It looks like the Maliki government is headed for collapse or reshuffling. Iraqslogger reports that the Sadrist bloc in the parliament is about to ask no-confidence vote on Maliki, which is likely to be supported by the Sunni Tuwafaq bloc. For his part, Maliki seems to be headed toward an overt anti-Sadr position–and an attempt to build a new governing coalition. All of which means…
Chaos is as likely an Iraqi possibility as reconciliation. And while there are some–especially among the aides to General Petraeus–who are hoping that Maliki will build a new Sadr-less governing coalition, Ambassador Ryan Crocker is skeptical: “It just takes too long for them to negotiate a new government. We don’t have the time.” A Maliki government sans Sadr–the most popular Shi’ite leader–might also lead to increased internecine Shi’ite violence, especially in Baghdad, where Sadr controls most neighborhoods, and in the Southern provinces.
I suspect the political situation in Iraq warrants more attention than the maneuverings in Washington this week. Bush isn’t about to change his policy and the Democrats still aren’t close to getting the 67 votes needed to force a change.
