There was one piece of news last week that hit Republicans even harder than Larry Craig’s wide stance in the Minneapolis airport men’s room, and that was the announcement by Virginia Senator John Warner that he will not run for re-election next year. Virginia has been trending purple in the last few cycles, and the vacancy puts that seat very much within the grasp of Democrats, particularly if former Governor Mark-No-Relation-to-John Warner decides to run for it.
So we thought it worthwhile to check in with Mudcat Saunders, our very own former Swampland Guest Blogger (or as the High Sheriff likes to think of him, Mudcat Emeritus Lux Et Veritas). He was a key adviser in Warner’s 2001 gubernatorial race, and last year, strategized with Jim Webb. He’s also advising John Edwards in his 2008 presidential race.
Here, unedited and unfiltered, is what Mudcat has to say:
Swampland asked me to write my thoughts on what is going to happen with Mark Warner and the Virginia Senate seat that comes open next year with last week’s retirement of John Warner. Since I’ve missed some of you, I decided to do it. I’ll come on tonight and rap about this if you have questions. First, I’d like to say something about John, not Mark. No matter how very much some of you hate Republicans, never, never forget that John Warner threw an independent Republican into Virginia’s 1994 Senate race after Oliver North got the Republican nomination. John Warner single-handedly kept that bastard Ollie North out of Washington. Republican or not, Senator Warner (if not canonized) should at least get a big statue for that one act. I’ll contribute.
Turning to Mark, the US Senate seat is his if he wants it. So much has been made of the speed-of-light growth in recent years in Northern Virginia, and with it, the huge Democratic trend. That obviously plays to Mark’s favor. However, the real hammer in Mark’s tool box is his incredible popularity in other areas of the state, particularly the rural areas. In 2001, he became the first Democratic candidate in any state-wide election in a generation to win a majority of the vote in rural Virginia. Mark understood the power of culture and became a champion of the culture. Absolutely nothing has changed. Today in rural Virginia, Mark Warner can draw a crowd quicker than Tim McGraw. Tim Craig from the Washington Post called a few minutes ago, and I told him if we grew palm trees in these mountains instead of red oaks that Bubba would be waving palm leaves when Warner came through town. Honestly, they love him that much. Even the most mathematically-challenged members of our party can look at an electoral map of Virginia, do a very few numbers, and figure this one out. No Republican can beat Mark Warner because they would have to cream him outside of Nova, and it simply ain’t going to happen. The only question in setting the line on this race is who’s at the top of the ticket in the Presidential slot.
The national press, for some reason or another, has not gotten around to talking about the “collateral damage” that the polarizing effect of Hillary Clinton at the top of the ticket would inflict on other races all over America. It’s whispered all over the Capitol but not shouted out anywhere. How would you like to be a Democratic member of the House or Senate in a red state and have to deal with Hillary at the top of the ticket? Hell, we will not only lose the White House in 2008, but could lose the House and Senate as well. What scares me is I believe in my heart that if Mark doesn’t run, no other Democrat could beat Tom Davis in Virginia with Hillary at the top. This is still Virginia.
So here’s my early line. With Hillary at the top: Mark wins by 5-8. With Obama at the top, Mark wins by 7-10. With Edwards at the top: Mark wins by 15-plus.
Lines aside…somebody (with more juice than me) needs to talk Mark into running. This is a huge pickup. It would be a crime to allow the Republicans to hold this seat, and Mark is the only guy we’ve got who could fight off the possible “collateral damage”.