Last week, the New Republic published a piece by Nate Silver–sadly, no longer available on the TNR website, so no link–measuring the so-called post-Convention bounce since, I think, 1988, and there was a pretty clear pattern: the party that went second–the incumbent party–usually had the bigger bounce. One clear exception was Bill Clinton in 1992, who followed his convention with a bracing cross-country bus tour (a novelty at the time) and had the good fortune of being followed by George H.W. Bush’s not-so-hot show.
But going second certainly worked for Bush in 1988, Gore–momentarily–in 2000 and, especially, Bush in 2004. It’s a terrific advantage, a home-team advantage, as any baseball team will tell you. John McCain certainly had it at Saddleback Church last Saturday night. It’ll be an advantage when it comes to picking his vice president. And I’d guess that, unless McCain really blows his convention, it’ll work for the Republicans this year. Indeed, the effect may be heightened by the fact that the Democratic convention will be immediately followed by the GOP, thereby blunting the Obama afterglow… McCain’s smart decision to reveal his vice presidential choice on the day after Obama’s big speech, means that Obama will have to share the stage that Thursday night with an orgy of Republican vice presidential speculation similar to the one taking place among the Democrats right now. (I”ll repeat a prejudice: the veepstakes–ugly, ugly term–is the most consistently overhyped story of any given presidential season.)
Which raises the question of why on earth the Democrats scheduled their convention soclose to the Republicans this year. Answer: they were fighting the last war. In 2004, the Republicans scheduled their convention at the last possible moment, just before Labor Day, to make maximum use of their private $$$ before the federal spending regulations kicked it. The Democrats–whose federal spending restraints kicked in the moment John Kerry was nominated–had to hold their fire through most of Swift Boat August, or thought they had to, so that they wouldn’t be at a spending disadvantage in September and October.
This time, of course, there are no federal spending restraints since Obama raised a gazillion dollars, mostly from small donors, and refused to participate in the federal system. And Obama won’t have the space to reinforce his acceptance speech as Clinton and Gore did so effectively in 1992. This is a significant disadvantage going into the fall campaign. The GOP have a much better chance of bouncing out of their convention.
On the other hand, the effect of even great convention speeches tends to be fleeting: As I’ve written here before, most presidential contests are decided in the debates. In any case, don’t be surprised if John McCain has a solid lead come mid-September. But that’s when the game will really begin.