the same thing?

By the time I found out and corrected her, it was too late.

[...] and calling, talking to millions of voters, one at a time. As TIME magazine’s Swampland blog explained today: Yes, it is perhaps the oldest cliche in politics to say that everything is riding on turnout. But [...]

[...] and calling, talking to millions of voters, one at a time. As TIME magazine’s Swampland blog explained today: Yes, it is perhaps the oldest cliche in politics to say that everything is riding on turnout. But [...]