Marc Ambinder calls it an ObamaPollSplosion. I don’t know what to call it. Or if it will last. But the polls are definitely moving. (Disclaimer: The race is by no means over. Polling five weeks out is never a sure predictor of final results.) It is, however, newsworthy that Obama is breaking 50 percent all over the place. As Peter Brown of Quinnipiac said this morning in a press release, “Sen. John McCain has his work cut out for him if he is to win the presidency. There does not appear to be a role model for such a comeback in the last half century.”
First today we have Quinnipiac (Sept. 27 to 29; error +/- 3.4 percent) which puts:
–Obama up 8 points in Florida, 51 to 43
–Obama up 8 points in Ohio, 50 to 42
–Obama up 14 points in Pennsylvania, 54 to 39
McCain dismissed these polls as “laughable.” The Obama campaign said they were “a bit rosier than reality.”
Next we have today the new TIME/CNN (Sept. 28 to 30; error +/- 3.5 to 4 percent):
–Obama up by 4 points in Florida, 51 to 47
–Obama up by 11 points in Minnesota, 54 to 43
–Obama up by 1 point in Missouri, 49 to 48
–Obama up by 4 points in Nevada, 51 to 47
–Obama up by 9 points in Virginia, 53 to 44
If Bob Barr, Ralph Nader and Cynthia McKinney are included in the question the spreads get slightly larger, favoring Obama more.
Finally we get the national Pew Poll (Sept. 27 to 29; error +/- 3.5 percent) which shows Obama up 7 points, 49 to 42. The same Pew poll in mid-September showed a virtual dead heat, Obama 46 and McCain 44.
Also new registrants are breaking to Obama by a margin of 2 to 1, according to WSJ/NBC/Myspace polling.
Mark Blumenthal, of Pollster.com, provides context and charts.
UPDATE: The national daily Gallup tracking has the race slightly closer this week than last week, with Obama up 4 points, 48 to 44 (error +/- 2).
UPDATE 2: Two more: AP/GfK has Obama up 7, 48 to 41 (Sept. 27 to 30; error +/- 3.4); CBS News has Obama up 9, 50 to 41 (Sept. 27 to 30; error +/- 3).
