Manchester
The polls still have John McCain comfortably ahead of Mitt Romney in the New Hampshire primary, but I don’t believe them. For one thing, McCain has just dragged himself through two of his worst debate performances ever. For another, Mitt Romney–even though under assault constantly in Saturday night’s debate–has had two of his best debate performances yet.
On Saturday night, McCain went from weird to ugly. The weird part was the first twenty minutes of the debate, the foreign policy section, which should be McCain’s kitchen–he legitimately knows more about this stuff than anyone in the Republican field–but he was dead silent. And then, in the emotional heart of the debate–the illegal immigration section–Mitt Romney, loathsome as always on this issue, had both McCain and Giuliani totally on the defensive about the definition of amnesty. Romney’s argument that a $500 fine wasn’t amnesty is ridiculous. What sort of hoops does he want the illegals to jump? Does he want all 12 million in prison? Does he want to deport them–and, if so, how? (Hillary Clinton had an extensive answer on the number of buses and law enforcement officials–tens of thousands–who would be needed to get the job done at one of her rallies today.) But McCain–nor Giuliani–had the skill to wrap that whopper around Romney’s neck. McCain’s other mistake was the unconvincing way he went negative on Romney–”You could spend your entire fortune on those ads and it wouldn’t make them true.” Why were they false? Explain, please. Then he started an assault, “You’re the real candidate of change…” but seemed to realize it was too ad hominem and didn’t finish the statement. “You’ve changed your position on every major issue.”
The futility of the various attacks on Romney was apparent in tonight’s debate: none of the Republicans chose to go after him, except Fred Thompson, who seems to be campaigning from a hammock even when he’s sitting upright…and whose toughest barbs (Ted Kennedy endorsed Romney’s Massachusetts health care plan) float across the stage like soap bubbles. That meant each of the candidates had been told by their staffs that Saturday night’s assaults hadn’t worked.
I watched tonight’s debate with the Frank Luntz focus group at the famed Merrimack Diner, while about 50 Ron Paul supporters–angry that their guy hadn’t been included–ranted and raved outside. I”m not sure this was a representative group of Republicans. They seemed pretty conservative. And they…Just. Loved. Romney. Most of those who came in undecided had switched to Mitt by the end of the show. They just adored his position on illegal immigration (their dials plummeted when McCain said we had to be “humane.”) They loved his explanation of why he had switched his position on abortion. They loved it when he nailed Huckabee as a tax raiser…in fact, Huckabee’s failure to acknowledge that he was a net raiser of taxes ended his credibility with the audience (which, since this is New Hampshire, had been wary of his flagrant religiosity from the start).
Meanwhile, McCain was nowhere. His answers lacked zing. He seemed tired. He was unable to make a vigorous case for himself as a leader–even his references back to his days in the military didn’t cut it with this Republican audience. McCain won here in 2000 because independent voters found him far more compelling than the independent alternative on the Democratic side, Bill Bradley. This time, he’s competing with Barack Obama for independents in a state decidedly more blue than it was in 2000…He may still have enough heft to win this thing. But I wouldn’t be surprised to see the race tighten or swing toward Romney over the next few days.
