Commentator Mike M. got me thinking from his posts last week about Obama’s so-called white voter problem. Obama has won non-college educated white voters in other states, notably Wisconsin. And the campaign is always quick to point out he’s also won states like Iowa, Nebraska, Kansas and Maine. He clearly does have a problem, but it’s more of a geographic one: non-college educated white voters in Appalachia stretching down through the Ozarks in Arkansas.
There’s no quick and easy way to describe these voters, who form powerful swing constituencies in Ohio, Pennsylvania, Kentucky, Tennessee, Virginia, West Virginia, Missouri and Arkansas. I think of them as the Bluegrass Vote, not to anger those horsey people who live in the swanky Bluegrass region of Kentucky, but more in lyrical terms: Bluegrass music came from the poor Irish and Anglo-Saxon immigrants who settled the Appalachian Mountains. However they are described, they could well be this cycle’s soccer moms or security dads: the constituency courted by both candidates on the belief that they can swing the election.
I happened to end up yesterday in Lexington, Kentucky, the seat of the Bluegrass region. I couldn’t resist a brief exploration into the mountains. I drove east about 65 miles until I hit the Appalachian foothills. I pulled into the first town. Full disclosure: the reporting I did was hardly scientific, merely anecdotal and Morehead, Kentucky is, perhaps, not the most typical place. First, it’s hardly the heart of Appalachia, but rather on the fringes of it. And secondly, it’s home to Morehead State University — so likely to have a higher number of Obama supporters than non-college towns.
That said, it wasn’t hard to find evidence of Obama’s problem. Turnout was high at the Carl Perkins Community Center and of the dozen (all white) voters I spoke with five voted for Hillary, four for Obama, two for McCain and one for Edwards – certainly a better showing than his actual loss to Clinton 65%-35%. Of the Hillary voters two of them said they’d vote for McCain if Obama’s the nominee (one going so far as to say that her vote wasn’t so much as in support of Hillary but against Obama) and two more said they’d likely stay home. Only one said race had anything to do with his vote and he was very upfront about it. “I ain’t gonna vote for that colored guy, he ain’t pretty,” said Willie Jessie Littleton, 70, a retired sawmill worker and lifelong Democrat who said he’d vote for McCain if Obama’s the nominee. “I don’t like the way he talks.”
Two others had obviously read scurrilous e-mails about Obama, saying they weren’t convinced Obama was a Christian and were afraid to vote for a Muslim. There is bound to be a section of these voters that are simply racist and will never vote for a black man for president. But, certainly others are more open minded and many in the region, where government is often the biggest employer, are natural Democrats when social issues are removed from the equation. One thing I know Obama is doing is veterans outreach: most of the Bluegrass areas have higher-than-normal veteran populations. Here is a story I did out today looking at Obama’s outreach to them (and McCain’s vulnerabilities with them) and how he hopes it’ll help with this constituency.
