We’ve seeing a fair amount of triumphalism from the usual suspects on the right about the situation on the ground in Iraq. Premature, I think–in part because of the limits of the bottom-up strategy. We may just be in the midst of a vast Iraqi exhale before the next phase of the civil war. That phase could include renewed fighting between the newly armed Sunnis (70,000 strong!) and the sketchy Iraqi Security Forces…or a full-scale armed struggle for power between the dominant Shi’ites families–the Sadrs and Hakims–in the south. It is important to remember that most of Baghdad remains, quietly, in the control of Muqtada al-Sadr. If and when US forces start pulling out of town, we will leave the capital in Sadr’s control–a fact that remains intolerable for many Shi’ites and Sunnis. Furthermore, the Maliki government remains corrupt and dysfunctional. The Iraqi constitution, imposed by the US, remains untenable. The quagmire is as mired as ever…I still haven’t heard anyone describe a plausible endgame.
And yet: The reduction of violence is real. The defeat of Al Qaeda in Iraq–sneezed at by some antiwar commentators–is nothing to sneeze at. The bottom-up efforts to reconcile Sunnis and Shi’ites across the scarred Anbar/Karbala provincial border, which I wrote about a few weeks ago, quite possibly reflect an Iraqi exhaustion with violence that has to be taken seriously as well. There is no question that the performance of the US military has improved markedly under the smarter, more flexible and creative leadership provided this year by General Petraeus. And the withdrawal of U.S. troops is beginning. The refusal of the antiwar movement–or some sections of it–to recognize these developments isn’t helping its credibility.
Let me reassert the obvious here: The war in Iraq has been a disaster, the stupidest foreign policy decision ever made by an American President. It has weakened America’s moral, military and diplomatic status globally. It can not be “won” militarily. The best case scenario is a testy stability, most likely under a Shi’ite strongman, who will be (relatively) independent of Iran and (relatively) independent of us.
Also obvious: There are fewer votes now in Congress–and less cause–to cut off funding for the war than there were last Spring. A renewed campaign on the part of the hapless Democratic leadership to cut off the supplemental funds will only increase the public sense of Democratic futility. It will also play into the very real, and growing, public perception that Democrats are too busy wasting time on symbolic measures (like trying to cut off funds for the war) and shoveling pork (the water projects bill) to pass anything substantive for the public good. Too much time, and political capital, has been wasted fighting Bush legislatively on the war. I’m sure the President and the Republican Party are salivating over the prospect that Democrats will waste more time and capital over it this month…especially at a moment, however fleeting, when the situation on the ground seems to have improved in Iraq. Democrats need to think this over very, very carefully before they proceed.