Interesting statement today from Iraq’s prime minister Nouri al-Maliki. The Status of Forces Agreement with the U.S. seems to be in some trouble:
“We can’t extend the U.S. forces permission to arrest Iraqis or to undertake the responsibility of fighting terrorism in an independent way, or to keep Iraqi skies and waters open for themselves whenever they want,” he said. “One of the important issues that the U.S. is asking for is immunity for its soldiers and those contracting with it. We reject this totally.”
Now the chances are that this is a negotiating ploy, and the real target of the immunity request is probably “those contracting with it”–i.e. Blackwater and friends–rather than the U.S. military itself. But this is yet another sign that Maliki has gained real strength within the roil of Iraqi politics, which–forget all the benchmarks–is one real metric of political progress in Iraq. Again, as I posted the other day, Maliki’s strength comes from the successful militiary actions in Basra, Sadr City and Mosul…and I would guess that as his control over the military, and the military’s control over the country, increases, the desire for the U.S. to leave or stand down also increases.
The question is, if the Iraqis want us to send the bulk of our troops home, what choice would we have but to comply? It seems clear that Maliki wants someU.S. troops to remain, for the time being–but it’s obviously time for the Pentagon to prepare the withdrawal plan that Hillary Clinton demanded during an Armed Services Committee hearing last year (the Pentagon refused to comply with her request for information), if it hasn’t already.
Usual caveat: This could change. The various militias may be taking a pause, waiting us out. They may start throwing elbows in advance of the regional elections in Iraq next November. But one senses that Maliki now thinks his forces are strong enough to handle anything internal that might arise. He may be deluded, but it seems clear that a new reality is aborning in Iraq, and that is good news, indeed.
