CW for months has been that independents will abandon Republicans (i.e., McCain) for the Democrats (i.e., Obama) and may not match up with, you know, facts on the ground. From the latest UNH poll, taken during and after the Iowa caucuses:
Undeclared voters, often referred to as Independents, can vote in either the Democratic or Republic primary. Currently, 56% of undeclared voters say they plan to vote in the Democratic primary. Among those undeclared voters who say they will vote in the Democratic primary, Obama holds a narrow lead over Clinton by 38% to 28% with 20% favoring Edwards, and 5-6% supporting Richardson. Obama has led among undeclareds for the past month.
The number of “undeclareds” saying they’re going to participate in the Dem primary, in fact, has been trending downwards since November, from a high of 65% to the current low of 56%.