At the Washington Post, Al Kamen is giving one to the 10 people who guess closest in what he is calling the In the Loop Pardon Scooter Contest. Kamen is even offering sort of an over-under, deeming the most likely times to be around the June 5 sentencing, or when the U.S. Appeals Court for the D.C. Circuit announces its decision on the appeal, which he says has been averaging 15 months of late. That would make it September 2008, which would be just a couple of months before … well, maybe not. Any later would get us into the final month or so of the presidency, which is the equivalent of the Christmas shopping rush for pardons. So will the smart money go with sooner?
Reply to commenter Eric: Point taken. I’ve deferred to our legal experts on the serious analysis, because I think the political implications are so obvious: This is very, very bad for the Bush Administration politically, and is going to dog them right through to the end of his term and into the history books. I also think the phrase “fall guy” is going to become the one you hear most frequently from the lips of every Democrat (not to mention at least one juror already).
Reply to Jake Gittes: Please keep an eye out for the print version of the magazine, which will probably be on the website tomorrow.