Given his passionate biases, it’s not often I find myself persuaded by a Dick Morris column. But in The Hill today he writes a fairly cogent and sober piece arguing that President Bush’s only hope of saving the GOP from devastating losses in 2008 is to begin withdrawing troops now. Despite Morris’ intemperate loathing of Sen. Clinton, this point actually makes some sense to me:
Hillary’s stand — demanding a start to the withdrawal but not setting an end date — gives Bush the flexibility he needs to begin to pull out and stretch the process as long as he has to in order to have some hope of achieving his objective. The back end of Clinton’s position — that sufficient troops should remain to provide intelligence, logistical, air, and training support to the Iraqi Army and to prevent Iranian infiltration and hunt al Qaeda operatives in the provinces — will make it hard for her to differentiate her position from Bush’s once the withdrawal starts.
The mainstream of the American public is not going to go to the ramparts over 10,000 or 20,000 troops for a few months one way or the other. For those on the left who do, they will find Hillary’s proposals as unsatisfying as they are going to find Bush’s slow pullout pace. Right now they don’t notice the limitations on Hillary’s position because Bush is against any pullout ever. But if the president begins to withdraw, the left will scrutinize the details of Hillary’s program and find it wanting.
If Bush were to shift position and begin a gradual drawdown, it would be difficult for Democrats like Clinton, who support leaving some troops in Iraq for the longer term, to differentiate themselves from the President. That’s a reasonable conclusion. It doesn’t necessarily track, however, that the result would be salvation from ruin for the GOP in 2008. And, of course, in Cleveland yesterday Bush gave no indication that he’s ready to consider drawing down troops, so Morris’ theory may never be tested. Says he:
But Bush faces a stark choice: If he doesn’t begin pulling out, his party will lose the White House, lose Congress by stunning and likely filibuster-proof margins, and his tax cut and education reforms will be repealed. His footsteps will be obliterated from history. It will be as if he never served.
As if he never served? Hardly. But we get the point.