This analysis, passed along by GWU’s John Sides, confirms what we’ve been hearing anecdotally: Early voting in Texas does not bode well for Hillary Clinton. It is up dramatically in counties with large African-American populations, as well as those with more highly educated and affluent voters–in other words, in areas that would be expected to trend toward Obama. In those heavily hispanic counties that Clinton is counting on, not so much. Sides quotes CUNY’s Brian Arbour:
There is no evidence yet that these “new early voters” are really “new voters.” They well could be those who usually vote on election day, who have decided this year to vote early.
Each of these three variables is correlated with each other. The three South Texas (and thus, most likely Clinton friendly) counties—Hidalgo, El Paso, and Nueces—are always at one end of the scale. These are the counties that have the smallest increases. The turnout measure could just be measuring something about political culture that makes voters willing to vote early rather on election day.
We don’t know who or where in each county people are voting early. While these data are consistent with an Obama surge, it could well be that turnout is high in areas in these counties where Clinton will do well. Or that demographic groups that favor Clinton—such as middle income women—are the ones creating the increase.
We have no data yet on who these people are voting for. Thus, I’m not measuring the really interesting question. We’ll still have to wait a week to get an answer.
Still, this can’t be making the Clinton campaign any less nervous.