Pay no attention to those top-line numbers. The most interesting stat in the post-convention polling is the dramatic swing toward McCain of white women, a crucial demographic group that pollsters are watching very carefully. Obama has had trouble closing the sale here with one slice of this electorate in particular. They are older and less upscale than their predecessors, the soccer moms of 1996 and the security moms of 2004. Here’s a story that I did for TIME.com on the potential significance of this group.
UPDATE: This, from TPM Election Central, suggests the McCain campaign sees opportunity in these numbers:
The unusual ad spending also sheds a bit of light on McCain’s demographic strategy. The buys during daytime TV suggest outreach to elderly and female voters, Tracey says, both of whom the McCain camp has aggressively targeted.
“Soap operas and game shows are a way to beef up the older and female demographics,” Tracey says, adding that McCain advisers “know they need to get into these older populations that still watch daytime broadcast TV.”