The Poll Dance: No Tights

Michael – the issue is really what the polls are doing in Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Florida, since Nate Silver at 538.com has Obama winning the election >70% of the time if he wins 2 of those states, but winning only 2% of the time if he loses all three. So the national polls are much less relevant.

MS – How do you think anyone could still be undecided at this point of the campaign?

So the answer is no?

Michael, what does Senator McCain base his expectation that he will have momentum going into election day on?

Could an external event even cause a noticeable tightening of the polls now? If so, what kind of event?

Pnnto – I bet he bases that expectation on the truly remarkable number of narrow escapes he’s had. 4 plane crashes, 2 bouts with cancer. How could he not think he’d beat the odds here too?

The national polls are relevant only to the degree that they signal a “winner and loser” to voters in individual states as well as to the ground forces in those states. At some point the “undecideds” want to vote for a winner, not against him. And as the days grind on it becomes more difficult to motivate the state organizations on the losing end.

That being said, you also have to take the national polls with a big grain of salt, starting with Zogby (typically the tighest poll) using a faulty methodology. Apparently its sampling uses the same proportion of Dems and Republicans as those who voted in 2004…totally irrelevant today based on events on the ground, new registrations, likely higher turnouts of Dem-leaning populations like young voters, African-Americans, etc.

Part of the point of talking up the national polls is to keep viewers tuned in to the various cable networks. There may not be as much news day-to-day as we think…at least I hope so.

Kathy-ha- that’s pretty much what I was thinking. The words “hope” and “expect” are not exactly synonymous.

That won’t stop your journalist friends on teevee from pretending the race is tightening.

You would think that in addition to watching the tracking polls to simply see how they’re doing that the McCain camp would also use them to determine what’s working. The evidence suggests to me that they are absolutley tone-deaf as to what voters are interested in and want to hear. Part of the problem is that the folks who attend their rallies and can get all worked up with the cheerleading and name-calling are not representative voters. They’re allowing their base to skew their strategy and hurting themselves in the process.

If you read the text of Obama’s speech yesterday he talks at length about bringing people together and encouraging citizen involvment. Michelle Obama graciously declined the opportunity to make fun of Palin’s wardrobe situation on Jay Leno.

The message that comes through is clear. One side consists of decent people, the other side, of jerks.

Election night coverage will be really odd. It will be very clear what’s going on from the east coast results, given the centrality of PA, VA, GA, KY, and FL to the race. If Mitch McConnell goes down, how do you not crown Obama no matter how many hours Californians have left to vote?

Keep it up – it will only further encourage Obama supporters to get out there and make sure the (we) do our duty as citizens. Go ahead – increase the volume of the landslide .

The race *isn’t* tightening?
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oh noes! I’m worried!! he’s got us right where he wants us!!

Another one of my insightful and deserving comments has been moderated into oblivion.

Read it here:

http://politicallagoon.blogspot.com/2008/10/at-risk-of-being-self-indulgent.html

Hi everyone.

I’m not sure what to say…I guess you have to be liberal or conservative because if you’re in between (“m” word)you get sent to purgatory.

“Let’s see. Where’s my presidential election narrative guide? Ah. Now, seven days out…… Oh, how could I forget? The race is tightening.”

That anyone would expect the race to tighten after last week is really remarkable.

Man, Drudge’s banner photo has Obama working that Fancy Dan look pretty hard. 99% of Drudge’s attacks are the impressions that these photos give off, if you ask me. I expected more scary black people this week, but the Little Lord Fauntleroy play is a nice surprise.

fourlegsgood, excellent!
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Paul Dirks, they seem to be liberating comments much more quickly because yours was posted and I had read it by the time I got to your link to it on Political Lagoon. If they can’t tamp down the bot dictionary yet, at least liberating them quickly will help.

The only path I’m seeing for McCain – aside from a horrible mistake by Obama – is to make Frank Marshall a story in the last 48 hours, hope that it tightens the polls by 2-3 points, like the Gore campaign did in 2000 with Bush’s drunk driving arrest, and hope that slow voting machines reduce turnout in areas with high African-American populations in OH, FL, PA, and VA. And then blame it on the (fictitious) Bradley effect afterwards.
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It’s an extremely unlikely scenario, but I do expect that they will try to make the Marshall thing a story. It’s strange that they haven’t mentioned him yet, since the relationship is no more irrelevant than the Ayers connection. And the Bush drunk driving thing in 2000 is something political operatives study, although it’s largely been forgotten by everyone else.
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If Obama were up by 3-4 points, it might work. But 7 points seems too much of a gap to close. And his lead may expand: I saw Obama’s speech this morning, and I think it was the most effective speech I’ve ever seen him give.

coffee –

If Nate Silver is right, Obama will still be about five EV’s short after the polls close in CO & NM. If, by chance, IN turns blue the networks will face a quandary: They will have called states with more than 270 EV’s for Obama before the pacific time zone polls close, but the policy is not to call the entire election while polls are open (except, maybe, AK & HI.) They think some fantasists will regard CA, OR & WA as seriously contested, and complain about coverage influencing the vote.

It’ll be interesting to see what happens if journalistic ethics should clash with media competition. My money’s on the race to “First!”

What about all the early voting going on? I’m interested to see a breakdown on the effect early voting will have had on the election. I’ve read from many sources that 1/3 of the votes cast will be before November 4th.

Dirks–
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One of the things that was trademark Rove, trademark republican was focus-grouping everything. They have been so tone-deaf that the must not be doing so this time.
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This is related to the constant reinvention of the candidacy’s meaning and purpose. Bush had about three total messages. They focus grouped them, then hammered away.

McCain never had any singularity of purpose. One could blame this on the long primary period, but Obama’s was longer and his messaging has been very focused.

Putting aside “exit polls,” I would guess the reported east coast actual results will indicate the eventual results before the west coast polls close. If Obama is crushing VA or NC, if McConnell or Chambliss are losing or close to losing – isn’t it over?

If they can’t tamp down the bot dictionary yet, at least liberating them quickly will help.

Closely monitored heavy moderation is the best method. It’s just very expensive.

MS:
“A lot can happen in 7 days; just read your bible.”
My what? who? when?
Did you mention that you studied – and excelled in – communication/journalism? [Come to think of it, Sarah “I speak in tongues” Palin excelled in that major too, isn’t it?

OT from McClatchy

http://www.mcclatchydc.com/254/story/54851.html

Andy, thanks for that link to the McClatchy article. I think that was also discussed in the 12 part bio from the Arizona paper that I kept pushing this summer. Those McClatchy folks do journalism proud.

Andy –

Thanks indeed.

Btw, is Tucker Bounds even familiar with the concept of honesty?

Flown Over – Scoop plus ad revenue always beats ethics in the media.

Shorter Scherer: Gosh, what an exciting race!

Okay Gallup tightens by 3 points in all three models overnight. talk me down.

Kathy–
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Just check in at Nate’s place.
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MS: Markos has a message for you and your colleagues:
http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/10/28/11502/081/1009/643763

Kathy

http://people-press.org/report/465/mccain-support-declines

John McCain admits that he needs (and expects to have) the momentum on his side going into election day.
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I don’t understand the “expects to have” part. How are they going to pull that off? Call Obama more names? Are they going to make up more crap about his past?
What? Mail free jackboots to white supremacists across the country? The campaign is run by a man who thought that Sarah Palin was a wise strategic decision. What are they going to do to get back the momentum?

Cliff, on you on the GOP payroll? If they see any of your ideas, they will head out and try those new concepts…particularly the jackboot strategy.

I don’t understand the “expects to have” part
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That was asked a couple of hours ago. MS didn’t update so I expect it is just wishful thinking on McCain’s part. Or made from whole cloth by MS.

Well Andy, I figure it’s profitable to work both sides. If I can get paid for giving them terrible advice, I’m going to go for it.
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He11, if they had started paying me in the spring, they’d probably be even better off now. After all, my terrible advice is, so far, better than Kristol and Gingrich’s terrible advice!

Has the McCain camp stopped paying Mike Murphy yet?
We may say that for a wise-guy/consultant he is awfully irrelevant in The Swamp.

[...] michaelscherer | Comments (0) | Permalink | Trackbacks (0) | Email This This morning, I wrote up a post noting an apparent lack of tightening in the polls. Au contraire, objects the McCain campaign [...]