With the NY Times reporting serious obstacles in the path of an Iraqi oil-revenue law–which should be the easiest “benchmark” for the Iraqi government to meet–and the Washington Post reporting that the Democrats have made the first move toward a compromise with the President on Iraq war funding, the question comes: Is the deal favored by Senate Armed Services Chair Carl Levin and, apparently, a moderate consensus in the Senate–funding with benchmarks rather than timetables–worth pursuing?
I’d say: a qualified yes. Qualified…because such a bill would likely be toothless. The bill Levin wants has teeth (reductions in funding for the Iraqi government if the benchmarks aren’t met) and a tooth extractor (a waiver giving the President authority to restore the funding in a “crisis” situation).
But I’d still say Yes, it’s worth it, because of the likelihood that such benchmarks will go unmet–and the next-to-last pillar of the President’s argument for continuing the war will be demolished. (The last pillar is Bush’s grossly exaggerated “fighting Al Qaeda” riff.) Why is this important? Because David Petraeus is on record–constantly, and yet constantly ignored by the McCain-Lieberman sorts–as saying that his mission can’t succeed unless there is a political solution in Iraq. His working definition of a political solution: the Iraqi government meets the benchmarks that it set for itself–benchmarks Bush has endorsed. An oil deal. Disbanding the militias (ha!). Local elections. Constitutional reforms guaranteeing a major role for the Sunnis in the government. That sort of thing…
If the President signs even a toothless version of this bill to continue funding until the end of the fiscal year (September 30, 2007), and the Iraqi government does not meet the benchmarks, there will be a massive stampede of Republicans to abandom ship come September. Bush will have a very difficult time getting a “clean” bill–without withdrawal timetables–thru the Congress come October. Yes, I know “clean” is Orwell for “dirty.”
Some caveats: Even if he’s abandoned by everybody except Joe Lieberman, Bush will hang on till the bitter end of his administration, finding funding for the war…creatively, strip-mining the rest of the Pentagon budget to fund the troops. (Which might relieve of us some ghastly pork barrel weapons systems). I’m also aware that the leftosphere will see this as a total cave, Congress merely granting Bush another Friedman unit (six months) to keep the insanity going. True enough.
But I also think a bill with benchmarks could set the predicate for a total Bush meltdown and perhaps even a concession come October–especially if General Petraeus continues to be honest about the chances of success without a political settlement. Given the U.S. Constitution, that’s about the most we can reasonably hope for…And remember, any withdrawal has to be planned and careful.