Frankly, the thing I’ll miss the most about Fred Thompson’s campaign when it’s over will be almost endless pun opportunities. It’s the one area of his political resume where he can claim the same status as “Bush.”
But will his campaign end in the White House? Or even at the Republican National Convention? His campaign has characterized his late entry and “low key” (that’s reporter-speak for “lazy”) style as the folksy tortoise to the other candidates’ manic hares, but Washington pundits are unimpressed. The NYT’s Adam Nagourney laid into Fred in a piece today that so firmly encapsulates the Beltway CW, you almost hope it’s wrong:
Twenty-four minutes after he began speaking in a small restaurant the other day, Fred D. Thompson brought his remarks to a close with a nod of his head and an expression of thanks to Iowans for allowing him to “give my thoughts about some things.”
Then he stood face to face with a silent audience.
“Can I have a round of applause?” Mr. Thompson said, drawing a rustle of clapping and some laughter.
“Well, I had to drag that out of you,” he said.
[snip]
At a late-afternoon rally in Cedar Falls, Beverly Denney said she admired what he said and was likely to support him, but suggested that he had been outshone on the podium by local Iowa legislators who had introduced him. “I’m sure this is his fourth event of the day,” she said. (It was, but one of them was a “walking tour of Downtown Iowa Falls” that took him to two stores and lasted less than 15 minutes.)
Sure, it sounds like he’s quoting an actual Iowan, but that parenthetical is the voice of the DC chattering class. Do they have a point? That’s what I try to answer in today’s SwampCast:
Left on the cutting room floor:
Details about those numbers that DO mean something for Fred: money and polls. His campaign touts an impressive $200k/day since he formally announced, but expecting that pace to continue is a little like thinking you’ll keep getting Christmas presents through the Fourth of July. A better number: 80K, as in 80K individual donors — not much compared to Obama or Hillary, but good for the Republican field. As for polls, his national numbers are softening even as he looks to be ticking up in Iowa.
Polls further suggest that his support is strongest among religious conservatives and other base Republican voters, perhaps those who might bolt from the party if Giuliani gets the nom. But Fred’s own politics are hardly thoroughly rightwing. There’s his stance on gay marriage, his co-authorship of McCain-Feingold, and his refusal to back a constitutional amendment banning abortion. Oh, and he once lobbied on behalf of a pro-choice group. Just last night, he told Sean Hannity that just as soon never speak to James Dobson (head of Focus on the Family, ur-evangelical), who’s criticized him in the past: “I don’t particularly care to have a conversation with him. If he wants to call up and apologize again, that’s ok with me. But I’m not going to dance to anybody’s tune.” (That last bit is what puts the “folk” in folksy!)
Will cultural conservatives have second thoughts as the get to know the candidate better? For now, his campaign is keeping a lot of Fred’s specific policy and political views out of the spotlight. Todd Harris, Fred’s spokeguy, says details don’t convince Iowans, anyway: “You can never prove to someone you can keep them safe with a 27 point plan; it’s a gut feeling.” (This may come as a disappointment to Hillary “27 point plan” Clinton.) Again, the DC Establishment chides Thompson for his vagueness, but Harris assured me that the line that makes most reporters laugh — “Keep doing what works, and stop doing what doesn’t” — is Fred’s most reliable applause line.
Of course, that could be relative.