Tearing myself away from Iowa for a moment….
New York Mayor Bloomberg’s idea for a summit meeting of aging moderate poobahs to discuss an independent third party seems a bit moldy to me. Not that I’m opposed to centrism–as regular readers of Swampland know very well, I’m sort of an aging moderate not-quite-poobah myself. But there is no real potential for a moderate third party this year, and no real need for it, either.
To have a successful third party, you need a great gripe–like Ross Perot’s fiscal responsibility argument in 1992. There is none such this year, except for the prospect of continued hyperpartisanship–and any of the Democrats who can be elected (except Edwards) are going to be running against the ugliness of the past eight years. Furthermore, any of the Democrats will run in favor of such centrist talismans as fiscal responsibility, multilateralism abroad, a serious alternative energy plan. They will also–again, with the exception of Edwards–try to build a bipartisan coalition in favor of universal health insurance, a progressive idea whose time has clearly come (and which, if constructed wisely, could receive the support of much of corporate America, which is tired of footing the health insurance bill). The Democrats are leaning away from the traditional centrist entitlement reform complaint, but Obama–and Edwards–have sounded very Concord Coalition on Social Security reform. And Medicare reform will fit very neatly into a universal health insurance system.
To have a successful third party effort, you also need lots of disaffected voters in both parties–but Democrats are quite happy with their choices this year. There are plenty of disaffected Republicans, who might splinter or stay home (although a Clinton candidacy is probably the best chance to energize the GOP). You might see a Christian conservative third-party in the unlikely event that Giuliani is nominated. You will definitely see a surgette in support of the Libertarian Party, whether or not Ron Paul decides to hoist that banner himself. In any case, as miffed as moderate Democrats are with the partisans on their left, they are far more disgusted by Bush Republicanism– I don’t see many of them abandoning Clinton or Obama (or even Edwards, who will probably tune down his rant in a general election) to support Bloomberg or some other moderate chimera.
Every four years, we get a group of high-minded Mugwumps who are just shocked and appalled by the messiness of the democratic process and yearn for something more pristine. Most of the people on Bloomberg’s list are the sort who are more interested in governing than in getting themselves dirty begging for votes. It will be nice to see some of them involved in the next administration, whether Democrat or Republican. But I don’t think they have very much to add to the debate right now.