Jonathan Martin takes that SC poll more seriously than I do, but his analysis is interesting even if the numbers may be suspect:
So McCain actually sinks to fifth, below Huckabee, among those immigration-obsessed South Carolinians. Worse, immigration is effectively the second-most important issue to likely GOP primary voters in the state (most Republicans view Iraq/terrorism/war on terror/security as feathers of the same bird). As even his most ardent supporters concede — and Sen. Lindsey Graham did yesterday on “This Week” — McCain is taking a hit in the state on immigration.
Incidentally, not helping the cause is President Bush, who, desperate for a second-term domestic legacy and genuinely passionate about the matter, has not and will not throw in the towel despite uphill sledding in the House. It’s almost the worst of both worlds for McCain, because the issue remains on the front-burner, but is unlikely to get to a point (i.e. a bill signing) where he can frame it in a positive light (i.e. “solving the hard problems”) and move on. So it sort of hangs in a damaging purgatory, not dead but also not resolved.
And McCain realizes this. His campaign realizes this. And he’s said, repeatedly, that if getting the immigration bill through means losing the nomination, “it would be worth it.” But, increasingly, it looks like he’ll lose both. And the Republicans will lose the only major candidate with a real conservative record. I really don’t get them sometimes.